The tropics right now remind me of a race car running on 7 cylinders....something's missing -- I just can't figure out what.
The Atlantic Basin SST are as warm as I've ever seen them....now +1-2° C in the Cape Verde breeding grounds, and 99.99% of the Atlantic, Caribbean, and GOM is at/ above normal.
There is NO el nino influence to weaken budding Atlantic systems....as evidenced by the lack of hurricanes in the EPAC -- which SHOULD signal a coupld very intense hurricanes in the Atlantic this season (weak EPAC storms = intense Atlantic hurricanes)....but so far there's been nothing stronger than the 90-95 mph Claudette.
My instincts tell me that's going to change....but the question is when. I thought it was about to occur now; but apparently I was incorrect.
If this wave over Hispanola doesn't develop into a major hurricane...and I now rate the chance of it happening now at < 10%...I'm going to eat major league crow...almost as bad as my "Debby" fiasco in 2000.
PW