GFDL=Fabians destination Miami as a hurricane?

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03082017

Well now let's see what the other global models say but this one mantains the disturbance all along into the western caribbean on a WNW track towards Cuba and then getting very close to Miai but we know that so far out in time is too early to know what track and intensity it will get. .

[Vortex]

GFDL takes Fabian2b in the vicinity of the Fl Keys at the end of the run. Lets watch for trends.

[Rainband]

GFDL takes Fabian2b in the vicinity of the Fl Keys at the end of the run. Lets watch for trends.

Too close for comfort for me!!! :o

[wxman57]

I have the 18Z GFDL printed out (didn't come to my e-mail this time, though).

HR lat/lon heading/speed (kts)
0 13/60 270/14
6 13.4/60.6 305/7
12 13.4/62.7 272/20
18 13.7/64.3 278/16
24 14.4/65.7 296/15
30 14.9/67.2 287/16
36 15.2/67.9 315/13
42 15.6/69.3 290/13
48 16.5/70.3 315/13
54 17.0/71.5 290/13
60 17.4/72.5 294/10
66 18.0/73.5 299/12
72 18.8/74.4 315/12
78 19.4/75.2 306/10
84 20.3/76.1 313/12
90 20.9/77.0 304/11
96 21.5/77.8 309/9
102 22.1/78.3 316/8
108 22.6/78.7 327/6
114 23.2/79.1 329/7
120 23.8/79.4 330/7
126 24.5/79.5 348/6

Note that the GFDL takes "Fabian" to a 65kt hurricane as it hits eastern Cuba, weakens it to about 40-50 kts over Cuba, then strengthens it fast to 70kts just east of Miami.

[cycloneye]

But way too early to say for sure what track and intense it will be and as I said In my lead post let's see trends from other global models such as GFS,Nogaps,ETA,UKMET,canadien.

[Colin]

Yes, we will definitley need to watch for trends...if it did hit Miami as a cane they'd be in BIG, BIG trouble..... :o

[Derek Ortt]

Few things:

1. Many systems taking that track actually have intensified over eastern Cuba (Georges and Elena are two notorious examples). Its overdoing the Cuban weakening

2. It is overdoing the intensification. No surface circulation

3. The safest place to be is the 5 day forecast point

4. Some new ships guidance (not what is on Ohio State) indicates a much more intense cane; however, since there is no depression, not valid

[ColdFront77]

Great points, Derek.

The five day forecast point the models indicate now and in all the additional runs with this system can theoretically go back and forther at least a few times.

A similar point, not being exact, can easily bring the same type of weather to a particular area.