CSU (Klotzbach/Gray) Update

[HURRICANELONNY]

Not worth saying if he will raise his #'s. He updates on 8/4. I think he'll drop 1-2 names. Mainly because of a strong La Nina forming. I still think it will be a very active season. We are just starting the upward part of the Bell curve.

[cycloneye]

18/10/5 were the numbers the Klotzbach / Gray team had on June 2nd. My guess is they will go down only by one in each category.

[StormClouds63]

I think it should be a bigger reduction:
From 18/10/5 to: 14/7/3 (that would include 3 storms so far). Thus, 11/6/3 remaining for the 2010 season.

[KWT]

They won't go nearly that low, and whilst thats probably somewhat more reasonable given the strength of the La Nina, thats too big of a drop considering where we are right now...

Your effectivly suggesting a season not much different to 2006/2009...and conditions are more favourable then that season even with the TUTT and the SAL outbreak at the moment!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I can't beleive how fast La Nina formed. There are area's near South America that are near -5 degrees sst's anomalies.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 2.2010.gif

[Stormcenter]

Honestly does it really matter? I mean if he does reduce 1,2 or 3. What difference does it make if we have only 12 named storms but 7 are majors? The bottom line is how strong and where they end up. Not how many.

[KWT]

Amen to that Stormcenter, that being said with the TUTT set-up currently, unless that shifts we probably will only get 2, maybe 3 majors....BUT you are on the money when you say what matters is how many storm ones and where they go thats the key...could have only 2 majors but they smash land and that'd be a bad season.

[AtlanticWind]

New Update 18/10/5

[HURAKAN]

New Update 18/10/5

Link - http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... ug2010.pdf

[AtlanticWind]

Conditions in the Atlantic remain very favorable for an active Atlantic hurricane season. SST anomalies across the MDR and the Caribbean are currently running at near-record levels (Figure 15). These warm anomalies developed during the late winter and early spring months due to a very weak Azores High and a consequent reduction in the strength of the trade winds. July sea level pressure anomalies have been well below average throughout the tropical Atlantic (Figure 16), feeding back into continued reduced trade wind strength. This positive feedback has helped to keep tropical Atlantic SST anomalies at very warm levels. We believe that the very warm tropical Atlantic combined with a likely moderate La Niña event will lead to a very active hurricane season.
34

From august update Dr Grey

[clfenwi]

Caribbean folks may recall that they started doing a Caribbean only forecast as well. The forecast ACE is down to 41 but still well above the 1949-2008 post July 31 norm of 13. 58 was the value forecast in June.

[KWT]

So they have totally ignored the TUTT/ULL issue that has been occuring and the fact the Azores High has been pretty potent this summer...

I'd be amazed if we end up with 5MH...the pattern we have right now needs to do a 180 in the W.atlantic if we are to go above 3MH. Got plenty of time for things to shift though to be fair.

As for NS...could still get 18NS. 1969 had just 1NS at this moment and ended up at pretty much exactly the same as the numbers predicted....so we need to see what happens in the next 10-15 days....thats the timeframe I think things will increasingly get going.

Will have a proper read of the forecast tonight I think.

[hurricaneCW]

So they have totally ignored the TUTT/ULL issue that has been occuring and the fact the Azores High has been pretty potent this summer...

I'd be amazed if we end up with 5MH...the pattern we have right now needs to do a 180 in the W.atlantic if we are to go above 3MH. Got plenty of time for things to shift though to be fair.

As for NS...could still get 18NS. 1969 had just 1NS at this moment and ended up at pretty much exactly the same as the numbers predicted....so we need to see what happens in the next 10-15 days....thats the timeframe I think things will increasingly get going.

Will have a proper read of the forecast tonight I think.

I think we could get 5 majors, but they would generally exist in the Caribbean where the pressure and wind shear is the lowest (identical to 2007). I think the U.S. could be pretty safe from storms. Any eastern Atlantic storms that head north of the Caribbean will get destroyed by the TUTT or get deflected out to sea. Any storms that enter the Caribbean will generally head westward into Central America or Mexico. The only time I could see that change would be in mid October and November where the trough become very strong and are able to pull Caribbean storms further north.

[Gustywind]

Not worth saying if he will raise his #'s. He updates on 8/4. I think he'll drop 1-2 names. Mainly because of a strong La Nina forming. I still think it will be a very active season. We are just starting the upward part of the Bell curve.

Off topic just a funny remark : i think that you have make a mistake with untrained eyes it's GRAY not GREY as you have mentionned it in your title.
Gustywind

[tolakram]

What's interesting from reading the report and looking art the charts:

Looks to me like throwing out 2005 would present a 14 storm season, not 18.

My amateur brain is wondering why no emphasis is placed on the speed of transition from Nino to Nina. It seems to me a rapid transition might shake up the atmosphere a bit. Well, let me rephrase this. Nino is an indicator of what's going on in the atmosphere. The rapid transition indicates rapid upper air changes, which may need to be taken into account when forecasting a season.

[Stormcenter]

You got to give him credit for sticking to his numbers but in the past we all know they usually don't pan out one way or another. He's usually too high or too low with his predictions. I'm sure activity will pick up in the coming weeks but really who cares if we have 15 more minimal hurricanes or less named storms as long as they are not the major ones. I'll take 30 Bonnie type storms any day. It's all about quality and not quantity.

[HURAKAN]

15 more storms is doable to get to 18. For example, 3 more in August, 6 in September, 5 in October, and 1 in November.

I think the season will be active in the late months.

[KWT]

What's interesting from reading the report and looking art the charts:

Looks to me like throwing out 2005 would present a 14 storm season, not 18.

My amateur brain is wondering why no emphasis is placed on the speed of transition from Nino to Nina. It seems to me a rapid transition might shake up the atmosphere a bit. Well, let me rephrase this. Nino is an indicator of what's going on in the atmosphere. The rapid transition indicates rapid upper air changes, which may need to be taken into account when forecasting a season.

I'm not so sure its the speed, but rather the strength thats the key. The biggest moderate La Nina season was 2007 with 15NS and most were decently lower then that.

hurricaneCW, typically La Ninas do have a big storm or two in the Caribbean but the key will be for the upper trough to get replaced from the E.coast, because at the moment anything that develops before 50-60W will get lifted out either into the islands or into the TUTT and weaken before they have a chance. IF we can replace that upper troughing with some sort of ridging as well saw in June through to say the 25th July then for sure, things could well become interesting.

[hurricaneCW]

The east coast gets an upper trough and it's still in the 90s up here. That's not much of a trough to me. I think it could easily get replaced a week from now. I'm assuming that everything is lagging behind by a few weeks so early August is like mid July. Late August and September is where most of the action will likely be.

[StormClouds63]

They are the experts ... but I don't think the numbers being predicted will be reached. Maybe they are seeing something different when looking at a current WV image of the Atlantic Basin.