40-Day Chi 200 hPa and October Development

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gatorcane
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40-Day Chi 200 hPa and October Development

#1 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 01, 2009 9:43 pm

I'm looking at the 40-day Chi and it looks like by about mid October sinking air (orange) is replaced by less rising air across much of the Atlantic basin. This sinking air pattern has been in the Atlantic for nearly all of September in which we saw a very inactive month, it may show signs of changing. Of particular interest is the Chi forecast for the Western Caribbean which shows the the most rising air relatively speaking if we look across the Atlantic. Note the light shade of green there.

So it looks like in a couple of weeks, by mid October, there may be blobs to watch across the Atlantic, and I'm particularly interested in the WCAR blobs albeit despite a weak el nino lurking.

Thoughts?

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Re: 40-Day Chi 200 hPa and October Development

#2 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:17 am

I am even more interested to see what happens in the shorter term as depicted with the 15 day chart:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

If there is going to be a hurricane problem for any land mass, it is my opinion that it will come during this period and from the western Caribbean or GOM. Thinking too that since the El Nino is on its way out and is off its peak that perhaps, just perhaps, there is a shot of a mid-October hurricane that someone will have to deal with. Fits in with climatology too but then again, this has been a tough year. We'll see, time is almost up.
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Re: 40-Day Chi 200 hPa and October Development

#3 Postby perk » Fri Oct 02, 2009 7:53 am

hurricanetrack wrote:I am even more interested to see what happens in the shorter term as depicted with the 15 day chart:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

If there is going to be a hurricane problem for any land mass, it is my opinion that it will come during this period and from the western Caribbean or GOM. Thinking too that since the El Nino is on its way out and is off its peak that perhaps, just perhaps, there is a shot of a mid-October hurricane that someone will have to deal with. Fits in with climatology too but then again, this has been a tough year. We'll see, time is almost up.

hurricanetrack you make a good point, but after september i flip my switch from tropical weather to winter weather, but if need be i can switch back. :D
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Re: 40-Day Chi 200 hPa and October Development

#4 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 02, 2009 9:02 am

The charts do show rising air in a week or two, but they don't depict shear. Wind shear is moderate to high and on the increase across the tropics. Big question is, will there be any areas with shear low enough to allow for development in October?

I suspect we'll see 1-2 named storms, but probably something like the disturbance near the Bahamas which may develop as it accelerates off to the north and out to see (or toward the Canadian Maritimes).
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#5 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Oct 02, 2009 9:06 am

I wouldn't rule out the W Carib or GOM either. The Oct. fronts dropping down into the GOM are worth mentioning here as a possibility.
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#6 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 02, 2009 10:01 pm

Thanks for the feedback, GFS starting to come on board with a wave that traverses the Caribbean and blows up in the WCAR around 7 days from now, about the time the rising air would hit the WCAR (a fews days prior).
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