The Future of Fabian

[Vortex]

First of all I'm confident it will eventually develop. How strong--Who knows..My main interest tonight is the weakness expected near and east of Florida in 3-4 days if moderately strong it likely then heads NW towards Cuba, Florida or even the Bahamas. Next scenario does turn NW and move very slowly towards Cuba then back west as the trough lifts out and heads for the GOM. This weakness is going to be key and it could go either way. The stronger the system the better chance it heads towards Fl if weaker than it heads for the Gulf where it could really intensify(MAJOR). Based on everything I've looked at I'd say 50/50. However, it will develop either way and will be a significant storm if it enters the Gulf. If florida bound due to land interaction I'd say 80kts tops most likely..Let the games begin but all from Texas around to NC should begin to monitor this system. Opinions always welcome.

[ColdFront77]

The potential for this system to develop into a large tropical cyclone striking anywhere from Cuba to Florida to Texas is possible.

The steering flow in the western Caribbean and at least the eastern Gulf of Mexico is very slow, and last I knew was expected to remain so for at least the next few days.

[rainstorm]

if you are talking about the wave in the windwards now, i think it has little chance for development.
west winds in the carib, ull forming near pr, and it looks rather dry.

[wxman57]

Your analysis is good, Vortex. But I might add that the 18Z GFS is coming around to the GFDL solution of that trof off the east coast resulting in a weakness north of eastern Cuba. This could, indeed, result in a northward turn. But I have two points:

1. Steering currents will likely be very light during this northward turn, so it may not move very far.

2. If that's the case, then you'd better watch out for a westward turn to follow - as both the GFDL and GFS build that ridge back along the east cosat beyond 5 days.

It could easily track across eastern Cuba, to the Bahamas, then west to the FL peninsula (and possibly into the Gulf). Though the trof to the north may allof for a northward jog for a day or two, I just don't think that trof will be strong enough to carry it out to sea.

I can tell this storm will be a real pain. Also, I see nothing to really inhibit intensification.

[ColdFront77]

The dry air to the north of the tropical wave has been eroding today.

Here is the latest image as well as the Water Vapor Loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[wxman57]

Yeah, I should have mentioned that there is only ONE factor that I can see which would possibly inhibit development (at least for the next 2-3 days). And that is the pocket of dry air to the north. But look east across the Atlantic - the moisture is back.

[rainstorm]

it looks like it has alot of dry air to deal with, plus west winds and an ull. i dont give it much chance. and just basing it on climatology, it is very unlikely to develop