Category 5 in Atlantic Basin in 2010?

[StormClouds63]

Since there's nothing to do but wait until there's something to track out there, here's a very simple question on which we can speculate. Will we have a category 5 storm (or storms) in the Atlantic basin in 2010? Yes or no.

To put in perspective, the last category 5's were Dean and Felix in 2007. In 2005, we had Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Ivan was a Category 5 for a while in 2004. Isabel in 2003 had that great satellite appearance w/classic donut shape. Mitch was also a Cat 5 in 1998. Andrew in 1992, Hugo in 1989, and Gilbert in 1988 also reached Cat 5. I'm no good in math, but I think that averages out to one category 5 storm every two years since 1988.

Anyway, make your guess, and elaborate if you wish. We've probably got 10-14 days of waiting until Colin appears.

My guess? No Category 5's this year, but a couple of category 4's (Danielle and Fiona) and a category 3 (Hermine).

Impossible to speculate if and where landfalls will occur. Some analog years include lots of "fish" while others have higher rates of land falling systems.

[ColinDelia]

My speculation would be the same as yours. Some majors but no 5.

[KWT]

Gosh thats just a lucky dip type quesrtion really, some of the slower seasons in history have had category-5s, such as 1992 with Andrew and 1977 with Anita...meaznwhile some big seasons like 1995 didn't have a category-5...its really in the lap of the gods...

[somethingfunny]

You said it's impossible to speculate when or if any landfalls will occur, but are comfortable speculating that Danielle, Fiona, and Hermine will be our majors. How did you come to that degree of confidence?

For my part, I think we will see an Atlantic Category Five hurricane in 2010. The SSTs/TCHP are so insane, it seems like any system that finds a favorable environment ought to really take off like mad.

[hurricaneCW]

I see no reason why we shouldn't see a Cat 5 especially considering how warm the waters are. I could see 2 Cat 5's easy.

[KWT]

Given the tracks should feature at least one big storm going through the Caribbean I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a category-5, La Ninas do tend to feature one quite often, esp in first year Ninas.

[Ivanhater]

I would say if we are going to see a Cat 5, this is the year to see it. With the record SST, TCHP and forecast of low pressure anomalies and lower wind shear, this adds to the threat of Cat 5.

[SeminoleWind]

id bet we see at least 2.
1 in September and 1 in October.

[Riptide]

id bet we see at least 2.
1 in September and 1 in October.

Considering how warm Sea Surface Temperatures are, I wouldn't be surprised if we had another bonus Cat 5 during September.

[Macrocane]

I think we may see 1 or 2, more probable to see just 1. As some of you have stated given the high SST, the high TCHP and the fact we're in La Niña (2007, 1998, 1988 were La Niñas) makes me think that it is very possbile.

[Jinkers]

I think we will, for the reasons stated above.

[SeminoleWind]

i think the next question should be how many majors will make landfall let alone a 5?

[blazess556]

we definitely have at least 1. conditions will become right for one.

[Patrick99]

I think we will see a Cat 5. I think it will be a lumbering late October W Carib. beast along the lines of Mitch or Wilma.

[Florida1118]

I think we will see a Cat 5. I think it will be a lumbering late October W Carib. beast along the lines of Mitch or Wilma.

I hope your wrong. Oct. storms love Florida, like Wilma. I think there will be 1-2.

[Ptarmigan]

I think it is possible. I would not be surprised if we see more than one Category 5 hurricane.

[bvigal]

Emily in 2005 also was a Cat 5, and in July!

I think we could definitely see at least one this year, two would not even seem unreasonable.

[abajan]

I think we will see a Cat 5. I think it will be a lumbering late October W Carib. beast along the lines of Mitch or Wilma.

Mitch will live in the memories of those in Honduras for a very long time.
As to whether we'll see Cat5’s this year, I think there will be at least one. La Niña, warm sea surface temps - it all seems to point to a biggy occurring sometime during the season.

[Texas Snowman]

You said it's impossible to speculate when or if any landfalls will occur, but are comfortable speculating that Danielle, Fiona, and Hermine will be our majors. How did you come to that degree of confidence?

For my part, I think we will see an Atlantic Category Five hurricane in 2010. The SSTs/TCHP are so insane, it seems like any system that finds a favorable environment ought to really take off like mad.

Yep, insane SSTs. I'm calling for TWO Cat 5's this season for that reason.

[jinftl]

My guess is that if we are going to see a storm reach Cat 5 this season it will be in the western caribbean....late season...thinking along the lines of Mitch and Wilma in terms of location and time of year.