We are definitely seeing the next area to invest out of afri

[Hugo1989]

We are definitely seeing the next area to invest out of africa.

[cycloneye]

Let's wait and see what occurs with this new wave that will be introduced on Friday or Saturday, but at the moment looks interesting.

[Gustywind]

3 nice bulks of convection in the heel of the possible next area to invest...

[Gustywind]

Poof-test required for this nice area of strong convection exiting Africa; but let's wait and see as usual.

[ConvergenceZone]

Since the Sal has decreased and the other waves in front of it have moistened up the atmosphere. this wave has no excuse not to develop....

[Gustywind]

Since the Sal has decreased and the other waves in front of it have moistened up the atmosphere. this wave has no excuse not to develop....

always full of suprises, wait wait wait...

[Hugo1989]

Exactly, there is no excuse for its development.

[Hugo1989]

Since the Sal has decreased and the other waves in front of it have moistened up the atmosphere. this wave has no excuse not to develop....

always full of suprises, wait wait wait...

At this time we will not see surprises!

[KWT]

Since the Sal has decreased and the other waves in front of it have moistened up the atmosphere. this wave has no excuse not to develop....

Still more then enough SAL in the region to stablise the air that is around it, I wouldn't hold you breath on development, even in super favourable CV years, a good percentage of the waves won't make it till mid-late August.

[Gustywind]

Since the Sal has decreased and the other waves in front of it have moistened up the atmosphere. this wave has no excuse not to develop....

always full of suprises, wait wait wait...

At this time we will not see surprises!

You think? Let's wait before getting too much excited

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC...

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N13W 10N26W 11N35 10N44W 10N62W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM S
OF AXIS E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS ALSO NOTED NEAR 9N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR

[KWT]

Northern convection is pretty much gone, still too much stable SAL air up there, though convection along the ITCZ is still present.

[Weatherfreak000]

Needs to make it to 30W

[ConvergenceZone]

Since the Sal has decreased and the other waves in front of it have moistened up the atmosphere. this wave has no excuse not to develop....

Still more then enough SAL in the region to stablise the air that is around it, I wouldn't hold you breath on development, even in super favourable CV years, a good percentage of the waves won't make it till mid-late August.

It did poof. I guess you were right...See you at the end of August....

[Category 5]

Lesson to all, don't jump on a waves bandwagon when its still over Africa, 95% of them poof the second they hit the coast.

[Ivanhater]

It's not poof. These waves are coming off at a higher latitude and stronger. These are great players down the road. Never turn your back on these...

[Gustywind]

Lesson to all, don't jump on a waves bandwagon when its still over Africa, 95% of them poof the second they hit the coast.

Absolutelty Category 5 that's what i was saying when i wrote "full of surprises"... the potential is there but just wait wait wait, let the things cook steadily is the best ingredient to see these bubbles waves making organize popcorn Matter of days right now, the second part of this month should see at least one storm for sure as the SAL is moving away and upper levels winds continue to be more favorable.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's not poof. These waves are coming off at a higher latitude and stronger. These are great players down the road. Never turn your back on these...

Hey Ivan, I probably should have clarified my post. What I meant is that the convection "poofed", and my comment about "see you at the end of August" was regarding the waves holding convection and developing as a long tracker
once emerging off the coast of Africa.

[KWT]

Needs to make it to 30W

The main problem is the SAL will outrun the waves more often then not and this means that current more moist spot will soon be SAL'd again so to speak. Still its not as bad as it was a good 7-10 days ago, though I think with the Azores high staying strong, don't be expecting the SAL to be going away anytime in the next 10-15 days to any great degree.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, there must be ALOT of dry air out there. It's amazing how void of convection the Atlantic is right now, looking at that last loop.