Possible development next week near the Bahamas...

[Vortex]

I’m becoming increasingly interested in possible developments off the SE Coast/Fl next week. The pattern is a classic one. Heights will build this weekend along the East coast/SW Atlantic. Ridging will be well entrenched across the East coast/SW Atlantic by next week. An old boundary to the south will extend from the SW Atlantic and back over the Bahamas and Southern FL. This has the makings of classic home grown brew. I think we’ll get a spin up near the Bahamas. With ridging in place to the north it would likely remain quasi-stationary then head west across FL and into the Gulf or await for a short wave to kick it N then NE…Models are beginning to depict the moisture/instability in place as well as the pattern. I think with later runs well see low pressure forming in this region

[flwxwatcher]

I’m becoming increasingly interested in possible developments off the SE Coast/Fl next week. The pattern is a classic one. Heights will build this weekend along the East coast/SW Atlantic. Ridging will be well entrenched across the East coast/SW Atlantic by next week. An old boundary to the south will extend from the SW Atlantic and back over the Bahamas and Southern FL. This has the makings of classic home grown brew. I think we’ll get a spin up near the Bahamas. With ridging in place to the north it would likely remain quasi-stationary then head west across FL and into the Gulf or await for a short wave to kick it N then NE…Models are beginning to depict the moisture/instability in place as well as the pattern. I think with later runs well see low pressure forming in this region

You beat me to it.. I agree.. while late this week it looks like the Western Gulf might pop something. I am also looking in the area East of Florida/ Bahamas for maybe another home brew chance underneath the ridge that will be setting up. I am interested to see what some of the Pro mets think about the chances for this to happen in this set-up.

[WX5DBZ]

It is something that we have noticed and are watching. Haven't been able to look at it much ATTM with other activity, but will get to it tomorrow hopefully.

[Vortex]

6Z Nam indicating low pressure developing this weekend north of the bahamas.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[thetruesms]

6Z Nam indicating low pressure developing this weekend north of the bahamas.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

6Z GFS also creates a (very) weak low, but never deep enough to close an isobar - only shows up in winds

[flwxwatcher]

The DGEX shows this crossing North Florida and into the Gulf.. Interesting to see if this does indeed pan out.


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

[flwxwatcher]

Still not getting much love from the models outside the NAM for something to pop East of Florida but I did read J.B. says this area needs to be watched over the week-end!!.

[somethingfunny]

Someone just told me that the remnant of TD#5 is still hanging around in the Southeast.

A) is that true?
and
B) is it expected to contribute to next week's possible system?

[flwxwatcher]

I know right now all the focus is on Earl but once again I am thinking things are looking interesting for some Home brew development around the Bahamas / SW Atlantic area next week. Nothing came from the last setup that I thought might form some home brew . Let's see if the second time is the one.. I also saw this tidbit from J.B. tonight saying that that area is something to watch next week.

I am still wondering if Fiona gets out. What appears to happen is the low level system leaves, and the upper feature stays behind. But look, something should be in the southwest atlantic or gulf by NEXT weekend just looking at this pattern. .