Area behind 93L

[BigA]

There is an interesting area behind 93L that caught my attention when I was looking at the Atlantic vorticity maps. I don't know if it has any shot, but it sure has a strong vorticity signature, and if it stays north of south America it should encounter the same favorable conditions as 93L (I think). Of course, they probably both can't develop.



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[KWT]

Its not out of the question that a few of the models are developing that region, its pretty confusing picture out there...

[Fego]

If I'm not wrong, this wave has a lot of dust with it. May be its role is to clean the Atlantic.

[Aquawind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... litE&time=

Weak Sal behind it but, this little vort blob looks impressive.

[Weatherfreak000]

A definite candidate for 94L.....95L and/or 96L may be african waves not too far off if your following the GFS.


Something to consider

[boca]

Whats alittle unnerving is that normally the waves that come of Africa go poof this time of year.The waves seem to be holding their own.

[AtlanticWind]

convection starting to fire

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

[Aquawind]

Initially the wave in front of the SAL was my interest and had some good vorticity.. NOW looking at the wave behind it looks MASSIVE now..

[Tampa_God]

I was looking at that area too while looking at the radar. It seems like some convection is trying to creep in to the system. It certainly is becoming more active further along we get in to the hurricane season.

[Brent]

Just noticed this when looking at 93L. Looks "interesting" to me already.

[Weatherfreak000]

We have some low pressure trying to develop right behind 93L.....kind of a stretch but you never know what could happen...maybe we could see 94L tomorrow. I don't know for certain if their proximity to each other is a problem however. The graveyard should affect it tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230841
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST WED JUN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 63W THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEXT 24 HOURS
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS COMING OFF
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO OUR WEST WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT NONE OVER LAND. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...IN COMBINATION WITH ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING...PROMISE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 63W LONGITUDE...IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...LATEST LAYER MEAN WIND ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS SHOWS SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 700-850MB LAYER...WHICH WILL IMPLIES SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MOST PROBABLY WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO THAT WE SAW
WITH LAST TROPICAL WAVE...WITH MOST CONCENTRATE AREA OF HEAVY
SHOWERS STAYING OVER THE WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND
SOME BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A MOIST
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE ENOUGH...TO
TRIGGER AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL..AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BRIEF "DRIER PERIOD" IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...WHEN SUBSIDENCE
AIR...AND POSSIBLE SOME SAHARAN DUST...AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE DUST WILL
BE MINIMAL...AS INDICATED BY LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL GLOBAL
MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS DRIER PERIOD WILL NOT LAST FOR TOO LONG AS THE
ACTIVE TROPICAL TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR
45W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS...THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OF THIS
WAVE...AS ITS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...IF THIS
FORECAST VERIFY...A WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AND GENERALLY ESE WINDS NEAR 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 23/16Z...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR
10KFT ALL PR TAF SITES. AFTERWARDS...EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CONDS ACROSS
ALL PR TAF SITES AND THE VI AS A TROPICAL WAVE NEARS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. LLVL WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS AFT
23/16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 78 / 70 40 50 20
STT 88 79 88 80 / 50 40 40 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ732...741.
VI...SCA AMZ732.

&&

$$

04/71

[Aquawind]

The Dust is weakening as expected and that wave looks strong.. I know Florida is getting a pretty dry flow off the ATL this week.. Pops near 20% until the weekend down here. Maybe the Bahama system mentioned by some..

[Aquawind]

43W 8N.. Nice little obvious LL spin..well within a massive envelop thus little SAL influence..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

[alan1961]

Yes obvious spin down there before it gets zonked by
the mess thats coming out of the caribbean.

[Aquawind]

Yes obvious spin down there before it gets zonked by
the mess thats coming out of the caribbean.

I don't understand.. It's wayy behind the carib and anything coming outta there is heading in the same direction.

[Weatherfreak000]

A really interesting feature you found Aquawind. I think that's the first LLC i've seen yet. It definitely makes me feel we are in hurricane season now.

[KWT]

Broad turning with the wave feature and possible a small MLC/LLC feature is down there at a low latitude but looks to me like SAL is digging towards it and there is fierce shear that is about to get shunted SE as that upper trough continues to move eastwards.

[alan1961]

Yes obvious spin down there before it gets zonked by
the mess thats coming out of the caribbean.

I don't understand.. It's wayy behind the carib and anything coming outta there is heading in the same direction.

What i mean is if the mess in the caribbean is still a mess
in a few days time and has not organised and moved west
that LL spin wont have much chance running into it.

[Gustywind]

Very strong convection pretty concentrated, let's see if it can sustain that amount before the "poof test"