Impressive blob east of 91L

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Brent
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Impressive blob east of 91L

#1 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 02, 2010 2:03 am

Anyone having any thoughts on this?

Saving the image in case it poofs:

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91L on the far left, looking at the blob to the right. Very cold tops.
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abajan
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Re: Impressive blob east of 91L

#2 Postby abajan » Mon Aug 02, 2010 3:27 am

Yep. I just noticed this myself. We may well be observing the birth of the next invest.
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#3 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:59 am

I'm not sure but I do believe the models maybe doing something with it, the ECM is actually slightly stronger with it.

IF 91L gets going though, this one is going to get sheared badly.
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Re: Impressive blob east of 91L

#4 Postby ColinDelia » Mon Aug 02, 2010 6:02 am

Image
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Re: Impressive blob east of 91L

#5 Postby ColinDelia » Mon Aug 02, 2010 7:12 am

From 8 am discussion.

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 9N26W 11N40W 9N49W 10N57W
10N63W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 11.5N27.5W TO 9.5N30W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 26W-32W.
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Re: Impressive blob east of 91L

#6 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 02, 2010 10:19 am

Could become another one right behind TD4.
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Re: Impressive blob east of 91L

#7 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:18 pm

Agree. Mystified as to why it is being ignored. Looks like more of a player soon than #4.
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#8 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:37 pm

Just barfed out a huge outflow boundary, most of the convection is pretty much still in the ITCZ.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 02, 2010 2:05 pm

Image

We need to keep an eye on it. Just like pre-TD #4, convection has persisted for a long time.
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#10 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 02, 2010 2:08 pm

Its right up the butt of TD4, its going to need TD4 to die first to have a shot at developing I'd have thought....

Only ITCZ convection, no wave with this at all.
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Re:

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 02, 2010 2:12 pm

KWT wrote:Its right up the butt of TD4, its going to need TD4 to die first to have a shot at developing I'd have thought....

Only ITCZ convection, no wave with this at all.


Looking at the loops, it's moving a lot slower, if at all, compared to TD #4. A tropical wave should leave the African coast soon, at least convection is increasing near the coast.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 02, 2010 2:13 pm

Image

not bad in this pic
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 02, 2010 2:37 pm

Image

a loop of both systems
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#14 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 02, 2010 2:42 pm

Will be interesting to see how it evolves given the models do develop something at 72hrs time as the wave you mention Hurakan comes along. Certainly could get mentioned soon.
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 02, 2010 2:45 pm

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Re: Impressive blob east of 91L

#16 Postby bvigal » Mon Aug 02, 2010 3:24 pm

It looks like a re-run of TD4 a couple of days ago. This time of year, not unusual for this (big 'blobs' to form, build, die) in this area under low shear/SAL conditions, so I would want to see persistance before it gets much of my attention.
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Re: Impressive blob east of 91L

#17 Postby NOLA2010 » Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:14 pm

If this can stay together for a little longer, it could be a player if it reaches the Caribbean later in the week.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 9:33 am

Image

some inflow appears to be developing, looking better
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:13 pm

I'm thinking Colin might just be eating up the dry air to set this one up and this could become an extremely dangerous Danielle.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:16 pm

Image

latest
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