EPAC seasons statistics - 6 named storms before September 1s

[Hurricanehink]

While everyone is focusing on the Atlantic season, with one hurricane threatening land and another system behind it, I thought I'd look at the National Hurricane Center's other basin. The EPAC has most of their activity in July and August. Their July had no named storms, for the first time since 1966, and August only has had 2 storms, with no storms on the horizon.

Right now, 2010 activity has 6 tropical storms, with 3 hurricanes and 2 majors.

Since 1995 (start of the active era in the Atlantic and inactive era in the Pacific), here is the number of tropical storms by September 1st (with their overall activity in parenthesis).

Note: the numbers include CPAC activity.

1995 - 7 (3/7/10)
1996 - 5 (9/5/2)
1997 - 11 (19/11/9)
1998 - 8 (13/9/6)
1999 - 6 (9/6/2)
2000 - 13 (19/6/2)
2001 - 6 (15/8/2)
2002 - 10 (15/8/6)
2003 - 10 (16/7/0)
2004 - 8 (12/6/3)
2005 - 9 (15/7/2)
2006 - 12 (19/11/6)
2007 - 8 (11/4/1)
2008 - 11 (17/7/2)
2009 - 12 (18/7/4)

Right now, the only seasons with as few of storms as 2010 are 1996, 1999, and 2001. Of note, 2001 had an early C4 storm, but unlike 2010 had a nearly stormless August (just 1 storm). Most of the storms from both seasons (sans 2001's 2nd storm Barbara) formed close to Mexico. 2001 and 2010 also both had 3 hurricanes by this point, but for what it's worth, the Atlantic had no hurricanes by this point. Ultimately, 2001 had average EPAC numbers, and was above average in the Atlantic.

1999 had 4 hurricanes by this point including 2 major hurricanes. One, Dora, was a long-tracking hurricane that even reached the western Pacific. One hurricane, Eugene, tracked into the Central Pacific as a hurricane. In 2010, there have been no tropical cyclones in the CPAC. Ultimately, 1999 was very below average, with little activity after September 1, and although Atlantic had an average number of storms (12), its ACE was very high with four Category 4 hurricanes.

Lastly, 1996 had 5 storms by this point, of which one was unnamed (upgraded operationally). The 6th TS didn't form until tomorrow. There were three hurricanes, one a major, and most of the activity all season long was near the Mexican coast. Of note: no tropical storms formed in August 1996. The Atlantic had early activity (a June major hurricane), and toward the end of August there was a major hurricane trekking out to sea, while another followed quickly behind it and threatened the Caribbean and SE US. Sound familiar?

While no seasons are exact parallels to another, there are some trends that are noteworthy. There were very few seasons that had as few tropical storms by September 1st as this has. Two ended up being significantly below normal, with 9 storms each - the EPAC average is 15.3. One ended up being near average.

The jury is still out, but this is just some food for thought while we're all focusing so intently on the Atlantic.

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Good luck to all in harm's way this season.