TSR Update: Lower Numbers

[Macrocane]

July forecast:
19.2/10.4/4.8
ACE:203

August Update:
17.8/9.7/4.5
ACE:183

Not a big change actually but the numbers are lower and they are very similar to CSU forecast, here is the link:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[cycloneye]

Their predictors are only two, the weaker trade winds and the very warm ssts. It looks like the experts have not been caught in the upper lows thing and are sticking to their June forecasts. Tommorow will be NOAA'S turn.

[hurricaneCW]

They should have decreased them to 15/7/2. I don't see anything higher. Nothing should develop this week and models don't really show anything up to mid month. Colin is the only system that may redevelop. 92L will sink into Central America/Yucatan. Perhaps something can get going from that strong convective complex/wave in the Eastern Atlantic. Even so, that would take several days to organize because it's linked to the ITCZ and the SAL is pretty strong. Wind Shear is also on the higher side.

The TUTT from hell is unlikely to go anywhere, and any storm that dares to encounter it will look like Colin does now. I think the only 2 major will be in the Caribbean as well as most hurricanes. We'll probably see several more storms like Bonnie and Colin in the next couple of months, but if even 2009 had Bill and Fred, than this season should see a few stronger storms to.

[Bocadude85]

They should have decreased them to 15/7/2. I don't see anything higher. Nothing should develop this week and models don't really show anything up to mid month. Colin is the only system that may redevelop. 92L will sink into Central America/Yucatan. Perhaps something can get going from that strong convective complex/wave in the Eastern Atlantic. Even so, that would take several days to organize because it's linked to the ITCZ and the SAL is pretty strong. Wind Shear is also on the higher side.

The TUTT from hell is unlikely to go anywhere, and any storm that dares to encounter it will look like Colin does now. I think the only 2 major will be in the Caribbean as well as most hurricanes. We'll probably see several more storms like Bonnie and Colin in the next couple of months, but if even 2009 had Bill and Fred, than this season should see a few stronger storms to.

You do realize its August 4th right? And that when we have a moderate to storng La Nina that the seasons tend to be active in October and to a lesser extent November? Also I would be very surprised to see only 2 major hurricanes... Alex was almost a major hurricane in the beginning of July.

[KWT]

Their predictors are only two, the weaker trade winds and the very warm ssts. It looks like the experts have not been caught in the upper lows thing and are sticking to their June forecasts. Tommorow will be NOAA'S turn.

We'll see a much reduced forecast this time in terms of the upper end, probably range now between 13-18.

Anyway those numbers could still verify, I think they are probably a little too high now we are in a solid moderate La Nina but you'd only need a couple of storms in the next 2 weeks and we'd be back to about 2008 levels at least in terms of NS, and thats quite possible still.

FWIW I bet we have the D storm in the next 7 days....we'll see though!

[thetruesms]

So, we have a complaints about their numbers for reasons that have nothing to do with the predictors used in their scheme, which is discussed in the previous post :sigh:

[Steve]

>>It looks like the experts have not been caught in the upper lows thing and are sticking to their June forecasts...

KWT, you're a Top 10 poster on this site, so this clearly isn't directed to you.

Obviously because the presence of all those upper level lows is often a sign that it will be a much-above average year. Additionally, the fact that they move east to west and then peel off NW, W, SW, etc. on the Western Gulf Coast is a sign of a Western Storm Track year. We've seen this too many years now. It really doesn't make one bit of difference to anyone's life if there are 19 or 16 named storms when we know that both numbers are way above normal. Maybe if the 3 that didn't form ended up not being Katrina, Ivan, Betsy or Andrew it makes a difference. But since those storms didn't form, it doesn't matter anyway. It's kind of aggravating to me, as a reader on the forums, to see people dogging the experts 15 or 20 times a week. I mean seriously, they might be wrong. But as of August 4, 2010, we're probably ahead of a lot of seasons already with 3 named storms and a depression and 90 days to go (not to mention the possibility of a late October, early November Central American threat {ref. some of the analog years}).

As for the TUTT's out there, what are they doing? Splitting and filling in. They're not semi-permanent features as are often seen in El Nino years. They're mostly splitting which is usually a sign of a neutral or La Nina season.

It's early August. The season isn't quite ripe yet. Things are aligning. People need to chill out and stop acting like they are in Freud's anal stage where they need immediate gratification. Hint: Watch. Be patient. Allow the season to flow. And come back in November and asses what you saw and what happened. Was it a heavy SAL year? Was the La Nina too strong? Did High Pressure in the Atlantic fade too early or late? What was up with the NAO, THC , SOI, etc. Seriously. The indicators are aligned for what is setting up to be the 4th season of the last 6 (04, 05, 08, 10?) that features more than just a couple of US landfalls and probably somewhere approaching hyperactive numbers. If the indicators (again, talking MSLP, SSTA's, THC, ENSO, etc.) were wrong, there will be a scientific reason - not because someone says so.

Thanks.

[Macrocane]

You quoted cycloneye who is also a top 10 poster

I would like to know why do those ULL are a sign of a very active season? I've never heard that before. I agree that we're still in the first days of August so most of the activity has not happened yet and a 18 or 17 storms forecast may still verify well.

[Steve]

>>I would like to know why do those ULL are a sign of a very active season? I've never heard that before. I agree that we're still in the first days of August so most of the activity has not happened yet and a 18 or 17 storms forecast may still verify well.

Yeah, Cyclone was always one of the best posters. For sure.

The point about concentric ULL's that migrate west early in the season being predictive of active landfalling US seasons (often also correlating to seasons with above-average # of named storms, and curiously sometimes overall weaker systems), that's something Joe B. taught me over the years. FWIW, he mentioned it again for this season.

There are a couple of things to consider. First, concentric ull's are more what you see in the Atlantic during La Nina (and occasionally neutral) phases which are obviously phases that generally have more named storms. Next consider that it's relatively early in the hurricane season. The migration and behavior of these ULL's is giving us clues about the general flow to come but more importantly about the pattern evolution of summer. Both factors are hinting at multiple storms forming west of 65-70 - something which has already been demonstrated.

If you're interested, I'd recommend that you try to find some long water vapor loops and match each period you find up to the ENSO phase and whatever other strong indicators there were from that time-frame. Every season is different but you'll see identifiable similarities repeat.

[Macrocane]

Thank you, that's very interesting.

[KWT]

[quote="Steve" (not to mention the possibility of a late October, early November Central American threat {ref. some of the analog years}).
Thanks.[/quote]

Yeah thats something I'm really alert about this year, if you look at La Nina seasons nearly every one of them have something either ramping up or developing in the Caribbean from the 20th September, quite often they are potent as well

1950: King
1954: Hazel
1955: Janet and Katie
1964: Hilda and Isbell
1971: Irene
1973: Gilda
1988: Joan
1998: Mitch
1999: Lenny
2007: Noel

Of course if you were to extend that to storms in the Caribbean in La Nina years from 15th August and you get a truely amazing list....

[Steve]

Hey no problem Macrocane. Obviously that was at a very basic description. And since every season is different, there are no 100% guarantees. But the more you watch the tropics, the more you will note certain behaviors. Not every El Nino year features large, King TUTT's in the Western Atlantic just as not every La Nina year has a bunch of concentric lows floating around the basin over large surface highs or around large upper highs. Some have both (e.g. early 2010). Also the behaviors of the upper lows are often influenced by the ENSO phase as well as the mean trough position in continental North America. What I see in most La Nina years is that upper lows and troughs will "split". This is where the base of a trough bends (usually to the SW) and breaks off as a piece of energy. This can happen anywhere from near the East Coast to the SW US or Mexico even all the way into the EPAC. In El Nino years, the tendency is that troughs crossing the northern US tend to be more progressive and stay in tact. Sometimes they will just sweep through on their way across the ocean. This is more pronounced in the US SE in winter time when you actually get fronts moving through and sweeping out on their way. Sometimes they're negatively or positively tilted but they have less propensity to split. Again, I'm not a met or anything, it's just something I've observed over the years. And it gets a little more complicated in neutral seasons where you'll tend to get a mix of both types of troughs. The more water vapor loops you watch, the more you can identify some of the patterns and what's going on.

[SFLcane]

Lower numbers? If CSU,TSR, and NOAA are correct with there seasonal predictions a very active 2-3 months are waiting. Again numbers predicting in any given season are not important as its the ones that hit land that have the greatest impact.