TD Bonnie OT - split from Discussion thread

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Steve
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TD Bonnie OT - split from Discussion thread

#1 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 23, 2010 5:03 pm

>>Hey Steve, you want to give me some static about me being a ECM lover? I will take it.... :lol:

I always was too and still am. I'll take a week out ECMWF over any other model I have access to. We all know it's left biased, and yeah, you and I live on the left-side of the basin. But there are plenty of examples of everything from VIPR to NAM, to UKMET, to NOGAPS to the CMC to the GFS, to Clipper hitting something that no other model got. It's just that the synoptics progged by the ECMWF in the mid-range seem to be superior. I don't have the statistical data to back that up, but it's obviously an invaluable tool. But you guys were all over it to the point of picking on some of the mad South Florida residents who rightly claimed that this storm was theirs. While I will never understand why weather nerds battle it out in the wobble, model and statecasting wars, or why people bring bravado and machismo into being "right" when 99% of the time they're just lucky, it was pretty obvious you guys were playing it up. Now it was clear to me that you were just goofing around, but obviously some in FL were getting aggravated by the gloating style of the posts. It was kind of funny at times, to me, but some people take their state getting the landfall seriously. I think the worst battles are TX v. FL and NC v. FL. JMO

Anyway, all models lose with Bonnie.

And so I don't get *****ed at for posting this in the discussion thread, I agree with the poster above who said it's coming back into the water. I don't expect it to do much of anything, but I do expect that we'll be able to track the remnant surface low/swirl throughout the day tomorrow. Maybe some of us on the NGC get lucky and some weather accompanies it inland (talking some tropical showers or a feeder band or two). Regardlessly, I don't think most of us are going to have to wait until next year for tropical threats which should be a'plenty in the next 12 weeks or so. They're coming - probably some real big threats too. Too many people are hemming and hawing about how this isn't going to be a high-number season - again, so they can be right. Yippee. You were right. You don't win anything. You don't gain credibility if you guessed at something that was based on pure luck. Sure, I posted last night that I thought the system would come in in Miami-Dade or Broward and would exit south of Charlotte County. And yeah, I was right. But it only sustains the credibility that comes with being both right and wrong and trying to base what I post on many years of storm watching. I don't claim to be the greatest - far from it. But I'd like to think that the site is far better if I'm here than if I'm not. Maybe if other posters used that same rationale - what are they bringing to the table (humor? analysis? experience? pictures or videos? quality questions?), the site wouldn't have a bunch of wormy people with pocket protectors, plaid shirts and caved in chests fighting over who is the biggest weather weenie of them all!

:)
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#2 Postby fci » Fri Jul 23, 2010 5:29 pm

Steve wrote:>>Hey Steve, you want to give me some static about me being a ECM lover? I will take it.... :lol:

I always was too and still am. I'll take a week out ECMWF over any other model I have access to. We all know it's left biased, and yeah, you and I live on the left-side of the basin. But there are plenty of examples of everything from VIPR to NAM, to UKMET, to NOGAPS to the CMC to the GFS, to Clipper hitting something that no other model got. It's just that the synoptics progged by the ECMWF in the mid-range seem to be superior. I don't have the statistical data to back that up, but it's obviously an invaluable tool. But you guys were all over it to the point of picking on some of the mad South Florida residents who rightly claimed that this storm was theirs. While I will never understand why weather nerds battle it out in the wobble, model and statecasting wars, or why people bring bravado and machismo into being "right" when 99% of the time they're just lucky, it was pretty obvious you guys were playing it up. Now it was clear to me that you were just goofing around, but obviously some in FL were getting aggravated by the gloating style of the posts. It was kind of funny at times, to me, but some people take their state getting the landfall seriously. I think the worst battles are TX v. FL and NC v. FL. JMO

Anyway, all models lose with Bonnie.

And so I don't get *****ed at for posting this in the discussion thread, I agree with the poster above who said it's coming back into the water. I don't expect it to do much of anything, but I do expect that we'll be able to track the remnant surface low/swirl throughout the day tomorrow. Maybe some of us on the NGC get lucky and some weather accompanies it inland (talking some tropical showers or a feeder band or two). Regardlessly, I don't think most of us are going to have to wait until next year for tropical threats which should be a'plenty in the next 12 weeks or so. They're coming - probably some real big threats too. Too many people are hemming and hawing about how this isn't going to be a high-number season - again, so they can be right. Yippee. You were right. You don't win anything. You don't gain credibility if you guessed at something that was based on pure luck. Sure, I posted last night that I thought the system would come in in Miami-Dade or Broward and would exit south of Charlotte County. And yeah, I was right. But it only sustains the credibility that comes with being both right and wrong and trying to base what I post on many years of storm watching. I don't claim to be the greatest - far from it. But I'd like to think that the site is far better if I'm here than if I'm not. Maybe if other posters used that same rationale - what are they bringing to the table (humor? analysis? experience? pictures or videos? quality questions?), the site wouldn't have a bunch of wormy people with pocket protectors, plaid shirts and caved in chests fighting over who is the biggest weather weenie of them all!

:)


Steve:
Thank you!!!! :D
Thank you for expressing many of the thoughts that I have here on S2K.
I'm am also sick of those who want to be "right".
They are simple guessing and sometimes they are right.
Now, if they are using some "basis" for their predictions, then bravo to them and I respect that.
But many just "guess" and then expect great kudos for being right once in a while.

Oh, and as long as I am venting, PEOPLE, DO NOT BASH ANY PRO METS!!!
This board is not any better than anything else if we chase them away.
I want their thoughts and they will be wrong sometimes but at least their thoughts are based on science. They have so much more knowledge than many of you who want a marching band and a parade when you guess correctly.

Thank you again Steve.
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#3 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 23, 2010 5:44 pm

No problem fci. The mods haven't cracked the whip on the post yet, so I'm probably in the clear for now. It's a good lesson for everybody. There's other stuff too. A lot of people on these forums (especially real novices) probably shouldn't be because they don't understand tropical weather enough to interact. And that goes double for those who absolutely live in nervous fear over hurricanes. Questions are fine, but if a storm is at 40W and someone is wondering if South Texas is out of the woods yet, they ought to be paying attention to the NWS or TPC or just reading and trying to learn. That's no knock on new posters or people who get interested for whatever reason. No doubt in a given season, 50 people will ask for a link to the FSU model site or even looking for a basic satellite link. Someone will answer that question. But people should keep it in reason. Wasting a pro met's time by asking 4 days out if an area not even under a watch yet should expect x inches of rain is putting too much on them and wasting their valuable time. Speaking of pro mets, people should feel free to disagree with them if they feel they missed something or if they want to propose an alternative scenario. But I don't think the moderators are going to allow trolling the best posters we have on the site. Being e-tough on a weather forum is pretty weak.

/rants off
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TD Bonnie OT - split from Discussion thread

#4 Postby fci » Fri Jul 23, 2010 5:56 pm

Steve wrote:No problem fci. The mods haven't cracked the whip on the post yet, so I'm probably in the clear for now. It's a good lesson for everybody. There's other stuff too. A lot of people on these forums (especially real novices) probably shouldn't be because they don't understand tropical weather enough to interact. And that goes double for those who absolutely live in nervous fear over hurricanes. Questions are fine, but if a storm is at 40W and someone is wondering if South Texas is out of the woods yet, they ought to be paying attention to the NWS or TPC or just reading and trying to learn. That's no knock on new posters or people who get interested for whatever reason. No doubt in a given season, 50 people will ask for a link to the FSU model site or even looking for a basic satellite link. Someone will answer that question. But people should keep it in reason. Wasting a pro met's time by asking 4 days out if an area not even under a watch yet should expect x inches of rain is putting too much on them and wasting their valuable time. Speaking of pro mets, people should feel free to disagree with them if they feel they missed something or if they want to propose an alternative scenario. But I don't think the moderators are going to allow trolling the best posters we have on the site. Being e-tough on a weather forum is pretty weak.

/rants off


It's how one questions a Pro Met or states why they disagree. Going after them to harrass them for a forecast that did not pan out is out of bounds. Mods did take care of the person who started this conversation so they are doing their job well.

Unless one has something to add, it is best to lurk and learn.
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TD Bonnie OT - split from Discussion thread

#5 Postby MWatkins » Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:04 pm

Steve wrote:No problem fci. The mods haven't cracked the whip on the post yet, so I'm probably in the clear for now. It's a good lesson for everybody. There's other stuff too. A lot of people on these forums (especially real novices) probably shouldn't be because they don't understand tropical weather enough to interact. And that goes double for those who absolutely live in nervous fear over hurricanes. Questions are fine, but if a storm is at 40W and someone is wondering if South Texas is out of the woods yet, they ought to be paying attention to the NWS or TPC or just reading and trying to learn. That's no knock on new posters or people who get interested for whatever reason. No doubt in a given season, 50 people will ask for a link to the FSU model site or even looking for a basic satellite link. Someone will answer that question. But people should keep it in reason. Wasting a pro met's time by asking 4 days out if an area not even under a watch yet should expect x inches of rain is putting too much on them and wasting their valuable time. Speaking of pro mets, people should feel free to disagree with them if they feel they missed something or if they want to propose an alternative scenario. But I don't think the moderators are going to allow trolling the best posters we have on the site. Being e-tough on a weather forum is pretty weak.

/rants off


Bleeping great discussion guys! Really, really good stuff. Before I go into that more, I'll do a little to keep this thread on Bonnie...

If Bonnie is going to hold on, it needs to regenerate some deep convection and soon.

Well developed storms simply do not fall apart over the southern 3rd of Florida like Bonnie has. There's the everglades and water on both sides (and to the south)...remember Katrina with an excellent upper environment exited southern Florida stronger than when it went in.

That should tell you all you need to know about Bonnie's collapse today...the features around it in the atmosphere are simply hostile, and I am honestly surprised it is still on the map.

Back to the discussion...Steve I think you nailed what it means to contribute here. I was aghast to realize this is my 8th year on this board, and a lot of us were on the Lowes board for years before that.

That's a lot of time to be reading stuff...and we all see the crazy wobble watching and "location centric" predictions that happen here.

Yet there are a lot of people who know how to filter through that stuff and still add a lot. There are people that never post but who I have met in person...who have told me how much they take away from the knowledge that is in here.

I remember when someone posted a fake VDM during Ivan...and a forecaster on the Weather Channel read it on the air in the middle of the night...what does that tell you about who is reading?

So...over the years I have become less and less sensitive to the "forecasting"...better..."predicting" that goes on here because for some people, that's what makes this place fun...

But there are other folks, like Steve, wxman57, FCI, (not to be an all inclusive list) who come from completely different backgrounds and educational paths, and still have very valuable perspectives to contribute.

That's why I always seem to end up back here...

MW
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TD Bonnie OT Discusssion (split)

#6 Postby imetrice » Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:50 pm

Steve wrote:No problem fci. The mods haven't cracked the whip on the post yet, so I'm probably in the clear for now. It's a good lesson for everybody. There's other stuff too. A lot of people on these forums (especially real novices) probably shouldn't be because they don't understand tropical weather enough to interact. And that goes double for those who absolutely live in nervous fear over hurricanes. Questions are fine, but if a storm is at 40W and someone is wondering if South Texas is out of the woods yet, they ought to be paying attention to the NWS or TPC or just reading and trying to learn. That's no knock on new posters or people who get interested for whatever reason. No doubt in a given season, 50 people will ask for a link to the FSU model site or even looking for a basic satellite link. Someone will answer that question. But people should keep it in reason. Wasting a pro met's time by asking 4 days out if an area not even under a watch yet should expect x inches of rain is putting too much on them and wasting their valuable time. Speaking of pro mets, people should feel free to disagree with them if they feel they missed something or if they want to propose an alternative scenario. But I don't think the moderators are going to allow trolling the best posters we have on the site. Being e-tough on a weather forum is pretty weak.

/rants off


As a novice, I enjoyed not only the community feeling of this board, but also the variety of commentary from a variety of interest and skill levels. It offers an opportunity to learn as well as interact with people who share the same interests. While I may not be able to discuss at length as some more seasoned posters, I always felt welcome. There really is no other community like this one that allows novices and professionals to interact in such a positive way. I hope that is still the case.
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Re: TD Bonnie OT Discusssion (split)

#7 Postby southerngale » Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:51 pm

imetrice wrote:As a novice, I enjoyed not only the community feeling of this board, but also the variety of commentary from a variety of interest and skill levels. It offers an opportunity to learn as well as interact with people who share the same interests. While I may not be able to discuss at length as some more seasoned posters, I always felt welcome. There really is no other community like this one that allows novices and professionals to interact in such a positive way. I hope that is still the case.


It is still the case and I love Storm2k for all the reasons you mentioned above. And I've met some awesome people here! :)

Btw, I split the above posts from the Bonnie Discussion thread so people could reply if they wanted to without getting off topic in that thread.
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#8 Postby scogor » Fri Jul 23, 2010 8:15 pm

Great comments, all. I've been lurking and infrequently posting here for a good number of years (before Charley and when the aforementioned Lowe's was still in play) and continue to look to storm2k and its contributors during hurricane season. i assume that most of us very quickly learn to filter out the "noise" and it also (as our newbies will learn) doesn't take very long to appreciate the knowledge and experience that posters such as Mike bring to the table. Believe me, those of us with no background in meteorology really appreciate storm2k and all of the mets that contribute here--especially those of us that live in areas that will sooner or later be impacted by a tropical system. Thanks to all of you.
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Re: TD Bonnie OT - split from Discussion thread

#9 Postby shell70 » Fri Jul 23, 2010 8:28 pm

Great thread Steve. Agree with everything. I have been coming to storm2k for a while but took a little time off over the last two years due to work and my daughters. I love this site and it is so helpful when there is a storm. One of the thing that I love about storm2k is that we have some great weather forecasters that give their free time to come here and give their expertise on the subject and the storm.

And if you are wondering who I am I was beachbum and stormy from al. I think I was deleted out of the system since it had been so long since I logged on. LOL

Back on subject with Bonnie. I hope to get out tomorrow and take pictures if possible if she remains a minor threat to us along the Alabama Coast. Anyway stay safe and prepare and thanks Steve for everything you said. We do love our professional mets who come here and give us great information advice!
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Re: TD Bonnie OT - split from Discussion thread

#10 Postby Stephanie » Fri Jul 23, 2010 8:37 pm

Nice thread guys and gals! :)
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Re: TD Bonnie OT - split from Discussion thread

#11 Postby shell70 » Fri Jul 23, 2010 10:08 pm

They way I look at it the professional mets works long hours when the weather is bad (tropical, tornadoes, winter weather, etc) I seen our local mets stay on the t.v. for long hours when there has been a severe storm or hurricane. Hearing a familiar voice in the dark does something to calm you. I remember during the dark hours of Ivan when it was headed straight for my hometown at full speed and hearing the calm voice of our local mets. One of our mets even lost his house in Dauphin Island but he remain on the local news to help us. And I love it when the professional mets come on here and give us their opinion and expertise on what is going on. A lot of time they have kept me from panic mode. I hope they know how much we do appreciate them. :)
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#12 Postby Madpoodle » Sat Jul 24, 2010 4:17 am

FSU has a model site???? :ggreen: :ggreen:
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