Second half CONUS landfalling storms

[HurrMark]

Just for fun, I was curious about the climatology of landfalling storms in US, particularly after 9/15, since it is a near-guaranteed certainty that we will not see a hurricane landfall before then. I looked at the last 50 hurricanes to directly strike (that is, no brushes) the CONUS (going back to Hurricane Babe in 1976). This is what I found:

Of the 50 hurricanes, only 16 (32%) made landfall after 9/15. This is less than one hurricane every other year.
Only 8 (16%) made landfall after 9/28 (all Gulf Coast).
Only one (Hugo) was higher than a cat 3 at landfall.
Four were FL peninsula landfalls, three were panhandle landfalls, four made landfall in other Gulf Coast states, and four made landfall north of FL.

So what does this mean? We cannot say that the US lucked out this year just yet, but the chances of a destructive hurricane making landfall (especially outside Florida) are diminishing each day. Assuming Igor, 92L and 93L make up the tropical scene for the next week or so, and none of these make landfall in the US (which seems fairly likely at this point, although not certain), then the chances will decrease even more.


Keep in mind that there have been numerous seasons in the Atlantic with high activity but little major landfall...1990, 2000 and 2001 are notable examples. Even 1995, outside Florida, was actually a very quiet year landfall-wise.

[psyclone]

this is a terrific post. Hurricane season really is defined by geography. while the aggregate risk for the US may be declining post sept 15, for my area (fl west coast) our highest risk period actually commences sept 15 and runs through october. if a cane is gonna strike this region directly, chances are it will happen during that time frame (charley was a notable, recent exception to the rule). of course wilma is a recent late season example. and the infamous 1921 tampa bay cane struck in late october. hopefully the good luck continues but i will have a wary peeled to the south for the next month and a half as i always do, especially in la nina years.

[gatorcane]

Looking at hurricane climatology for south Florida, more hurricanes have hit in October than any other month. So I agree with psyclone, the meat of our season starts in mid September and lasts through October. I have a feeling we will get something to threaten from the western Caribbean this year.