PGI41L. Coming off African coast (Now Invest 91L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

PGI41L. Coming off African coast (Now Invest 91L)

#1 Postby ColinDelia » Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:06 am

Not sure which wave this is but noticed it on GFS

Sep 7th. Near coast
Image
Last edited by ColinDelia on Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:44 am, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: Wave over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#2 Postby ColinDelia » Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:31 am

300 hours. 25 W. I'll come back when this starts making sense ;-)

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#3 Postby fci » Wed Sep 01, 2010 9:32 am

I see the wave behind TD9 hitting the water and looking pretty good too.
Is this the one you are referring to?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re:

#4 Postby ColinDelia » Wed Sep 01, 2010 9:41 am

fci wrote:I see the wave behind TD9 hitting the water and looking pretty good too.
Is this the one you are referring to?


No, this is a different one.

The wave hitting the water is PGI 39L here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: Re:

#5 Postby fci » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:09 am

ColinDelia wrote:
fci wrote:I see the wave behind TD9 hitting the water and looking pretty good too.
Is this the one you are referring to?


No, this is a different one.

The wave hitting the water is PGI 39L here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#


Thanks, the new numbering system is a mystery to me :double:
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Wave over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#6 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:59 am

Maybe there's enough time for the recurve pattern to break and one of those African waves to hit the positive MJO coming up in September and track towards the US.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: Wave over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#7 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Sep 03, 2010 5:46 pm

18z GFS
This is the Sep 7th wave around 28 w on Sep 12th

Image
0 likes   
Top
Migle
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 203
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:30 pm
Location: New Orleans

Re: Wave over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#8 Postby Migle » Fri Sep 03, 2010 10:43 pm

Looks like another fish. Going to a couple of days before this one even leaves Africa.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: Wave over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#9 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Sep 04, 2010 5:32 am

6z GFS. 96 hours.
Image

Kinda confusing but maybe it is PGI40L?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22980
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Wave over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#10 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:40 am

CV storms developing this year are much less likely to reach the U.S. than in other years. The reason is a persistent negative NAO and a resulting weaker Bermuda High. Once the CV storms stop developing, the development will shift west into the Caribbean, Gulf and off the SE U.S. coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: 41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#11 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:28 am

12z GFS.

72 hours. On Coast.
Image

120 hours. SW of Cape Verde. 1002 mb
Image

168 hours. Approaching 40W. 999 mb
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: PGI41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#12 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:41 am

228 hours. Passing 50W. 989 mb
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: PGI41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#13 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:44 am

252 hours. Missing Islands
Image

348 hours
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: PGI41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#14 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Sep 05, 2010 5:06 am

The vorticity at 10W
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: PGI41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#15 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Sep 05, 2010 5:07 am

6z GFS.

60 hours. Reaches coast on Tuesday
Image

78 hours.
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: PGI41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#16 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:24 am

12z GFS. 78 hours. S of Cape Verde
Image
0 likes   
Top
lonelymike
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 634
Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:12 am
Location: walton county fla

Re: PGI41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#17 Postby lonelymike » Sun Sep 05, 2010 12:31 pm

Maybe if you do the hurricane dance long enough Colin you'll get one that will get west of 70 :wink:
0 likes   


GO SEMINOLES
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: PGI41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#18 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:04 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#19 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:08 pm

So we have a spit the Euro westbound and the GFS recurature near 60W...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

Re: PGI41L. Over Africa. Should reach coast Sep 7th.

#20 Postby ColinDelia » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:21 pm

lonelymike wrote:Maybe if you do the hurricane dance long enough Colin you'll get one that will get west of 70 :wink:


I did a snowstorm dance when i was 6 and it snowed. That's how I became interested in meteorology. true story.

It doesn't work on Hurricanes though.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: GCANE and 20 guests