Models show low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico

[floridasun78]

could gfdl be right or that error it show two system one alex or maybe 95l

[NOLA2010]

could gfdl be right or that error it show two system one alex or maybe 95l

Which wave is it showing? The one thats coming off of Africa or another one?

[Gustywind]

could gfdl be right or that error it show two system one alex or maybe 95l

Any links my friend? We appreciate...

[floridasun78]

it was early run of gfdl

[floridasun78]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation look ne gulf i head someone talk about it in alex discussion area later run was not on their now back

[Dean4Storms]

Yes the GFS, CMC and GFDL all develop a low in the NE Gulf

Here the links to the various solutions.

The GFDL deepens it to 1000mb and moves it SW

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 06/10.html

GFS....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/104.html

CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 0/101.html


To be fair here the ECMWF, NGP and UKMET all show nothing.

[floridasun78]

here gfs show area ne gulf this part remain of alex that left in gulf https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 6&set=Core

[AJC3]

Changed topic title slightly, as the title reference to 95L may confuse peeps into thinking that the GFDL is actually being run on a system called 95L.

[KWT]

Seems to be developing it from the large amount of convection that is left over from Alex's large circulation as the system drives inland. Its a situation that'd be uncommon but I suppose possible...

[ronjon]

Seems to be developing it from the large amount of convection that is left over from Alex's large circulation as the system drives inland. Its a situation that'd be uncommon but I suppose possible...

KWT, looking at the 850 mb vorticity grid from GFS, it actually forms from some convection moving up the east side of Alex from the SE GOM. Plus there is a backdoor front pushing down and stalling in this vicinity to give it added spark. The CMC, GFS, and GFDL develop low pressure somewhere in the NE GOM in 3 days, move it west to NO, then back east again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[CrazyC83]

So if that new system develops, it is Alex or a new name?

[HURAKAN]

So if that new system develops, it is Alex or a new name?

If it's a new low pressure center, it has to be Bonnie.

[N2Storms]

Apparently the Tallahassee NWS is not buying this solution at the current time preferring to go with the ECMF which shows nothing of the sort. The GFS has been consist the last two days in showing a Closed Low forming just south of Mobile or the extreme western FL Panhandle. I guess we'll see but it sounds rather "iffy"....

[ronjon]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE
SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH OUR LOCAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GFS SOLUTION IS PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF MOBILE THURSDAY AND SHOWS IT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION BUT THE QPF
AMOUNTS THAT THE MODEL IS GENERATING IS UNACCEPTABLE (20+" OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE). THE SURFACE LOW WOULD ALSO INHIBIT THE
COLD FRONT FROM PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. THE 12Z EURO DOES
NOT DEVELOP SUCH FEATURE AND IT`S SOLUTION SHOWS THE FRONT
PENETRATING INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH MOST OF THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEING SHUNT TO OUR SOUTH. EITHER SOLUTION OFFERS
A WET SCENARIO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR WINDS AND USE HPC`S QPF. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[fwbbreeze]

Snipet from NWS mobile

THROUGH THE PERIOD...LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. SHORT RANGE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT
BY FRIDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. BOTH
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FL/AL COAST
FRIDAY BUT THE GFS STRANGELY STRENGTHENS THE LOW NEAR MOBILE BAY
WHILE THE NAM /AND 12Z ECMWF/ DRIFT THE WAVE OFFSHORE TO THE WEST.
EVEN THE MED RANGE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

[jlauderdal]

Seems to be developing it from the large amount of convection that is left over from Alex's large circulation as the system drives inland. Its a situation that'd be uncommon but I suppose possible...

KWT, looking at the 850 mb vorticity grid from GFS, it actually forms from some convection moving up the east side of Alex from the SE GOM. Plus there is a backdoor front pushing down and stalling in this vicinity to give it added spark. The CMC, GFS, and GFDL develop low pressure somewhere in the NE GOM in 3 days, move it west to NO, then back east again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

my recommendation is to follow the euro and only the euro until it busts, the gyro has been great the last few weeks

[KWT]

I think convective feedback issues is probably why some of the models develop that region, then again they have been quite consistant on developing something there.

[thetruesms]

Seems to be developing it from the large amount of convection that is left over from Alex's large circulation as the system drives inland. Its a situation that'd be uncommon but I suppose possible...

KWT, looking at the 850 mb vorticity grid from GFS, it actually forms from some convection moving up the east side of Alex from the SE GOM. Plus there is a backdoor front pushing down and stalling in this vicinity to give it added spark. The CMC, GFS, and GFDL develop low pressure somewhere in the NE GOM in 3 days, move it west to NO, then back east again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

my recommendation is to follow the euro and only the euro until it busts, the gyro has been great the last few weeks

Well, blindly tying yourself to a model without ever questioning it is a surefire way to get a bust

[HeeBGBz]

It's felt a bit tropical the last two days with heavy rains and steady drizzles on the MGC.

[nashrobertsx]

Breck on FOX 8 in NOLA showed VIPER (Tues. night at 9:30pm) forming a LOW on the front Thurs and Fri and it stays offshore south of Houma, La. for a couple of days (didnt say it would develop but I guess it could) but VIPER did show copious amounts of rain all over southern MS and La. Could be an interesting weekend. What is one to do when the weather is aweful and the oil has closed most of the beaches. What a life!!!