South Floridians should IMO be very alert!

[JetMaxx]

This isn't meant to frighten anyone...but my advice to anyone living in the southern portion of Florida is to keep an "eagle eye" on 92L. It appears to be intensifying south of Puerto Rico, and latest forecast and model guidance suggest a track toward SW Haiti/ eastern Cuba in 48-72 hours -- then NW into the very warm waters between the Bahamas and southeast Florida in 4-5 days.

Interaction with the land masses will likely weaken this system (which I believe will be a strong T.S. or minimal hurricane before reaching Haiti) -- but the SW Peninsula of Haiti is narrow and not as mountainous as some may believe. There are indeed some significant mountains in SE Cuba...but EVEN IF this storm weakens to a depression over the island of Cuba, there will still be a possibility of rapid strengthening before it reaches SE Florida or the Keys.

In early September of 1935 the infamous Labor Day hurricane intensified from a tropical storm to cat-5 hurricane in less than 40 hours over the high-octane waters between the Florida Keys and Andros Island. In October 1950, hurricane "King" deepened from 992 mb to 955 mb in 18 hours between Cuba and Florida and struck Miami as a cat-3 hurricane. In August 1964, hurricane "Cleo" was barely a hurricane as it left eastern Cuba heading NNW....yet almost made it to a cat-3 hurricane before reaching Miami...from 75 to 110 mph in less than 24 hours.

This is late August....the SST in the Straits of Florida and Bahamas are extremely warm...running 85-88° F. Any tropical storm moving off central or eastern Cuba heading WNW to NNW toward Florida bears extremely close monitoring-- especially IF high pressure is building north of the storm...which appears likely to occur with this one -- turning the storm back to the WNW into the GOM (Gulf Coast residents should also keep a close eye on 92L).

As I said, this isn't intended to panic anyone. It's just a heads up to become very alert; and to begin thinking what you should do to protect yourself and your family in case the model data and my theory are correct.

[Steve H.]

Thanks for the heads up jet. Its looking like it may take the route you suggest, SW of Port-au-Prince. Would be really interesting if it cut between Cuba and the DR, then connected under the building ridge and west :o But let's not get ahead of ourselves. I think the match finally reached the gasoline in the tropics. Cheers!!

[GulfBreezer]

I agree Perry and it is that time of year when we all need to be extremely aware of the possibilities. We have the advantage here of being fully informed while others will not even hear of this system until it is very close.

Thanks again for your input!

[zoeyann]

Any thoughts on it being potential GOM storm? With everything brewing at least one is getting into the Gulf.

[Rainband]

GETS INTERESTING WITH THE GFS FORECASTING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION INFLUENCING THE WINDS IN OUR CWA STARTING LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN PATTERNS MAY BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
OVER US...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE ORGANIZATION AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES NEAR US. CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO DRY OUT FOR A DAY JUST BEFORE THIS SYSTEM COMES INTO OUR
AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO.

[bosag]

I am fascinated w/ the local mets here in WPB. I always watch the news at 530, 1200, and 600. Always channel 12. Anyway at noon today, Chris Farril said "thers a wave down here by P.R. that needs to be watched, but we dont really need to worry about it". I cant wait to see what he has to say tonite! So Im guessing that Jupiter is in the northeast quad of the storm, should it move this way..Oh Joy, time to dig out the shutters.

Also I was reading up on the 1928 hurricane, and it seems that one of the main streets here (center st) was waist high under water, I'm one block from there YIKES!!

bARB IN jUPITER

edited due to holding a sleeping baby while typing:)

[zoeyann]

Well bosag last night a Louisiana forecaster said that this had no chance of developing and the tropics are pretty quite no reason to worry. Funny thing is that kind of forecasting is what makes me worry.

[chadtm80]

Thats what a local met here said last night to.. Said Nothing to worry about at all :roll::roll::roll::roll::roll:

[Andrew92]

I don't trust those mets at all who just say "nothing to worry about, it's heading somewhere else." That's just irresponsible, kinda like the "what you don't know won't hurt you" mentality......it's there but won't come, so we won't get affected by it.

Makes me wanna SCREAM into the TV saying, "HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT??!!"

-Andrew92

[Johnny]

Most T.V. mets (not all) don't have a clue about forecasting tropical weather. They mostly go off the outlooks and discussions from the NHC which don't go too in detail. I'll stick with the people here at STORM2K

[chadtm80]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 9_5day.gif

[ColdFront77]

There is a meteorologist here in the Orlando viewing area that has been forecasting central Florida weather for 30 to 35 years.

I agree, you would think they (and some do) would want to say, "keep tuning in for the latest information, especially with tropical systems."

[Rainband]

Looks like Fabian could be in the GOM off the west coast of Florida..or the atlantic off the east coast of florida..or up our spine..I hate margin of error The other two waves are most likely gonna develop too huh/// Feast or famine!!! Here we go!!

[ameriwx2003]

Perry, I agree I will be keeping a close eye on t.d. # 9 and everyone living in Florida should be as well IMHO:):)

[deb_in_nc]

Can't have it coming here before we move. Maybe I waited a year too long in deciding to move back to NC.

Debbie

[wxman57]

Well, I got called out of a meeting this afternoon to put out forecast tracks on TD 9. I must say, it looked like it was developing quite fast but we haven't been able to confirm any SURFACE circulation with obs or Quickscat. I was surprised the NHC upgraded it based on one ship observation. Regardless, it's named now so we are issuing tracks.

You may have noticed that most of the models have been very much in line in taking the storm to eastern Cuba in about 72hrs. That seems quite reasonable. Beyond then, a trof moving off the east U.S. coast should result in a weakening of the ridge to its north and allow for a NW-N turn but at a much slower speed. There really won't be much to steer it once it gets north of Cuba (assuming it makes it that far NW-N before slowing). It may well meander around SE of Florida for a day or two as high pressure re-builds over the east U.S. coast (Monday/Tuesday). By then, it could very well begin drifting west into south Florida and into the Gulf. Hard to say where it could go if it gets into the Gulf, as lower/mid/upper winds would be pretty light. Not much to move it around.

As for intensity, I see nothing to keep it from becoming a Cat 1-2 hurricane SE of Florida if it gets far enough north of Cuba. Could be real interesting for south florida by Sunday/Monday.

[Rainband]

Thanks for the info!!!

[Colin]

I agree...people in S FL need to watch this thing very, VERY closely!!