DT/Wxrisk.com Summer 2010/Hurricane Forecast

[Big O]

DT with wxrisk.com has issued his summer 2010/hurricane forecast. He is customarily conservative on his forecasts so this forecast is quite troubling, especially his mention of storms being steered into the GOM. See link: http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.c ... ER2010.htm

[Windsong]

DT is not a trumpet blower. I've been reading his forecasts for years. He has won my respect and believe me, he's got my attention.

PS - I am not affiliated with DT, I am just
Windsong

[HurricaneJoe22]

"It is very possible that the 2010 hurricane season could equal that of 2005 or perhaps even exceed it."

[Plant grower]

"It is very possible that the 2010 hurricane season could equal that of 2005 or perhaps even exceed it."

Well why not everything is working in favor of this.

[windycity]

Wow, that blows. lol

[Blown Away]

HURRICANE SEASON 2010.

In a word it is looking bad... REALLY bad. Those of you who get the energy and Hurricane forecasts from me know that since 2005 I have NOT been caught up in the media hype about forecasting another monster hurricane season like we s aw in 2004 and 2005. .

Indeed back in 2006 numerous private forecasters became caught up in a game of "I can top that forecast". They went extreme with the early season Hurricane forecast... whereas Wxrisk.com actually forecasted the lowest Tropical Cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin of any of the well-known private forecast services. I remained bearish on hurricane activity throughout the 2007 and 2008 hurricane seasons as well even though in many of the private forecast services continue to over forecast the amount of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.

That Being said... over the past 30-45 days I have become awed by the extremely warm SSTA which have developed throughout the spring across the entire MDR (main development region) but especially over the central and eastern portions of the tropical Atlantic. These warm SSTA are far warmer than anything on new record easily exceeding the warm waters we saw in 2005.

In addition there is a strong correlation between Above Normal hurricane activity and moderate La Niña events.. and between strongly negative QBO phases and Above Normal hurricane activity.

As long as the WIND shear is not too strong and the Saharan dust is not overpowering... It is very possible that the 2010 hurricane season could equal that of 2005 or perhaps even exceed it. It is way too early in the season to speculate about the amount of Sahara dust that will get into the far eastern tropical Atlantic or the shear across the Caribbean Basin and tropical Atlantic regions . If the Pattern does develop as I am forecasting the Ridge over the SE states will prevent Hurricanes from turning out to sea once they reach 65 west Longitude and steer systems into the Gulf of Mexico.

Wow, I think we are in for a wild ride this season.

[wx247]

That is quite the forecast. I sincerely hope it doesn't bear out.

[Stormcenter]

It will be interesting to see how all of these "high number" forecast pan out at the end of this season. I agree it will be more active then last season but not anything near or over 20 storms. IMO

[KWT]

Well I wouldn't be so sure SC, I'm not going to call for quite as high as say 20+ but conditions IMO probably are overall more condusive then even 2005 overall, though that doesn't mean it'll end up panning out the same way, much depends on the 'cooking' so to speak, but the ingredients are top notch!

[cycloneye]

KWT,the last forecast to come out will be from where you are as TSR releaases their June forecast on Friday.

[vbhoutex]

It will be interesting to see how all of these "high number" forecast pan out at the end of this season. I agree it will be more active then last season but not anything near or over 20 storms. IMO

Why not? I'm curious as to your reasoning. I didn't predict 20 storms either, but with much of what I have been reading, I'm starting to wonder if most peoples numbers are low(those below 18). There is almost no one in the tropical community that isn't predicting an almost hyperactive season. I sure do hope they are ALL WRONG!!!
I've known DT for many years and he most definitely is not one to hype anything. That gives me great pause when I read his forecast.

[Ivanhater]

I'm curious, what were the forecasts for the 2005 season in May and early June? I ask this, because I know they did not call for the crazy numbers we saw in 2005, but I do not recall seeing this high of a forecast as we are seeing now for this season for any other season, including 2005. And that is what is scary

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Guess I will come out of hiding for my first post of the 2010 season. Seems I better get warmed up as it looks to be a busy one. BTW Good question Ivanhater. Don't hold me to it but I think the forecast was for around 16 named storms. Hopefully someone can do a little research and respond, becasue i would like to know as well.

[Stormhunter27]

From Wiki:

On December 3, 2004, Dr. Gray's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2005 season, predicting a slightly above-average season. Additionally, the team predicted a greatly increased chance of a major hurricane striking the East Coast of the United States and the Florida peninsula. Though the forecast predicted above-average activity, the level predicted was significantly less than the 2004 season.[1] On April 1, 2005, after confirming that El Niño conditions would not develop, Dr. Gray and his team revised the December forecast upward, expecting thirteen tropical storms instead of eleven and seven hurricanes instead of six. In addition, the chance of a storm impacting the United States was raised slightly.[3]

On May 16, 2005, 16 days before the season began, NOAA issued its outlook for the 2005 season, forecasting a 70% chance of above-normal activity. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value for the season was predicted to be 120–190% of the median ACE of 87.5 × 104 kt2.[4] Shortly thereafter, on May 31, the day before the season officially began, Dr. Gray's team revised its April forecast upwards to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.[

[angelwing]

I found the 2005 one:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... icane.html

*snip*
The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The likely range of ACE index is 120%-190% of the median. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.

*snip*

[KWT]

Its quite amazing to see just how low they ended up being, even the mid season update busted way too low in the end!

2005 really was more like a WPAC type season wasn't it!

[Ivanhater]

Thanks for the info guys. That is indeed scary looking at the predictions for 2005 and seeing the unheard of forecast we are seeing now. Many sleepless night this summer I'm afraid.

[Duddy]

Gonna be a wild ride that's for sure. Though, with these Heat Indices above 100F, I sure could go for a nice TS.

[gatorcane]

It will be interesting to see how all of these "high number" forecast pan out at the end of this season. I agree it will be more active then last season but not anything near or over 20 storms. IMO

Why not? I'm curious as to your reasoning. I didn't predict 20 storms either, but with much of what I have been reading, I'm starting to wonder if most peoples numbers are low(those below 18). There is almost no one in the tropical community that isn't predicting an almost hyperactive season. I sure do hope they are ALL WRONG!!!
I've known DT for many years and he most definitely is not one to hype anything. That gives me great pause when I read his forecast.

I agree with SouthernGale, why couldn't we see 20+ systems though most agencies won't predict that many simply because it is far above what the typical average season brings (and I wouldn't either probably). The conditions are really lining up for an active and possibly hyperactive season. Factors include above normal SSTs and lack of el Nino, among others. The wild card is if La Nina develops by the peak of the season in Aug-Oct. and just how strong La Nina will be. Some possible negatives could also include lingering SAL and high trades but most models (ECMWF) weaken the trades by later in the summer and leave an area of below normal pressure for much of the Caribbean and MDR, which would favor development.

[perk]

DT with wxrisk.com has issued his summer 2010/hurricane forecast. He is customarily conservative on his forecasts so this forecast is quite troubling, especially his mention of storms being steered into the GOM. See link: http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.c ... ER2010.htm

That is scary, especially coming from DT.