Tropical wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Weatherfreak000]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW
LEVEL WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH MODEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 11N
BETWEEN 26W AND 34W.

Wind shear pattern is moderately conducive as well. Looking nice tonight. It appears the wave we were viewing that apparently dissipated may be flaring up again.

[BigA]

I think the CMC and NOGAPS kinda sorta develop this one, but I need more and better models before I latch on. Still, in July things can start forming east of the islands.

[Weatherfreak000]

They discussed that in the TWD.

Shear appears marginally favorable at least.

[HURAKAN]

The search for Bonnie begins!!

[Weatherfreak000]

Vorticity is easy to spot in this loop as it made it's way past the SAL Zone, the wave (My prediction for Future-94L) has flared up considerably tonight. The wave behind it still in Africa is large, and should do well to hold back the SAL from halting



SAL is being disrupted by large amounts of moisture all around this wave, as well as infront and inback of the system. You just can't script a better scenario for cyclogenesis. Lower and Upper Level Divergence are both favorable.


Edit: When a system is looking this good you tend to want to look into it's environment ahead of it. Wind shear drops off significantly when it makes it to 40W. We may see an invest from this area soon.

[BigA]

Vorticity is easy to spot in this loop as it made it's way past the SAL Zone, the wave (My prediction for Future-94L) has flared up considerably tonight. The wave behind it still in Africa is large, and should do well to hold back the SAL from halting



SAL is being disrupted by large amounts of moisture all around this wave, as well as infront and inback of the system. You just can't script a better scenario for cyclogenesis. Lower and Upper Level Divergence are both favorable.


Edit: When a system is looking this good you tend to want to look into it's environment ahead of it. Wind shear drops off significantly when it makes it to 40W. We may see an invest from this area soon.

Solid and well-evidenced analysis, especially the part about how the wave behind this one would protect it (From what I remember, with SAL, the wave behind protects the wave ahead). I think it would be designated 95L if it became an invest; if I recall, we had a short-lived 94L.

[HURAKAN]

A high pressure system seems to be over or near this system

[Hugo1989]

Where is bonnie?

[Hugo1989]

Whom is the next invest?

[HURAKAN]

Where is bonnie?

It hasn't formed yet but that's the next name

[HURAKAN]

Whom is the next invest?

95L

[Hugo1989]

Where is bonnie?

It hasn't formed yet but that's the next name

jajaja yes i know!
I said by the wave that goes through the 35w and other wave out of africa

[cycloneye]

Well,CMC develops this wave,but is only one model as a consensus is needed.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Weatherfreak000]

The hunt for 95L is indeed on. Allow me to show yall model runs!


The CMC develops this and send it north of the Lesser Antilles islands.....it seems fish may be what becomes of this wave.


HOWEVER, the GFDL is spotting a T.S. like low developing in 4 1/2 says on the East side of the Florida Peninsula.




GFS now onboard with Bob Breck's VIPIR Model as well as past runs of HWRF and GFDL (Considerable Model Agreement) for a Low developing in the GOM in the 2-3 day time frame.



The GFS and HWRF (HWRF being weaker) is ALSO showing the Florida East Coast style development along with GFDL in the 4 1/2 day time frame.


NOGAPS sees a Caribbean development at the end of its run. The race is on everyone we have our players/

[Weatherfreak000]

Here's your latest vorticity map.




The wave emerging off 60 W is looking VERY impressive, unfortunately shear is brutal in that area. That wave may have to sacrifice it's energy to the wave I am seeing at 40W.

[Weatherfreak000]

EURO develops in GOM

[Fego]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Got some purple? color.

[Frank2]

That chart reminds me of the album Less than Zero...

LOL

[cycloneye]

EURO develops in GOM

12z EURO Loop

[Flyinman]

Wow, hope the Euro is not correct this time. I do not care to see the first 2 storms of of the season in the Gulf. The last time we had several storms in the Gulf, our finale was Ike!