2PM Update - Recon having difficulty finding an LLC

#1 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:50 pm

2 PM AST FRI AUG 22 2003

...RECONNNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA...HAVING DIFFICULTY FINDING A
CLOSED CIRCULATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...210 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY IN THE AREA WILL DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER HAITI WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED...
THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...16.5 N... 69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:50 pm

Glad to know it just wasn't my and wxman's imagination

Thunder44 · #3 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:53 pm

Maybe you are right, but they are still looking. Remember they had a difficult time find one with Claudette, but just before they left they found a poorly defined center, but it was still a LLC.

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:55 pm

Okay stupid question time - if they can't find a LLC and its an open - why in the sam's sun are they issuing TS watches and warning?

Someone enlighten me - please.

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:55 pm

I've been staring at a high res visible loop all day and can't find any sign of E or NE cloud motion at the lower levels. Looks like an open wave. May well track more right along the length of Cuba as the 12Z GFS is suggesting, but remaining a wave. Maybe I can take this weekend off.

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:56 pm

One things for sure though...it is very weak if it is there at all. That is what we were saying. One more thing is for sure...it certainly is not where they had it...has to be further south because the winds are 20 kts from the ESE in that area. I don't think they will find one. One may develop later today and they can get it before they leave...but at this moment (and from this morning's posts...when this whole discussion started) there doesn't appear to be one. Will one form later? Maybe...who knows. The whole discussion today has been was there one and the latest recon date confirms my skepticism.

Thunder44 · #7 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:57 pm

It also really doesn't say what was there yesterday either.

#8 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:58 pm

Agreed Wxman...I can't see any hint in the vis...not one. There is some mid level circ but even that is weaker now...as it should be given the decline in convection. I don't think they will find one because it doesn't seem to be there now and there is no convection to spin one up before they can leave.

#9 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:00 pm

Thunder...since there was no recon yesterday...only one ship report and no eastward moving clouds or quikscat to back it up...it is kinda a moot point. NOt enough data to say yes or no to. So yesterday is an end of story.

Thunder44 · #10 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:04 pm

I said that in case you use whatever happens today to point out this was never a TD. The system didn't look as orgainzed today as it did yesterday.

#11 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:10 pm

I guess it really doesn't matter whether it was or wasn't...does it? Who cares? Just means the next one is #10 instead of #9. Doesn't mess with any verification #'s. Again...due to the lack of data there is no point in the debate. I am certain there have been numerous "TD's" out there that were only Td's for a 12 hour period and then opened up...they just didn't get titled because they were far out to sea. Do I think it was? Probably not but today's organization has nothing to do with yesterday.

Bottom line to this debate was my problem with the term "better organized"...which to me it most certainly wasn't. That is what started all of this. Now...recon cannot close off a LLC where the NHC had it. Light and variable winds as far south as 15.8N and due to the fact there is an east wind 40 miles SSW of where the 2PM update had the LLC...that leads me to think there is no LLC and just makes my point that this thing was not better organized. That is what I have been saying. IT certainly looked better yesterday in the lower levels than today.

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:12 pm

Do you think it will completely dissapate and there is no future for this wave formerly known as TD9?

#13 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:18 pm

Thunder wrote on another thread:
"I'm sure they investigated the ship report as well, and they probably know more about the ship and it whearabouts at the time that you are so skeptical of as well, then you, Air Force Met."

Sorry I just saw this or I would have responded. The ship reports are public knowledge. I saw it when it came out. I knew exactly where it was when it came out just as the NHC did. It is public knowledge...you just have to know where to look. Here it is from yesterday...including where it was:
21/18 C6FN4 13.2 -64.5 28.0 280 11 1011.0 0.0 28.0 C6FN4

I was skeptical because I saw the plot...how far it was from the center...and low clouds moving west in between the ship and the LLC. That is enough to perk up any met.

#14 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:19 pm

Ticka...I think it has a future...just a troubled one for a few days until it gets into the GOM.

Scott_inVA · #15 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:21 pm

ticka1 wrote:Okay stupid question time - if they can't find a LLC and its an open - why in the sam's sun are they issuing TS watches and warning?

Someone enlighten me - please.

b/c they are forecasting winds in excess of 40MPH in the watch/warn area. Can happen with a vary strong wave but clearly they were going with some intensification.

Hih

Scott

Guest · #16 Postby **Guest** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:22 pm

Thanks Nelson and Scott for answering my questions.

Once again - wait and see game.

2PM Update - Recon having difficulty finding an LLC

2PM Update - Recon having difficulty finding an LLC

LLC

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