Category Four hurricanes in the Mid-Atlantic

[neospaceblue]

What are the odds of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane striking north of Georgia? Because of the forecast for an active season, I am concerned that because of the high SSTs, that the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions are at a greater threat this year to recieve a major hurricane. I also wanted to know how many systems have made landfall north of Florida at Category 4.

[Cyclone1]

I believe Hugo was the last. Cat 4 into SC. Nothing else comes to mind as far as Category 4's go except Diana, which didn't landfall as a category 4, if I remember correctly. Also, Hazel and Gracie came considerably close, and they might as well have been category 4's at landfall. Helene in 1958 came close, too, but never made landfall.

[KWT]

Category-4s are exceptionally rare for anywhere north of say 35N when it comes to landfalls. So the risk any year of such an event happening is small even in years that may favour East coast activity somewhat.

[hurricaneCW]

It's not even the water temps that cause east coast systems to weaken, but rather the dry,stable continental and higher wind shear. Most storms that try to tackle the east coast north of Florida get opposed by unfavorable factors so they weaken. Everything has to be perfect for a Category 4 hurricane. It's actually possible for a Category 4 to reach as far north as south Jersey if the environment aloft is perfect.

[Stephanie]

If we were to even get hit by a Category 2 in Southern New Jersey, we'd be screwed. We are way overdue for a hurricane to strike and hopefully it would be a Category 1 and no more.

[Riptide]

When I think of Mid-Atlantic hurricanes I think of Hurricane Isabel and the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. Both systems made landfall as a Category 2 and Category 5 hurricane respectively and in the same general area near Wilmington, NC.

Isabel is the most recent of the two but weakened considerably before landfall which reaffirms what HurricaneCW said above that conditions aloft need to be perfect.

The Norfolk and Long Island hurricane is particularily interesting because it shares characteristics with another infamous hurricane, the 1938 Long Island Express. Supposedly, it was moving at over 50 mph when it made landfall near Wilmington, NC which only magnified the wind gradient. It was probably a category 3 or 4 hurricane that was pushing against a large ridge(High Pressure) which generated alot of wind. Some observations report over 160 mph wind gusts but these are very questionable obviously.

Here is the track and some general information



Wikipedia Article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfo ... _Hurricane

[Scorpion]

Heh, I'm guessing that graphic is a bit inaccurate. It surprises me that such inaccuracies are aloud to be posted. 135-160 mph winds with a 995 mb pressure???

[Riptide]

Heh, I'm guessing that graphic is a bit inaccurate. It surprises me that such inaccuracies are aloud to be posted. 135-160 mph winds with a 995 mb pressure???

Yes, It isn't my map and I felt it was a good representation of track. Forgot to point that out, thanks. I guess it gives credit to a massive pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure center. The hurricane was probably traveling through a very small weakness in the ridge as you can see it was not entirely recurved.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf

Contains the latest governmental postmortem research findings concerning several major NE hurricanes (1635, 1815, 1938 and Carol of 1954), amongst other infamous storms. It is certainly an illuminating resource for the topic at hand.

[Riptide]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf

Contains the latest governmental postmortem research findings concerning several major NE hurricanes (1635, 1815, 1938 and Carol of 1954), amongst other infamous storms. It is certainly an illuminating resource for the topic at hand.

Thank you for this very insightful information.

[Chacor]

Heh, I'm guessing that graphic is a bit inaccurate. It surprises me that such inaccuracies are aloud to be posted. 135-160 mph winds with a 995 mb pressure???

Yes, It isn't my map and I felt it was a good representation of track. Forgot to point that out, thanks. I guess it gives credit to a massive pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure center. The hurricane was probably traveling through a very small weakness in the ridge as you can see it was not entirely recurved.

I believe 995mbar is the highest known pressure; obviously there aren't reliable estimates or records from then.

[neospaceblue]

The right-front quadrant of Hurricane Isabel screwed us over in Hampton Roads, VA about 100 miles north of the landfall point, and that came in at 85 knots. I can't imagine what a 110-115 knot hurricane would do to this region.

[Stephanie]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf

Contains the latest governmental postmortem research findings concerning several major NE hurricanes (1635, 1815, 1938 and Carol of 1954), amongst other infamous storms. It is certainly an illuminating resource for the topic at hand.

That's a great link! Thanks!

Riptide - thanks for the map of the 1821 Norfolk/Long Island hurricane. That's a perfect setup for one to do some destruction along the New Jersey coast now a days.