Is the 2010 season still on track towards 18+ or not?

[cycloneye]

I know some will ask me, Luis, why are you doing this poll this early in July? My answer is the expectations for a very busy season by the vast majority of the experts that predict seasonal outlooks provoked me to make this simple question poll.In any normal season,this question would be asked by late August or early September.IMO,it will be very important how many systems form in August and September to then see if the average of the expert forecasts of 18+ comes thru. Apart from the question in the poll,the members can make comments about how they see the season so far in terms of reaching the hyperactivity of the 18+ that they forecast. The poll will be open until July 12 at 2:17 PM EDT.

What I can say is that 2010 will not be another 2005 in terms of those ridiculous numbers (28) that it had.Also,in terms of the numbers and what the experts have as average 18, I personally dont go too far up (17) for the entire season.

[RL3AO]

2005 wasn't record shattering in terms of August and September, what made it historic was June/July and October - December.

Any season can get to 18 if it has an active August and September. I went with don't know.

[HURAKAN]

Absolutely, 1969 had the first storm on July 25.



1969:
June: 0
July: 1
August: 5
September: 6
October: 5
November: 1

2010 is already ahead.

[lonelymike]

It looks like 2005 out there but it's acting like 2009 in here.

On a serious note I remember wxman57 posting a stat saying that tropical genesis (the spark that starts a storm) was down the last few years. Wonder if that has something to do with it

[Macrocane]

It looks like 2005 out there but it's acting like 2009 in here.

On a serious note I remember wxman57 posting a stat saying that tropical genesis (the spark that starts a storm) was down the last few years. Wonder if that has something to do with it

Acting like 2009? 2009 had its first named storm until mid-August, and I think we didn't have so much invests in June-July.

[KWT]

I personally went with the 16-18 range and I've seen little to go away from that. We are now falling behind 2005 and I doubt we catch that season up, but 18 is certainly more than do able as 1969 proved...

I'd be surprised if we go above 18NS but that being said we've had so many invests already this year, once things become favourable enough out there, things will really set off in August. Its always been my feeling that its from the 15th of August things really explode, whilst June/July come in above average but not exceptionally so.

[lonelymike]

I'd be surprised if we go above 18NS but that being said we've had so many invests already this year, once things become favourable enough out there, things will really set off in August. Its always been my feeling that its from the 15th of August things really explode, whilst June/July come in above average but not exceptionally so.[/quote]


I said that a few weeks ago and got my head bit off. Nice to see I'm not the only one that thinks that.

[KWT]

Well that tends to be how most La Nina's go, esp ones that go below -0.8C in the end though not sure how strong this one will go now...

Still usually anything of decent strength before the start of August is a bit of a bonus, the fact Alex got so strong should really be ringing alarm bells in peoples minds, not many June systems get to category-2.

[TYNI]

I voted don't know. I am not sure that we can truly predict steering influences, shear, and where invests actually cross land or brush land, removing enough built up energy to actually achieve TS strength and be named (I am still learning the process of cyclone evolution, thanks this great forum).

Pardon my ignorance if this has already been asked, here or in another forum, but what is the current standing record for the number of invests during a season? We truly may have a large number this year.

[Stephanie]

With all of the invests that we've had so far this year and so early, I think that Ma Nature is preparing us for a busy 18+ season.

[vbhoutex]

I went with don't know for one reason. We've had 6 invests, with at least 3 of them in good conditions and only one TC. Is there going to be something that puts a squash on a hyperactive season? I don't think so, but I'm not too sure we will get past 18 storms.

[KWT]

Possibly if that TUTT stays where its been in June (it really destroyed 92L when it was close to development) then we could see something like a stronger version of 2007 perhaps, other then that I'm not sure there is too much to prevent a hyper season.

[HurrMark]

I think it's possible that we could get 18, but I don't think we will get into the Greek alphabet this year. Everything has to be pretty much perfect for that to happen...in other words, close-call systems like Invest 92 and Invest 95 would have had to have classified.

Keep in mind that in 2005, we had five July systems. Assuming Invest 96 does not develop, it appears that we will probably go through the first third of the month without a named system. And if we don't really start to get anything within the next 10 days, any comparisons should go out the window.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

When are the MJO pulses supposed to be in the western atlantic and caribbean? That is the key to the increased activity periods. If we get 1 or 2 more pulses in July, we'll see a few more named storms. The pulses that occur in Aug, Sep & Oct will be the real meaty times of the season though.

[Cryomaniac]

I think if we get a named storm or two in the next 2 weeks (presumably from 96L and another one) then I think we could easily see an 18 named storm season. If we get as many as 4 storms in July then 20 is possible. No way we'll get near 2005's numbers though.

[cycloneye]

When are the MJO pulses supposed to be in the western atlantic and caribbean? That is the key to the increased activity periods. If we get 1 or 2 more pulses in July, we'll see a few more named storms. The pulses that occur in Aug, Sep & Oct will be the real meaty times of the season though.

If this graphic is right,a new wet pulse is going to arrive to the Atlantic Basin by mid-July and last thru the end of the month,but this is subject to constant changes.

[KWT]

I suspect the MJO will be weakly favourable for the entire season, but it'll be when the strongest favourable pluses come through that we will see a real upward tick in storms.

[Scorpion]

Yes, because we will continue to get activity until December.

[KWT]

That'd certainly be one hell of a long season if it carries on till December, La Nina would argue that its more then possible it goes that long, but lets hope not!

[cycloneye]

This is my take month by month for the season to reach 18 named storms:

July=1
August=5
September=6
October=3
November=2

With La Nina in place,I see a late season of systems,that is why October and November will be more active than normal.