http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03082300
Will it be a TD by 11 PM as the header of the text says or it will still be an open wave? It depends on what recon finds as it is flying right now.
00:00 UTC Tropical model suite
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- cycloneye
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00:00 UTC Tropical model suite
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- wxman57
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Evidence
You really have to control your enthusiasm when forecasting tropical development. There is no evidence to suggest that a LLC exists. I was just studying a 12-hr IR satellite loop for clues. Train your eyes to NOT look at the bright colors on enhanced IR imagery - they'll fool you every time with a weak system like this. Instead de-focus and look at the dim, gray clouds near the surface. What do you see?
While the bright-colored clouds appear to be moving NW-NNW, there is clear evidence of a large-scale tropical wave moving WNW across the bright convection. It appears that the flare-up of convection moved from the leading edge of the wave to the crest, and now it's reaching the back side of the wave. Remember when this happened earlier this season (I had pointed it out)? The convection died out as the wave axis passed and began moving away, as appears to be happening now.
If you let your eye follow the bright high clouds, you'd think that the former TD is moving almost due north, but it's not. Why do you think that the tropical models move it WNW? They're tracking the underlying wave, not the convective blob.
So it's still just an open wave, will be at 10pm CDT, and likely will be in the morning. There's a good chance it'll eventually become a TD, though. Just give it time. And look at the dim gray clouds near the surface for evidence of a LLC circulation.
While the bright-colored clouds appear to be moving NW-NNW, there is clear evidence of a large-scale tropical wave moving WNW across the bright convection. It appears that the flare-up of convection moved from the leading edge of the wave to the crest, and now it's reaching the back side of the wave. Remember when this happened earlier this season (I had pointed it out)? The convection died out as the wave axis passed and began moving away, as appears to be happening now.
If you let your eye follow the bright high clouds, you'd think that the former TD is moving almost due north, but it's not. Why do you think that the tropical models move it WNW? They're tracking the underlying wave, not the convective blob.
So it's still just an open wave, will be at 10pm CDT, and likely will be in the morning. There's a good chance it'll eventually become a TD, though. Just give it time. And look at the dim gray clouds near the surface for evidence of a LLC circulation.
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- wxman57
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ColdFront77 wrote:I know exactly what you are talking about, wxman.
Haven't we seen surface lows develop under deep convection in past tropical cyclones?
If so, then what may develop under that convection can be further north after the current WNW movement.
Actually, what you described is exactly what happened with Erika. The LLC re-formed beneath the heavy convection associated with the MLC. But in this case, the convection may be on its way out as the wave axis moves out. Have to keep an eye on that MLC, though. Can't absolutely rule out a center re-forming near it.
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