Tropical Depression #9: Is this a GOMer or a GONER?
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Tropical Depression #9: Is this a GOMer or a GONER?
Check out this 5-Day track extrapolation, then let's debate this.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1508W5.gif
Is this tropical system gonna be a GOMer, or will it break up over the Dominican Republic/Haiti, or will it go up the East Coast and slam into the Mid Atlantic?
-Jeb
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Re: Tropical Depression #9: Is this a GOMer or a GONER?
Jeb wrote:
Check out this 5-Day track extrapolation, then let's debate this.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1508W5.gif
Is this tropical system gonna be a GOMer, or will it break up over the Dominican Republic/Haiti, or will it go up the East Coast and slam into the Mid Atlantic?
-Jeb
You know, I have no idea! Lol
I didn't even vote. I think it might hit FL but it needs to be watched.
-Jeb
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- Military Met
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http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm
My vote is a combo of GOM and Florida, because I'm thinking NW Florida, not the Peninsula.
My vote is a combo of GOM and Florida, because I'm thinking NW Florida, not the Peninsula.
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GOMer
Personally I think it will get torn apart over land areas because it really does not look all that powerful, and then what is left will drift into the GOM bringing rain to the coastal areas.
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- vbhoutex
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The CROW KING votes GOMER! Most of the models are starting a slow trend back to the WNW. I expect the then CAT1, maybe 2 Hurricane Fabian to brush the S tip of Fl. or actually "miss" the mainland peninsula and go through the N. Keys and on into the GOM. After that the track depends on any steering currents setting up, which there is a real question about at this point. Please notice the crow award below just in case! 

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I expect TD 9 to cross Haiti, remaining intact...and deepen to a major hurricane (115 mph) before impacting extreme southern Florida...or more likely IMO, cross the Florida Keys -- then continue WNW into the GOM, and become a very dangerous hurricane (130+ mph) that will be a serious threat to some portion of the Gulf Coast....IMO most likely east of New Orleans.
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First it has to Jet over those DR/Haitian Mountains
IF it gets through those MOUNTAINS.........and it's ONLY a TD.
-Jeb
-Jeb
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But it'll be nice to have something to discuss in the GOM...
I'd like to see a Tropical Storm, maybe a quick weak Cat 1 hit some largely unpopulated stretch of the GOM Coast, killing NO ONE and only causing minimal damage with fast movement over land so as to NOT have an Allison event. Fast, short and sweet. A little wind and splash 'n dash showers. Something exciting but mostly harmless.
-Jeb

-Jeb
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- southerngale
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Sounds good
southerngale wrote:I think it will weaken some over the Dominican Republic (after a little strengthening) and hit Florida on its way into the GOM.
How does that sound?
That sounds great, but after it hits the GOM, then what? I don't want someone in the GOM to get clobbered by a Cat 3 right where they live.
-Jeb
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