The past decade of costly hurricanes

[jinftl]

The decade that just ended rewrote the history books in terms of what are the costliest (in actual dollars, not adjusted for inflation) hurricanes in the u.s. When we entered the year 2000, the top 4 storms in terms of damage came from 4 different decades!!! The years 2000-2009 added 7 hurricanes to the current top 10 costliest storms list.

What will 2010-2019 bring in terms of additions to this list?

There are several 'worst case' scenarios that if they come to pass, would knock Katrina and Andrew out of the top slots. Plus, when you adjust for inflation, there are prior hurricanes that would surpass Katrina in damage $. It is estimated that if the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane hit today, it would result in $157 billion in damage, almost twice that of Katrina. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane hitting today would cause an estimated $99 billion in damage.
http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/d ... l2006a.pdf


Comparing the costliest storms 10 years ago with the current list is astounding.....the 2000-2009 period was the Decade of Costly Atlantic Hurricanes...with 7 storms enterting the top 10 costliest in just the last 10 years....that is an average of one almost every 1 or 2 years. Compare that to the # of storms even making the ranking in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s combined. The luck ran out in the new millenium.

As of 1/1/2000:
1. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $34,954,825,000
2. Hugo (SC) 1989 4 $9,739,820,675
3. Agnes (NE U.S.) 1972 1 $8,602,500,000
4. Betsy (FL/LA) 1965 3 $8,516,866,023
5. Camille (MS/AL) 1969 5 $6,992,441,549
6. Georges (PR/MS) 1998 5 $6,300,000,000
7. Diane (NE U.S.) 1955 1 $5,540,676,187
8. Frederic (AL/MS) 1979 3 $4,965,327,332
9. New England 1938 3 $4,748,580,000
10. Floyd (NC) 1999 4 $4,666,817,360
11. Fran (NC) 1996 3 $3,670,400,000
12. Opal (NW FL/AL) 1995 3 $3,520,596,085
13. Alicia (N TX) 1983 3 $3,421,660,182

As of 1/1/2010:
1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $34,954,825,000
3. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,600,000,000
4. Ike (TX/LA/MS) 2008 2 $18,000,000,000
5. Charley (FL) 2004 4 $14,000,000,000
6. Ivan (FL/AL) 2004 3 $13,000,000,000
7. Rita (LA/TX) 2005 3 $10,000,000,000
8. Hugo (SC) 1989 4 $9,739,820,675
9. Frances (FL) 2004 2 $8,860,000,000
10. Agnes (NE U.S.) 1972 1 $8,602,500,000
11. Betsy (FL/LA) 1965 3 $8,516,866,023
12. Jeanne (FL) 2004 3 $6,500,000,000
13. Camille (MS/AL) 1969 5 $6,992,441,549
14. Georges (PR/MS) 1998 5 $6,300,000,000
15. Allison (TX/LA) 2001 T.S. $5,000,000,000
16. Diane (NE U.S.) 1955 1 $5,540,676,187
17. Frederic (AL/MS) 1979 3 $4,965,327,332
18. New England 1938 3 $4,748,580,000
19. Floyd (NC) 1999 4 $4,666,817,360
20. Gustav (LA) 2008 2 $3,800,000,000
21. Fran (NC) 1996 3 $3,670,400,000
22. Opal (NW FL/AL) 1995 3 $3,520,596,085
23. Alicia (N TX) 1983 3 $3,421,660,182
24. Isabel (NC/VA/MD) 2003 2 $3,370,000,000

Cost estimates from National Hurricane Center Publication: The Deadliest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1492 - Present

[CrazyC83]

Most likely, with costs increasing rapidly, the list will once again become unrecognizable in 2020. Isabel may very well be out of the top 40 by then...heck, Katrina may not even be #1 by then - scary thought, but there are some scenarios that would top Katrina: even a Cat 2 in New York City might do it, or a Cat 4-5 in Miami, or a Cat 3-4 in the Tampa Bay area, or a Cat 4 just west of Galveston into Houston are the most obvious from a single landfall. There are also numerous double-landfall scenarios that could top Katrina as well.

$1 billion in damage today in the US is not exactly exceptional.

[CrazyC83]

The ultimate worst-case would be a Cat 5 into Miami, with the strongest winds in the core and Miami Beach and damaging winds across most of South Florida, then remaining a major hurricane plowing into either New Orleans or Galveston/Houston as at least a Cat 3.

BTW, those older storms listed appear to be 2000-adjusted.

[jinftl]

All told, such a track could very well end up being a $200 billion dollar storm. While there are proactive things we can all do to protect our homes and the safety of our families, there is no community in the U.S. that is equipped to deal with a disaster of that magnitude....potentially literally leaving several million people in Miami-Dade and Broward counties homeless, and then the same storm threatening to flood even a broader area of the MS and New Orelans metro areas or Galveston/Houston areas, depending on track, than Katrina or Ike did. We would be talking years or decades to recover on every level.

Compared to minimal damage and surge in Broward and Palm Beach counties during Andrew, historical accounts have estimated that as the 1926 Hurricane made landfall on Miami Beach, 140 mph winds and a 12 foot surge swamped the intracostal and the tributary rivers and canals in Fort Lauderdale (over 20 miles north) and the levee on Lake Okechobee near Moore Haven gave way and caused a 15 foot wall or water to drown the town (over 80 miles north of landfall). As of last count, there are 5.6 million people living in just Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties alone right now, the Miami to West Palm Beach corridor that extends less than 80 miles.

The ultimate worst-case would be a Cat 5 into Miami, with the strongest winds in the core and Miami Beach and damaging winds across most of South Florida, then remaining a major hurricane plowing into either New Orleans or Galveston/Houston as at least a Cat 3.

BTW, those older storms listed appear to be 2000-adjusted.

[Derek Ortt]

Most likely, with costs increasing rapidly, the list will once again become unrecognizable in 2020. Isabel may very well be out of the top 40 by then...heck, Katrina may not even be #1 by then - scary thought, but there are some scenarios that would top Katrina: even a Cat 2 in New York City might do it, or a Cat 4-5 in Miami, or a Cat 3-4 in the Tampa Bay area, or a Cat 4 just west of Galveston into Houston are the most obvious from a single landfall. There are also numerous double-landfall scenarios that could top Katrina as well.

$1 billion in damage today in the US is not exactly exceptional.

large cat 2 into NYC will still top your scenario

there is one doomsday scenario though that is possible. A cat 4 striking S Florida from the south, then riding up the EC, over the OBX and into northern New Jersey as a cat 2

[Sihara]

One thing nobody wants is a decade as active as (or more active than) 2000-2009 in terms of devastating landfalls. We're told that the reason that the years from 1995 forward have been so bad is because we are in the "active cycle" - so I have to wonder when this active cycle is supposed to end. The length of each cycle is anywhere from 15 years to 25 years, depending on who you hear it from, so which is correct?

[jinftl]

We will know when it ends, my feeling is that the cycle is not done....one el nino season aside of course/

One thing to keep in mind, you don't have to be in an active cycle to have a horrific storm occurrence. As bad as Hugo and Andrew were....both 'inactive cycle' storms...tracks 20 or so miles in either direction of their actual tracks could have resulted in even more widespread damage.

Also, it is all about tracks....1995 had 19 named storms and 11 hurricanes and inflicted about $13 billion in 2009 $ all told. The 2004 season had 15 named storms and 9 hurricanes and inflicted $58 billion in inflation-adjusted $.

As they say in real estate....location, location, location. 20 fish storms is nothing compared to one Andrew.

One thing nobody wants is a decade as active as (or more active than) 2000-2009 in terms of devastating landfalls. We're told that the reason that the years from 1995 forward have been so bad is because we are in the "active cycle" - so I have to wonder when this active cycle is supposed to end. The length of each cycle is anywhere from 15 years to 25 years, depending on who you hear it from, so which is correct?