Poleward and equatorial outflow established over #9.

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:10 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Even though convection is on the wane around the suspected LLC on #9, outflow channels are established and clearly evident on WV, and expanding out in all directions.

#2 Postby **ALhurricane** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:17 pm

Convection should return later tonight around the LLC. I agree the outflow is becoming well established. I do see some westerly shear inhibiting the west side of the system.

I must admit I was a little surprised to see the NHC pull the trigger. With recon cancelled and only one ship report of a west wind, I personally didn't think there was enough evidence for an upgrade.

I am in no way questioning the NHC abilities. I do question why recon was cancelled and a few hours later we have a classification.

chadtm80 · #3 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:28 pm

Yes indeed.. Look here http://meteo.ec.gc.ca/data/satellite/go ... 70_100.jpg

Steve H. · #4 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:29 pm

Yes, there is outflow, but the convection is really dropping off. There is evidence of turning though, and I agree it should refire again soon (needs to) around the circulation center. 8-)

#5 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:32 pm

I think they pulled the trigger because they didn't want another case of having a recon go out and find a tropical storm. There have been many systems skip the TD phase the last couple of years and I think they believe it will go (as do I) so why not get a TD first.

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:34 pm

Probably so, AF Met. I don't think it has a well-enough established LLC yet. And convection began decreasing after 2pm this afternoon.

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:43 pm

The whole atlantic seems to be getting active..well the lull seems to be over :o Does this have anything to do with the Neg MJO??? :?:

Lindaloo · #8 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:47 pm

SHIPS reported a west wind that they were looking for right? Isn't that what they use to upgrade.. finding that west wind?

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:49 pm

Lindaloo wrote:SHIPS reported a west wind that they were looking for right? Isn't that what they use to upgrade.. finding that west wind?

<b>A</b> ship, not SHIPS. Yes, ship data an be used to confirm a LLC, but I'd be hesitant to rely on a single ship report with no other method of confirmation (Quickscat / land reports). Ship reports are notoriously unreliable.

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:54 pm

If I'm not mistaken, the ship reporting a west wind was in a thunderstorm. I missed the datasets on that earlier today since I was not here. Thunderstorms produce local wind effects and may have been the cause.

Even if it was a true west wind, the problem is it was from one ship report. So far, that's the only report I've heard about and the gun may have been jumped a little bit. AF Met brought up an interesting point, and so did ALHurricane. IMO, NHC jumped a gun a little bit, but probably for the right reasons and probably are making the right call in the long run.

SF

Lindaloo · #11 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 6:55 pm

Okay kewl. A SHIP not SHIPS. lol.

jabber · #12 Postby **jabber** » Thu Aug 21, 2003 8:07 pm

If its not at least a TD, then it is indeed one really good looking wave.

Poleward and equatorial outflow established over #9.

Poleward and equatorial outflow established over #9.

Probably

Ship

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