BOC

[Sanibel]

The formation is right but conditions are too weak to support development.

[CourierPR]

The formation is right but conditions are too weak to support development.

I spotted that area this am and it looks like a healthy blob of convection. Any chance of getting at least a hybrid out of this?

[wxman57]

It's zipping off to the NE Now. Upper level winds are out of the southwest at 55-70 kts above it. It shouldn't amount to much except for a few heavy squalls.

[Sanibel]

As soon as I posted that I looked again and saw there was obvious shear ripping over it. Too lazy to even bother to correct my own posts this season. EVERYTHING has no chance.

[IvanSurvivor]

What's this?...Just saw on another site:


UKMET office is forecasting a storm to form tonight in the GOM.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.9N 95.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2009 25.9N 95.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2009 27.6N 92.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2009 28.8N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[lrak]

This new storm will have a hard time, I saw that Corpus Christi's low will be in the 50s tomorrow. That means the cold front will sweep through the GOM instead of stall, so can a storm ride a front like a Cowboy?

[wxman57]

Just a weak frontal wave in a high-shear environment, at most.

[lrak]

NOT ONE memorable swell this season, but at least I have a good friend who has a place in Mexico!

I've seen this place and there's a few good breaks around Punta. That hole is not to good when condition are good for me

[HURAKAN]

What's this?...Just saw on another site:


UKMET office is forecasting a storm to form tonight in the GOM.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.9N 95.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2009 25.9N 95.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2009 27.6N 92.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2009 28.8N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Sanibel]

Another good example of the wack nature of models.

[drezee]

if you look to the south you will see what looking like an ash plume coming out of the BoC...weird...

[lrak]

suspicious!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Sanibel]

That kind of tail end front is what you would look for in a normal year. But 2009 has provided nothing but busts except for two systems that hit two of the few available formation pockets.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like a bit of a spin nevertheless:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

[cycloneye]

If the models are correct,this area will have to be watched in the comming days.

[lrak]

persistences! I've been watching it all weekend.

[Sanibel]

Right now it looks like sheared convection but it could be a change in favorability finally letting one form. A little late for conditions to support. If it did form I wish it would head over here and top us off for dry season with 10 inches of rain.

[cycloneye]

Todays discussion from Dr Jeff Masters about the potential of this area in the comming days.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

[jconsor]

Latest HPC discussion:

THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL AND/OR
HYBRID SURFACE LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DAYS 6/7...WITH THE
CANADIAN ORIGINATING THE LOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ECMWF
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE GFS POSSIBLY FROM BOTH REGIONS.
SPEED/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE LOW ARE ALSO CONSIDERABLE BY
DAY 7 AND ARE DUE IN PART TO SOLUTION DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

[Sanibel]

Has the shape but IR is too warm IMO.