Strong Wave east of Windward islands

[cycloneye]

I am surprised that a thread for this fairly strong wave has not been made.Some hints by models of some development is a factor I made this thread.Lets see what happens down the road with the models and more important with the wave.Hey peeps,even if nothing occurs in terms of development,lets talk about it like the name of this forum

I am posting one model that shows some development.

CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

The wave of this topic is around 35W.

[Macrocane]

Euro has been very consistent since October 1, and it has been showing development of a TD in every run since that day. Let's wait and see.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS moves this wave as a very vigorous wave west into and through the Caribbean. Something to watch for sure since October is prime month for waves to blow-up in the Caribbean. CMC is the most bullish so far with that WNW movement through the Leewards, Puerto Rico, and into the Greater Antilles under a solid H5 ridge across the Western and Central Atlantic.

Cycloneye, its quite clear the majority of the board has fallen asleep since September (and this year for that matter) has been so slow. But with 2 months left in the season, and alot of October which tends to favor Caribbean development closer to home for most of us on this board, you'll see me checking the tropics continuously until Nov. 30th when it is officially over

[expat2carib]

I'm awake and watching this one. And yes it has been a boring.... long.... (GOOD ) season until now.

[Emmett_Brown]

Convection on the increase, starting to look invest worthy. Still lots of shear in its path, but GFS (which has not done a very good job of forecasting shear lately) shows shear decreasing somewhat during the next 48 hours, for whatever that is worth. If the shear decreases, this could be a player.

[jinftl]

Convection on the increase...

[cycloneye]

There is a good deal of shear just to its north.If it passes and survives that area,it may have a shot further west.

[Blown Away]

CMC still develops a TS from the wave near 40W and moves it through Hispaniola towards the SE Bahamas. Looks like a nice little system until it goes through Hispaniola. Nice ridge building as this system nears the SE Bahamas. Goes through PR on its way, something for Luis to watch.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Double post alert on me!!!

[gatorcane]

There is a high chance this will be mentioned by NHC at 2AM EST update. Code yellow likely, but I think they will indicate that some slow development is possible as moves west to west-northwest.

Shear is a bit high for the next couple of days but shear tendency is indicating the shear is finally starting to gradually lessen across much of the western MDR and the Western Atlantic basin. Perhaps this will allow a few systems to organize this month.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[abajan]

We certainly shouldn't let our guard down. The infamous "Great Hurricane" of October 1780 that devastated much of the Caribbean should always be kept in mind at this time of year IMO.

[leanne_uk]

Sat pics on this still looking promising. Cant post them as on the mobile.
Would not be suprised to see a code yellow on this soon

[jconsor]

Quikscat this morning shows a broad, though not yet closed, circulation. Water vapor loops indicate outflow is improving significantly in the north and east quadrants. The tropical wave is enveloped by a westward-building upper level high, and has a decent chance of development by Tue or Wed.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE WAVE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 33W-43W AS
OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED PRIMARILY W OF THE WAVE AXIS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 33W-44W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

The Canadian model has a low rider going into the Caribbean in the 00z run.I would want to see more models showing this system not only CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

SAL

[cycloneye]

Code Yellow

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN