Possible GOM/Caribbean development

[Ivanhater]

Well the odds are low on this, but there is a chance that the energy from 90e may transport to the Caribbean.

The good ol 12z Canadian had an interesting run for Florida

[Aquawind]

OH great the Canadians have gone back north and now wanna have the state vacuumed clean.. Let's hope it's just another one of the many CMC scarey but, bogus runs.

[thetruesms]

Oh, CMC, you're such a hoot sometimes

[KWT]

Can't totally rule it out but I'd be surprised if anything forms from whatever comes over from 90E. It'll probably lead to an increase in precip in the Caribbean and it may well be given invest status but we'll see, I'm not too convinced just yet.

[wxman57]

I saw a presentation at the AMS hurricane conference in Tucson by one of the modelers for the Canadian model. He acknowledged that the Canadian model produces 1000-2000 false alarms of TC development per year (maybe I exaggerate a tiny bit). One goal in this year's upgrade is to reduce the model's tendency to develop every cumulus cloud in the tropics into a Cat 5 hurricane. However, this model upgrade isn't scheduled until September at the earliest.

[gatorcane]

I saw a presentation at the AMS hurricane conference in Tucson by one of the modelers for the Canadian model. He acknowledged that the Canadian model produces 1000-2000 false alarms of TC development per year (maybe I exaggerate a tiny bit). One goal in this year's upgrade is to reduce the model's tendency to develop every cumulus cloud in the tropics into a Cat 5 hurricane. However, this model upgrade isn't scheduled until September at the earliest.

Wasn't the CMC upgraded last year sometime in the summer to address the bias towards developing everything?

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like 18z GFS tracks 90E over into the SE GOM and develops a closed low.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[wxman57]

I saw a presentation at the AMS hurricane conference in Tucson by one of the modelers for the Canadian model. He acknowledged that the Canadian model produces 1000-2000 false alarms of TC development per year (maybe I exaggerate a tiny bit). One goal in this year's upgrade is to reduce the model's tendency to develop every cumulus cloud in the tropics into a Cat 5 hurricane. However, this model upgrade isn't scheduled until September at the earliest.

Wasn't the CMC upgraded last year sometime in the summer to address the bias towards developing everything?

It may have had some upgrades, but not to fix this problem.

[thetruesms]

I saw a presentation at the AMS hurricane conference in Tucson by one of the modelers for the Canadian model. He acknowledged that the Canadian model produces 1000-2000 false alarms of TC development per year (maybe I exaggerate a tiny bit). One goal in this year's upgrade is to reduce the model's tendency to develop every cumulus cloud in the tropics into a Cat 5 hurricane. However, this model upgrade isn't scheduled until September at the earliest.

I'm confused, where were you exaggerating in this post?

September seems like a weird time to be implementing a tropical-aimed upgrade. I suppose they're just behind schedule a bit?

[gatorcane]

I saw a presentation at the AMS hurricane conference in Tucson by one of the modelers for the Canadian model. He acknowledged that the Canadian model produces 1000-2000 false alarms of TC development per year (maybe I exaggerate a tiny bit). One goal in this year's upgrade is to reduce the model's tendency to develop every cumulus cloud in the tropics into a Cat 5 hurricane. However, this model upgrade isn't scheduled until September at the earliest.

Wasn't the CMC upgraded last year sometime in the summer to address the bias towards developing everything?

It may have had some upgrades, but not to fix this problem.

Okay thanks for the clarification.

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Looks like convective feedback is what blows up the GFS low, big convective burst near NE Yucatan and within 12hrs a low has developed within the convection...

Whether or not it comes off, I'm not sure, the GFS has been hinting at it for a while but then again it doesn't always handle the Caribbean regions that well at this time of year.

I'd suspect perhaps a weak low may form but nothing will come from it, helped by the energy of Agatha.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Some models are pretty keen on at least developing some sort of closed low pressure. The 12z GFDL looks pretty much the same as the earlier run which takes the remains of Agatha up through the Yucatan.

ECM doesn't show anything developing from this system, I suspect whilst we will see convection increase in response in the Caribbean, not too sure we will see anything actually develop though.

[wxman57]

I saw a presentation at the AMS hurricane conference in Tucson by one of the modelers for the Canadian model. He acknowledged that the Canadian model produces 1000-2000 false alarms of TC development per year (maybe I exaggerate a tiny bit). One goal in this year's upgrade is to reduce the model's tendency to develop every cumulus cloud in the tropics into a Cat 5 hurricane. However, this model upgrade isn't scheduled until September at the earliest.

I'm confused, where were you exaggerating in this post?

September seems like a weird time to be implementing a tropical-aimed upgrade. I suppose they're just behind schedule a bit?

As the speaker said, the Canadian model wasn't designed to be a tropical model. However, they recognize that they do get impacted by such storms sometimes, so that is a concern. The model upgrade will not be finished and tested until September - at the earliest. There's no option for releasing the upgrade earlier. Chances are, September is an optimistic estimate. Besides, reducing false-alarm developments was only a part of the fixes being implemented.

[thetruesms]

I saw a presentation at the AMS hurricane conference in Tucson by one of the modelers for the Canadian model. He acknowledged that the Canadian model produces 1000-2000 false alarms of TC development per year (maybe I exaggerate a tiny bit). One goal in this year's upgrade is to reduce the model's tendency to develop every cumulus cloud in the tropics into a Cat 5 hurricane. However, this model upgrade isn't scheduled until September at the earliest.

I'm confused, where were you exaggerating in this post?

September seems like a weird time to be implementing a tropical-aimed upgrade. I suppose they're just behind schedule a bit?

As the speaker said, the Canadian model wasn't designed to be a tropical model. However, they recognize that they do get impacted by such storms sometimes, so that is a concern. The model upgrade will not be finished and tested until September - at the earliest. There's no option for releasing the upgrade earlier. Chances are, September is an optimistic estimate. Besides, reducing false-alarm developments was only a part of the fixes being implemented.

Ah, so it's just a part of a large package, rather than one focused on that issue? Okay, that makes more sense on the timing then. A little bit of a bummer, though - it seems like this time of year would be a good time to test that fix. There'll be plenty of opportunities to see how it works when they do get it ready, though.

[JonathanBelles]

The chances of this crossover are quite low right now...on the order of maybe 20% optimistically. A moderate tropical storm going over a mountain range known for killing tropical systems and increasing shear are both reasons I suspect this will not make it over the Yucatan. If anything comes from Agatha on the Atlantic side it will be completely new with the moisture from Agatha. The NHC is forecasting that westerly kink in the forecast, signifying to me that they may not even be looking at the possibility of a crossover. SST's near the Yucatan are high enough to support cyclogenesis, but shear is not.

I want to make a special point for this. SST's are only the fuel for hurricanes and other tropical cyclones. If you do not have a car to put fuel into, then you just have fuel. Your car must also have some sort of starter to use the fuel. In other words, you have to have a tropical wave or disturbance with some sort of a trigger to get the wave to use the higher SST's. If you did not need a trigger and a wave present for cyclogenesis, then you would see hundreds of cyclones each year.

[KWT]

Actually the models aren't that high with shear, the GFS only has about 10-15kts worth of shear in the Caribbean, which won't stop things from developing.

That being said I don't think anything will develop from the remains and as you rightly said there is no certainty they even make it to the Caribbean, I've not been too convinced about it making it to the Caribbean and instead may end up tracking the whole way up the Yucatan.

edit---also remember its not Agatha itself thats spawning the GFS/CMC low but a split piece of energy , Agatha itself will probably stay overland.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like some of the moisture may get into the Caribbean (if it
even goes there) from agatha but any
circulation will have been dissipated by land interaction so I just think
it may just add moisture but not too much more.

[KWT]

Well from the sounds of things from the NHC the mid levels split from the lower levels and this is from the looks of things what the GFS and the CMC is latching onto. My main concern with this is convective feedback issues are the reason why the GFS is developing a low from this almost instantly.

I still don't rate the chances too highly, but the fact that a few models are showing this, at the time of year we are in and the fact that conditions aloft aren't too bad really, does make me a little curious!