Convection in Yucatan

[bbadon]

So whats going on at 20/70 . Rember that 1to punch scenario come of the models alluding to.

[boca]

Its a tutt low north of Puerto Rico.That got my interest last night while looking at Bonnie.

[TheBurn]

Off Topic: Can every one take a peak at 20 70 and comment in talking tropics. Remember the 1 2 punch?

Is this what you're talking about? I've been watching this area while Bonnie has been bearing down on FL.
It was Bonnie's "Tail", if you will, at one point... maybe it is the 1-2 punch?

[Vortmax1]

I suppose anything can happen.

There's another TUTT to the North of this area that will be shearing the area into Sunday and high pressure is forecast to move in after the T wave passes through.
Puerto Rico NWS is calling for pleasant weathernext week.

It doesn't look favorable for tropical development.

[sandyb]

i was wondering about this as well
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

[TheBurn]

[TheBurn]

I know conditions are not favorable, and looking at the MIMIC pretty much confirms there's "nothing behind this", but...
To my amateur eyes it just looks like something is trying to get going in this area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Is that an upper level feature N of Hispaniola?

[lrak]

Another one, this IS going to be a busy season.

[HouTXmetro]

BUSY but weak...THANK GOD these systems are struggling to develop till it's too late. So far at least.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec4ir304

Convective activity enhanced by another ULL

[Riptide]

I suppose you can't disregard it entirely based on this vorticity chart. Perhaps it will obtain invest status if it sustains this area of vorticity.
Opps, this is my first post!

It is true that I have been lurking around the forum for some time as a guest. I'm proud to join the wonderful tropical discussion that occurs on storm2k.

[HURAKAN]

welcome to S2K, riptide. That's very high up in the atmosphere, mid to upper levels. It also shows up at 750 mb but nothing at 850 mb. We need to keep an eye on it but at the moment, nothing to worry about.

[Nimbus]

There is some convection converging just off the tip of Hispaniola, probably from the TUTT interacting with tropical wave in the vicinity. The upper air environment looks a little better but with the proximity to land I don't know if this could be considered a favored area for development. Did JB mention a scenario with this wave?

[HURAKAN]

18z map ... wave approaching

[HURAKAN]

Link - http://www.accuweather.com/video/193964 ... l=vbbastaj

JB video talking about this system, but he also says that the wave behind (now in the central atlantic) will play a role but everything is for next week.

[Nimbus]

The area had the look of something going warm core in the water vapor imagery. Notice how the convection is converging toward the center of the mid level circulation? Once the tropical wave adds its energy maybe we will see some fireworks.

[StarmanHDB]

OK....I think I see some very clear circulation for two t-waves roughly situated near 18N, 69W and 17.5N, 59W. For the sake of my own personal education, what's the current meteorological story on these two? Remember, I'm still learning so educative responses are greatly appreciated!

Thanks!

[HURAKAN]

Interesting

[HURAKAN]

vorticity increasing