2008 TCR late update: Gustav upgraded to 135 kt

[CrazyC83]

I just was browsing the TCR's and noticed they declared that land report valid and upgraded Gustav's peak intensity to 135 kt. Good call IMO, I would have also changed the Isle of Youth intensity up to 130 kt in line with the higher than aircraft estimates, and adjusted the pressures to 939mb at the Isle of Youth landfall (instead of 943mb, because of the land report disregarded) and 937mb at the Cuba landfall (based on continued strengthening).

The Louisiana estimate of 90 kt/954mb is unchanged; the wind estimate seems reasonable but I would drop the pressure to 952mb based on land data that was disregarded.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072008_Gustav.pdf

[HURAKAN]

WOW. I was not expecting this update.

[CrazyC83]

It actually came out 10 days ago but it was very well hidden. I was just browsing the TCR's and found it. There could be a case for upgrading to 140 kt if they thought that was in open water, but it was intensifying right up to landfall and the RFQ would have been on land at that point. Plus a Cat 5 with a pressure of 941 (officially - 937 is my estimate but still) would be quite unusual considering its size.

There are quite a few things I would change in the BT personally.

[Ptarmigan]

Charley had 941 mb and winds of 130 knots. Gustav had 941 mb and 130 knots, yet it was larger than Charley. Unless Gustav was in an area of higher ambient pressure. Gustav would have the strongest winds for the 2008 season, while Ike had the lowest pressure. I wonder if there will be a re-analysis for Ike?

[CrazyC83]

Charley had 941 mb and winds of 130 knots. Gustav had 941 mb and 130 knots, yet it was larger than Charley. Unless Gustav was in an area of higher ambient pressure. Gustav would have the strongest winds for the 2008 season, while Ike had the lowest pressure. I wonder if there will be a re-analysis for Ike?

Doubtful for Ike, since it seemed to be well-covered and its peak intensity was before Recon even got to it. The only other storm I would bump up is Paloma, I think it was 130 kt at its peak (at 08/1500) since there was a gap between a 127 kt SFMR and a 142 kt FL estimate (and I think it peaked in between).

135 kt winds (Gustav's new estimate) would normally support a pressure around 928mb in the Caribbean, so the ambient pressure had to be quite high at the time as it was not a small storm like Charley or Felix was, even if the pressure was a bit lower than the official 941mb.

[RattleMan]

This TCR also brings another change; the 31/0000z wind speed has been changed from 125 to 120, bringing its ACE down:

Code: Select all

   07L.Gustav   
Adv #   Knots   ACE
1   25   0
2   30   0
3   35   0.1225
4   50   0.25
5   60   0.36
6   75   0.5625
7   80   0.64
8   70   0.49
9   50   0.25
10   45   0.2025
11   45   0.2025
12   45   0.2025
13   40   0.16
14   45   0.2025
15   60   0.36
16   60   0.36
17   60   0.36
18   55   0.3025
19   50   0.25
20   65   0.4225
21   75   0.5625
22   85   0.7225
23   110   1.21
24   125   1.5625
25   120   1.44
26   105   1.1025
27   100   1
28   95   0.9025
29   95   0.9025
30   95   0.9025
31   95   0.9025
32   85   0.7225
33   60   0.36
34   40   0.16
35   30   0


Thus 2008's ACE goes down:

Before:

Code: Select all

   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.53%
BT   Bertha   28.4   19.65%
BT   Cristobal   3.8125   2.64%
BT   Dolly   5.445   3.77%
BT   Edouard   1.6975   1.17%
BT   Fay   7.29   5.04%
BT   Gustav   18.275   12.65%
BT   Hanna   10.4125   7.21%
BT   Ike   39.0075   26.99%
BT   Josephine   3.07   2.12%
BT   Kyle   5.425   3.75%
BT   Laura   0.905   0.63%
BT   Marco   1.3175   0.91%
BT   Nana   0.49   0.34%
BT   Omar   8.9825   6.22%
BT   Paloma   9.2025   6.37%
   TOTAL   144.505   


After:

Code: Select all

   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.54%
BT   Bertha   28.4   19.67%
BT   Cristobal   3.8125   2.64%
BT   Dolly   5.445   3.77%
BT   Edouard   1.6975   1.18%
BT   Fay   7.29   5.05%
BT   Gustav   18.1525   12.57%
BT   Hanna   10.4125   7.21%
BT   Ike   39.0075   27.02%
BT   Josephine   3.07   2.13%
BT   Kyle   5.425   3.76%
BT   Laura   0.905   0.63%
BT   Marco   1.3175   0.91%
BT   Nana   0.49   0.34%
BT   Omar   8.9825   6.22%
BT   Paloma   9.2025   6.37%
   TOTAL   144.3825   


[CrazyC83]

Yep I caught that and updated it on Wikipedia when I went to update the relevant articles; the peak intensity was an intermediate point so it (and was not) reflected in the ACE.

[RattleMan]

And another change:

"Selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3. Gustav brought hurricane conditions to portions of western Cuba, with the strongest winds reported at Paso Real de San Diego in Pinar del Rio province. This station (elevation 10 m) reported a 1-minute wind of 135 kt at 2235 UTC 30 August with a peak gust of 184 kt. The World Meteorological Organization investigated the report (See wmo.asu.edu/world-maximum-surface-wind-gust-TC for more information) and determined a) that the data were valid and, b) the gust was a world record for a wind gust associated with a tropical cyclone."

From the older version:

"Selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3. Gustav brought hurricane conditions to portions of western Cuba, with the strongest winds reported at Paso Real de San Diego in Pinar del Rio province. This station (elevation 10 m) reported a 1-minute wind of 135 kt at 2235 UTC 30 August with a peak gust of 184 kt. The World Meteorological Organization has been investigating the validity of the report as a possible world record wind gust in a tropical cyclone. As of this writing, the data appear valid. However, these winds are possibly associated with a transient eyewall mesovortex and enhanced by terrain affects."