Slow Seasons Comparison

[blp]

Well we are closing in on October and unless TD 8 does something we may not have anything else for the next 10-15 days if the long range models are correct. I am having trouble sleeping, so I decided to do some research on what we might expect the rest of the year. I am by no means an expert so if you see something wrong let me know, I just enjoy this stuff as most of you do. Below are some comparison maps of seasons with similar conditions. It is interesting that there are several other seasons that are similar to this one. One thing is that we get an awful lot of central Atlantic and mid MDR activity, I think the older years also had a lot of activity further east, but no satellite, which would match up well with recent years. I could not find any real stricking similarities. The closest I see, 2009(So far, 1 gulf, 1 carribean),1940(2 carribean, 1 gulf), 2006 (1 Carribean, 1 Gulf), 1997(1 gulf).

Criteria:
1)Active phase (1995-current) and last active phase (1926-1969)
2)El Nino seasons within these active phases (http://www.science-house.org/nesdis/eln ... round.html)
1925-1926 1930-1931
1932-1933 1939-1940 1941-1942 1951-1952
1953-1954 1957-1958 1965-1966 1969-1970 1997-1998 2006-2007
3)Seasons that had 11 or less storms as is predicted this year by NOAA (7-11).
4)Seasons that had the 8th system after mid Sept in as is our case this year.

Maps from http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html

2009 (8 Tropical Depression EIGHT 25-current SEP)

2006 (8 Hurricane GORDON 10-24 SEP)

1997 (8 Tropical Storm GRACE 14-17 OCT)

1970 (8 Tropical Storm GRETA 26 SEP- 5 OCT)

1966 (8 Tropical Storm HALLIE 20-22 SEP )

1958 (8 Hurricane HELENE 21 SEP- 4 OCT)

1957 (8 Tropical Storm #8 23-27 OCT)

1954 (8 Hurricane #8 25 SEP- 7 OCT )

1951 (8 Hurricane HOW 28 SEP- 8 OCT)

1942 (8 Tropical Storm #8 10-12 OCT)

1940 (8 Tropical Storm #8 24-26 OCT)

1932 (8 Tropical Storm #8 7-18 OCT )

1931 (8 Tropical Storm #8 18-22 OCT)

1926 (8 Hurricane #8 21 SEP- 1 OCT )

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting. I notice in general in seasons like 2009, they either form in the middle of the Atlantic and become fish storms or form in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall.

[jinftl]

If everyone one of the storms on the maps above had made landfall at peak intensity, those seasons would not be considered 'slow'. It is the combination of below average # of storms....along with few/no landfalls...that really are the determining factors of how a season goes down in history.

The 1992 season will always serve as an example of that.....seven named storms for the whole season and only one major. Sounds on par with the current season, right? Other than the $40 billion (in current $) storm that was Andrew.

The 2000 season had 15 names storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 majors.....total damage for the entire season was barely over $1 billion across the entire basin. The 2009 season has had about 1/4 of that damage so far.....mainly from Bill (estimated damages $250 million). That 2000 season damage total could easily be beat in the remaining months of the 2009 season by a wet tropical storm even.

[Ptarmigan]

If everyone one of the storms on the maps above had made landfall at peak intensity, those seasons would not be considered 'slow'. It is the combination of below average # of storms....along with few/no landfalls...that really are the determining factors of how a season goes down in history.

The 1992 season will always serve as an example of that.....seven named storms for the whole season and only one major. Sounds on par with the current season, right? Other than the $40 billion (in current $) storm that was Andrew.

The 2000 season had 15 names storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 majors.....total damage for the entire season was barely over $1 billion across the entire basin. The 2009 season has had about 1/4 of that damage so far.....mainly from Bill (estimated damages $250 million). That 2000 season damage total could easily be beat in the remaining months of the 2009 season by a wet tropical storm even.

Very true. In fact I came up with a formula based on how many times a storm makes landfall and how many people died, which includes direct, indirect, and missing. I did not include strength of the storm because weak and strong ones have been deadly. I called it the Impact Score and I find it a good way to gauge how active the season really is based on impact.

The formula is:
Wind Speed in Knots Based On Impact/Landfall Sum of Square * Number of deaths and missing * 2^How Many Times The Storm Made Landfall * Peak Wind / 1000000



Example:
Hurricane Ike (2008)
(110^2 + 115^2 + 70^2 + 95^2) * 195 * 2^4 * 125 / 1000000 = 15307.5
Total Impact (Landfall or Not) Death Toll Landfall Point Peak Wind

Some inactive seasons had really high Impact Scores, while active seasons had low Impact Scores.

Inactive Season With High Impact Scores Example:
1900
1930
1994

Active Season With Low Impact Scores Example:
1995
2000

[Category 5]

Active Season With Low Impact Scores Example:
1995
2000

1995? Really? Tell that to anyone on the Florida Panhandle or in the Islands.

[Ptarmigan]

1995? Really? Tell that to anyone on the Florida Panhandle or in the Islands.

I know 1995 was really bad for those areas. The formula is still a work in progress. I would like to include damage cost as well, but that changes because of inflation.