My Thoughts on 2003 Season

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wxman57
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My Thoughts on 2003 Season

#1 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:10 pm

Each season, about this time, I get asked over and over again "I thought this was going to be an active season - where are all those big storms?". Each year, my answer is that the season really doesn't get started until the 3rd week of August. Typically, we may see only 2 storms or depressions by mid August.

This year, I'm heaing "What's up with the tropics? The depressions just can't get going and develop. Looks like a dud season. There won't be any big storms."

Well, I was thinking about that today, and I think I have an answer. As I said, we typically have only a couple of sysetms that develop before this point in the season. This year we've had <b>NINE!</b> Now just because only 5 of those 9 have developed into storms (2 hurricanes, 1 that should have been called a hurricane, and two TSs). I'd say that the season has far outpaced my expectations so far. We don't normally have a major hurrricane by August 22nd.

Remember that the tropics are not fully favorable for development/intensification until the third week of August in many seasons. What I see this year is a tremendous number of incipient storms. The Cape Verde season is way more active than normal for so early. Once the dry air erodes (and it is), and once the wind shear relaxes (which it is), we'll see less "struggling" storms. It's just a matter of time. Sea Surface temperatures are well above normal, and that warm water is concentrated in the southwestern Atlantic. I fully expect 2 to 3 major hurricanes before the end of September.

And as my signature below says, it's not the number, it's the <b>PATTERN</b>. And the pattern this year is such that systems will be steered toward Florida or the southeast U.S.. I'm afraid that region has a very high chance of a major hurricane landfall this season. Be careful what you wish for.
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#2 Postby Colin » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:18 pm

Very true, wxman...thanks!! :)
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:22 pm

No much to add as I agree 100%.
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#4 Postby mf_dolphin » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:23 pm

Well said Wxman57! We've got a lot of season left and everything is pretty active from my point of view. Just remember..."Be careful what you ask fo. You might just get it!" :-)
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#5 Postby ameriwx2003 » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:34 pm

Wxman57. Great point, yes a quick look at climo will tell people the height of the Hurricane is yet to arrive:):):)
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