tropical storm cleo, travel advice needed!

[gcolive]

dear storm2k,

first-time poster, thanks to all of you who make this such a cool community. sorry to post this in a new thread-- i needed a quick response, and will delete it in a few days, if that's alright. it's a bit of an unusual circumstance.

my dad is en route to the south indian ocean as we speak, and i've been trying to look at the data on TC Cleo to figure out whether he should cancel his trip. could anyone else who has been following this storm share an opinion? his first international flight doesn't leave until 7pm, and if he's going to cancel it would be better to do so before leaving the US. i would appreciate it very much.

he is headed to 'cargados carajos', aka st. brandon's atoll, for a fishing trip. it's northeast of mauritius, coordinates are 16°35′S 59°37′E. he's supposed to be there from the 10th to the 20th of december. if it were you, would you even bother?

i've been poring over the latest info but am no good at interpreting it. thanks in advance. have a great day everyone!

best,
george

[HURAKAN]

If the tracks are correct, the storm could pass close to the Cargados Carajos (16S, 59E). It may not be a direct hit, but the storm surge from Cleo would make it very difficult for a fishing trip to occur. It would be too dangerous to go out with a rough sea. In 5 days (Dec. 13), the JTWC thinks the center will be near 15.4s 58.8e, which is very close to the atoll. I hope this helps.

Btw, welcome to S2k!

[wxman57]

It does look like Cleo may pass close to the atoll around the 13th of December (5-6 days). They should expect 2-3 days of rough conditions offshore as it approaches and passes. Hurricane-force winds are forecast to cover only a small area, so chances of a direct hit by the core of more intense winds on the small atoll are low. Storm surge would probably be negligible due to the very deep water just offshore.

[Iune]

Also, you might want to wait a little more to see, Cleo is going down fast and is a Severe Tropical Storm by RSMC La Reunion and a Tropical Storm by the JTWC. Depending on this trend, you might want to see what happens at the end of the day.