Upcoming week - August 9-15

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

Not a good week, mostly in predicting the life of Colin. What was I thinking, that Colin would become a hurricane? It also moved significantly faster than forecast early on, and was already to Bermuda by week's end! Oof....

But looking a little beyond, there are a couple of silver linings. On the one hand, I was spot-on for development of the tropical depression, and very close to it becoming Colin, at least initially. Yet, the fact that it degenerated so quickly makes me wonder if a post-review on the Tropical Cyclone Report will have no tropical storm intensity for that section. This has happened before, with Tropical Storm Chantal in 2001.

However, I did also predict no other developments during the week, and that was predicted rather accurately.

But given how badly I blew my forecast for Colin, I have no choice but to give myself a big, fat F for the week.

Let's see if I can do any better this week - and one area is going to be more difficult than normal for me. But then, so will soon-to-come weeks, so here goes!

Current situation and models

Colin has dissipated and models do not re-develop the system. However, two other areas bear watching for development. Invest 93L originated a few days ago and has been slow to develop out the Atlantic, but is getting better organized. Models generally agree that it will stay weak and be a “fish” storm. But more interesting, Invest 94L is also a recent development off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Models don’t do much with this system until it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the GFDL in particular likes this to become a hurricane. This actually isn’t an implausible scenario, as Hurricane Alicia pulled off a similar feat in 1983 – though the model has initialized this disturbance poorly, thinking it is already a tropical storm. Most other models also take it further east, to Louisiana or points even east of there, versus the GFDL which takes it to Texas.

Recent history

Since 1995, the following storms have developed during this upcoming week:

Gabrielle in 1995
Beryl in 2000
Erika in 2003
Bonnie in 2004
Charley in 2004
Danielle in 2004
Earl in 2004
Dean in 2007
Fay in 2008
Ana in 2009
Bill in 2009

That’s 11 storms this upcoming week. Of these 11, only one came from a frontal low: Erika. It did, however, develop in the Gulf of Mexico, and went on to briefly become a minimal hurricane as it made landfall. Of the remaining ten tropical waves, three formed in the Gulf of Mexico (Gabrielle, Beryl, and Bonnie), two formed in the Caribbean (Charley and Fay), and five developed in the Main Development Region (Danielle, Earl, Dean, Ana, and Bill). Additionally, of these ten, four became hurricanes: Charley, Danielle, Dean, and Bill. And although Dean and Bill became hurricanes after the week was up, the point is that this is a very ideal time to be tracking longer-lasting, more intense storms. Gabrielle in 1995, as a result of a slow, stalling, erratic motion, also nearly became a hurricane before making landfall in Mexico.

No storms developed very far to the north over the open Atlantic since in 1995 in this upcoming week.

Additionally, there were three storms previously intact:

Felix in 1995
Alberto in 2000
Irene in 2005

All three of these were in similar locations. Felix and Alberto went on to become quite powerful hurricanes this upcoming week. Irene, however, continued to struggle –but did begin to get its act together later in the week, becoming nearly a hurricane by week’s end. All of these also moved on general northwestward tracks north of the Leeward Islands as they grew stronger, with Alberto even already beginning to recurve at the end of the week.

So what does this all tell us?

It gets more likely for storms to get going off the coast of Africa or at least between there and the Lesser Antilles. It is more likely though if the disturbance is south of 20 degrees north, which Invest 93L is not. Storms in the Gulf of Mexico also usually intensify, but often fall short of hurricane intensity. Ironically, the only storm since 1995 to pull off that feat came from a frontal low (Erika), much like Invest 94L. But can 94L be as well-formed as Erika was when it first developed, and can it last a full 48 hours like Erika did? A good segue into the next section…

Back to looking ahead

I’m actually going to divide this into four sections: for Colin, 93L, 94L, and anything else.

Colin
Colin will not re-develop. It is too disorganized, too far north, not enough of a fighter, and is getting no model support.

I predict Colin’s remnant to die quickly over the North Atlantic without re-development. Confidence is near 100%

93L
Historically, the odds are against Invest 93L for doing anything significant. However, models have been developing this disturbance for days, even though it has done nothing but slowly organize. The NHC is believing in this area as it heads northwest, and as long as they do, I have to think this may develop. I don’t think it gets very strong though, due to a combination of similar conditions that Colin went through and the fact that is very far to the north for a storm trying to intensify in this part of the world.

I predict Invest 93L will form into a tropical depression in the late afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday, it will become Tropical Storm Danielle. It will move northwest and then north, staying well east of Bermuda, and never pose a threat to land. By Friday it will become extratropical after having gathered maximum sustained winds of no higher than 50 mph. Confidence is 85%

94L
This is by far the toughest to predict for this upcoming week. On the one hand, it is very difficult for a frontal low to develop into a tropical cyclone during this period. But the only one that did, formed in a similar location to where this very well could land: the Gulf of Mexico. There is also a lot of model support for at least something coming out of this besides just a rain event for Florida, so I have to look at it further. Though I think the GFDL scenario is extremely bullish, I could foresee at least a small tropical storm coming out of this. SHIPS only sees marginally favorable conditions, and coupled with a combination of a lot of land interaction, does not even predict that after decay is involved. That said, intensity is still very difficult to predict, and the Gulf of Mexico does see storms at least give it their all historically. 94L probably will not reach there until Wednesday, and while disorganized now, could ramp up quickly into a cyclone there, but beyond that is a crapshoot. My best guess is:

I predict Invest 94L to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. By that evening, it will become a tropical depression, and Tropical Storm Earl the next morning. Landfall will then occur rather quickly that same day, most likely in eastern Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of about 40-45 mph. Earl will then rain itself out over the South over the next couple days producing some flooding in the area. Confidence is 50%.

Elsewhere
Other than these three systems, I would not be surprised to see the African wave train kick up and produce another Invest or two later in the week. However, conditions are not all the way there yet, as Colin and 93L have and are proving, and I am just not seeing enough model support yet to call for further development of anything until next week.

I predict no further developments besides those of Invests 93L and 94L. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[ConvergenceZone]

Nice well thought out forecast. I enjoy reading your contributions.

[LaBreeze]

Evaluating last week

Not a good week, mostly in predicting the life of Colin. What was I thinking, that Colin would become a hurricane? It also moved significantly faster than forecast early on, and was already to Bermuda by week's end! Oof....

But looking a little beyond, there are a couple of silver linings. On the one hand, I was spot-on for development of the tropical depression, and very close to it becoming Colin, at least initially. Yet, the fact that it degenerated so quickly makes me wonder if a post-review on the Tropical Cyclone Report will have no tropical storm intensity for that section. This has happened before, with Tropical Storm Chantal in 2001.

However, I did also predict no other developments during the week, and that was predicted rather accurately.

But given how badly I blew my forecast for Colin, I have no choice but to give myself a big, fat F for the week.

Let's see if I can do any better this week - and one area is going to be more difficult than normal for me. But then, so will soon-to-come weeks, so here goes!

Current situation and models

Colin has dissipated and models do not re-develop the system. However, two other areas bear watching for development. Invest 93L originated a few days ago and has been slow to develop out the Atlantic, but is getting better organized. Models generally agree that it will stay weak and be a “fish” storm. But more interesting, Invest 94L is also a recent development off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Models don’t do much with this system until it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the GFDL in particular likes this to become a hurricane. This actually isn’t an implausible scenario, as Hurricane Alicia pulled off a similar feat in 1983 – though the model has initialized this disturbance poorly, thinking it is already a tropical storm. Most other models also take it further east, to Louisiana or points even east of there, versus the GFDL which takes it to Texas.

Recent history

Since 1995, the following storms have developed during this upcoming week:

Gabrielle in 1995
Beryl in 2000
Erika in 2003
Bonnie in 2004
Charley in 2004
Danielle in 2004
Earl in 2004
Dean in 2007
Fay in 2008
Ana in 2009
Bill in 2009

That’s 11 storms this upcoming week. Of these 11, only one came from a frontal low: Erika. It did, however, develop in the Gulf of Mexico, and went on to briefly become a minimal hurricane as it made landfall. Of the remaining ten tropical waves, three formed in the Gulf of Mexico (Gabrielle, Beryl, and Bonnie), two formed in the Caribbean (Charley and Fay), and five developed in the Main Development Region (Danielle, Earl, Dean, Ana, and Bill). Additionally, of these ten, four became hurricanes: Charley, Danielle, Dean, and Bill. And although Dean and Bill became hurricanes after the week was up, the point is that this is a very ideal time to be tracking longer-lasting, more intense storms. Gabrielle in 1995, as a result of a slow, stalling, erratic motion, also nearly became a hurricane before making landfall in Mexico.

No storms developed very far to the north over the open Atlantic since in 1995 in this upcoming week.

Additionally, there were three storms previously intact:

Felix in 1995
Alberto in 2000
Irene in 2005

All three of these were in similar locations. Felix and Alberto went on to become quite powerful hurricanes this upcoming week. Irene, however, continued to struggle –but did begin to get its act together later in the week, becoming nearly a hurricane by week’s end. All of these also moved on general northwestward tracks north of the Leeward Islands as they grew stronger, with Alberto even already beginning to recurve at the end of the week.

So what does this all tell us?

It gets more likely for storms to get going off the coast of Africa or at least between there and the Lesser Antilles. It is more likely though if the disturbance is south of 20 degrees north, which Invest 93L is not. Storms in the Gulf of Mexico also usually intensify, but often fall short of hurricane intensity. Ironically, the only storm since 1995 to pull off that feat came from a frontal low (Erika), much like Invest 94L. But can 94L be as well-formed as Erika was when it first developed, and can it last a full 48 hours like Erika did? A good segue into the next section…

Back to looking ahead

I’m actually going to divide this into four sections: for Colin, 93L, 94L, and anything else.

Colin
Colin will not re-develop. It is too disorganized, too far north, not enough of a fighter, and is getting no model support.

I predict Colin’s remnant to die quickly over the North Atlantic without re-development. Confidence is near 100%

93L
Historically, the odds are against Invest 93L for doing anything significant. However, models have been developing this disturbance for days, even though it has done nothing but slowly organize. The NHC is believing in this area as it heads northwest, and as long as they do, I have to think this may develop. I don’t think it gets very strong though, due to a combination of similar conditions that Colin went through and the fact that is very far to the north for a storm trying to intensify in this part of the world.

I predict Invest 93L will form into a tropical depression in the late afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday, it will become Tropical Storm Danielle. It will move northwest and then north, staying well east of Bermuda, and never pose a threat to land. By Friday it will become extratropical after having gathered maximum sustained winds of no higher than 50 mph. Confidence is 85%

94L
This is by far the toughest to predict for this upcoming week. On the one hand, it is very difficult for a frontal low to develop into a tropical cyclone during this period. But the only one that did, formed in a similar location to where this very well could land: the Gulf of Mexico. There is also a lot of model support for at least something coming out of this besides just a rain event for Florida, so I have to look at it further. Though I think the GFDL scenario is extremely bullish, I could foresee at least a small tropical storm coming out of this. SHIPS only sees marginally favorable conditions, and coupled with a combination of a lot of land interaction, does not even predict that after decay is involved. That said, intensity is still very difficult to predict, and the Gulf of Mexico does see storms at least give it their all historically. 94L probably will not reach there until Wednesday, and while disorganized now, could ramp up quickly into a cyclone there, but beyond that is a crapshoot. My best guess is:

I predict Invest 94L to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. By that evening, it will become a tropical depression, and Tropical Storm Earl the next morning. Landfall will then occur rather quickly that same day, most likely in eastern Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of about 40-45 mph. Earl will then rain itself out over the South over the next couple days producing some flooding in the area. Confidence is 50%.

Elsewhere
Other than these three systems, I would not be surprised to see the African wave train kick up and produce another Invest or two later in the week. However, conditions are not all the way there yet, as Colin and 93L have and are proving, and I am just not seeing enough model support yet to call for further development of anything until next week.

I predict no further developments besides those of Invests 93L and 94L. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

How far west do you see those rains getting and by what date?

[Andrew92]

Weatherfreak000:
Good points. I actually am trying to work a litte on my sentence structure. I use Word a lot before posting which helps a little, but it is still a struggle of mine. Second, I know I look at what Pro Mets are saying, but that's so I can get a concensus for how I should make my weekly prediction. That said, you are correct and I shouldn't use what they say too much, as anyone can be proven wrong. I also was fairly bold in my inensity forecast fo Colin last week, albeit it was way off, but the possibility was there if conditions weren't so unfavorable and had Colin not sped up so quickly. Remember, last week I had Alberto in 2000 as an analog for Colin. It just turned out to be the wrong one; Irene would have been a better choice.

In short, my prediction is based off of partly what models and other professionals are saying, and also partly what history tells us.

LaBreeze:
I guess I should have elaborated this further! I think 94L, probably Earl to come (assuming 93L develops as anticipated), will remain small so rains will be confined a little. I think Louisiana will see the heaviest rains, but eastern Texas will start to see rains probably on Friday or so. After that, I think the moisture will begin to die out and also retreat northward toward the Midwest.

-Andrew92

[JonathanBelles]

Personally, I very much enjoy reading your posts, and they are very easy reading. I think that the length of the discussion is perfect. I typically do not rely on analog forecasting for numerous reasons, but your discussions provide a source to easily see what has happened and what could happen each week. I personally do not see a whole lot of repetition of other forecasts, and what you do repeat usually either has to be repeated or is said in such a way that is interesting to the readers. Good job!!

[Macrocane]

A very interesting forecast as always, I think they're very easy too read too. A complex week is about to begin let's enjoy it.

[Andrew92]

It doesn't look like anything significant is going to happen tonight outside of the remnants of TD #5 emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, so let's evaluate this past week.

Very quickly though, before I do, want to thank you guys for the great comments on these weekly "forecasts" that I do! It is greatly appreciated and shows that we are all learning something, including me. A huge thanks to LaBreeze, who posed a question I should have addressed in my official prediction: the exact location and time of the rainfall threat for 94L, just before it became TD #5.

Also, some have said that I am very hard on myself on the evaluations. That perhaps is the case with Colin, though I still hold I blew that one bad. However, I think with this evaluation, I am learning to calm down and show that a few flaws does not a bad forecast make, especially when it is otherwise very good.

Now, onto the evaluation:

The previous week was a badly blown one, in which I hoped this past week would see marked improvement. Fortunately, that was the case! Since I divided the prediction into four facets, I’ll do the same here.

Colin:
Easy forecast, it dissipated fast. Grade here is an A, albeit with very little weight.

93L:
Well, the forecast for a fish certainly was accurate. The intensity was another matter. I predicted a tropical storm and that never came to be. History does suggest it is simply too hard for storms to develop that far north, that far east this time of year. Models, however, pretty much all indicated further development. That’s pretty hard to go against, especially when the NHC agrees. I did also think that it would stay weak, which it obviously did. But given that these models were wrong, but I stayed with the average, that should be my grade here. Last I checked, an “average” grade is often a C.

94L:
This was a very challenging forecast – indicated in my 50% confidence. I predicted a tropical depression on Wednesday. Well, it came late Tuesday, but still not far off. I predicted a 40-45 mph tropical storm before a landfall on Thursday in eastern Louisiana. It never even met those low expectations. However, even though it was a remnant low, the idea of a landfall on Thursday in eastern Louisiana was still dead-on, as that is essentially what happened – it just won’t be recorded in history. After LaBreeze asked a question about how far inland it would get, I responded possibly into Texas. Well, that didn’t happen as it moved north earlier than I thought, but the rainfall threat certainly materialized. Overall, a very tough forecast, but numerous models did not do as good of a job as I did. *cough*GFDL*cough* I also was correct to use the SHIPS as the best possible match, though as I’ve alluded already, I went stronger than it and was wrong. While not a great forecast, this was still very decent all things considered. I give myself a B here.

Elsewhere:
I predicted nothing else to develop and that’s exactly what happened. Grade A here.

Overall:
My not-so-great 93L forecast and my correct predictions of no further development besides it and 94L can probably cancel each other out. It’s just as well, as the main meat should be on what could have been a big story – 94L. I’ve already talked about that forecast and the decent but not great job I did on it, so I’ll wrap up by giving myself an overall grade of a B for the week.


Next week coming up in just a moment!

-Andrew92