New England threat???

[DreamworksSKG]

Why is it that every year they keep talking about New England being over due for a major hurricane, yet every year, the storms curve out to sea constantly or weaken before they get there (Like Earl did). We were supposed to get T.S. to near hurricane winds with earl here, and didn't even get 10-20 mph sustained. The longer New England goes without a major storm, the more people will continue to stay when there's the threat of a hurricane. I am worried that if a major fast moving cat 4 or 5 storm comes up the gulf stream sometime on the right course for New England and say weakens to a 3 or 4 storm, by the time it hits, people will think oh it will curve out to sea or weaken so we'll be safe, we're stayin'. if this happens and it doesn't weaken and slams right in to Narragansett Bay For example or over Long Island, the impact could be devastating. Its been since 1999 (Floyd) that we had a potential major hurricane threat. (Luckily Floyd hit the outer banks and weakened before coming up here), but some day another LIExpress or another Bob (tho much stronger) will hit. When do you expect New England to get a major hurricane? I am wondering in my area, 8 miles North of Boston how strong the winds would be in a major cat 3 or 4 hitting moving at North at 30 mph with Boston in the right NE quadrant of the storm (Say it goes over Narragansett Bay).
what would the highest winds be for a cat 3 or 4 in this position in my area, and what would the effects be?

How can we get people to take these storms seriously if they keep missing us or weakening at the last minute. A lot of people saw Earl coming and just stayed put on the cape riding it out.
It could have been pretty bad if it had come right over the Cape at the last minute as a strong cat 2

Thanks!

[Aquawind]

How can we get people to take these storms seriously if they keep missing us or weakening at the last minute.

It's hard for the NE area..systems have found a weakeness by the time they are approaching and the further north they get the better the chance of complete recurve out to sea..furtunately they do recurve because if not they would get blasted with some serious canes regularly..

Were also fortunate the NHC does a good job forecasting these systems or they would be under watches and warnings much more often..

[somethingfunny]

The models nailed Earl's track several days out as far as the East Coast threat was concerned (miserable failure for the Leewards)....so I suspect that if a storm ever comes into an atmospheric setup which would launch a storm due north like Gloria, Bob, Carol, 1938 etc., there would be several models showing that scenario and the local mets in New England would be much more forceful with their warnings, hopefully people would take it seriously then.

[HurricaneBill]

The models nailed Earl's track several days out as far as the East Coast threat was concerned (miserable failure for the Leewards)....so I suspect that if a storm ever comes into an atmospheric setup which would launch a storm due north like Gloria, Bob, Carol, 1938 etc., there would be several models showing that scenario and the local mets in New England would be much more forceful with their warnings, hopefully people would take it seriously then.

The only problem was Gloria was hyped up as the "Storm of the Century" and although damaging, was less destructive than expected. This was mainly because Gloria struck at low tide and also was undergoing extratropical transition prior to landfall on Long Island.

Bob, on the other hand, didn't have time to be hyped up. Bob was pretty much:
August 17: Bob forms.
August 18: Bob becomes a hurricane.
August 19: He's here!

Bob also didn't begin extratropical transition until shortly before landfall. As a result, Bob only weakened gradually before landfall. A similar situation happened with Juan in 2003 when he struck Nova Scotia.

[DreamworksSKG]

So is New England threat out of the woods this year with it being almost mid-late september...?

Looks like Igor will be recurving toward Bermuda.....tho I think it might be a Newfoundland type storm....

[cpdaman]

So is New England threat out of the woods this year with it being almost mid-late september...?

Looks like Igor will be recurving toward Bermuda.....tho I think it might be a Newfoundland type storm....

who ever says New england is long over due for a major hurricane? long over due implies they historically occur more than isolated incidences.

How often has new england been hit by a major hurricane? once in 1869.....once again in 1938....and then possibly in 1954....records show carol was upper end cat 2...or low 3.

Ft. lauderdale is "long overdue" for a major hurricane to hit the area. Key west is long overdue for a Major to landfall over the area. New england ....ehh not so much from my perspective.

But igor should be worth watching.....and biggest threat is likey bermuda IMO.

but New england it takes everything to line up right (or "wrong") for such an event to occur