2010 now a record-breaking storm season

[HurricaneJoe22]

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-h ... rm-season/

[Macrocane]

Yeah, it's a very interesting seaon, I think we've learned a lot and we are still going to learn more in the nrxt few months.

[Ladylight]

Wow! And it looked like it was off to such a slow start. You just never know!

[jinftl]

With the extensive list of reasons as to why this was forecast to be an active season - it is comforting in a way to know that the discussions on record sst, la nina, lower than normal pressure readings, etc weren't just a bunch of 'hot air'. We may not ever be able to predict exact landfall locations in advance, but the science seems to have a pretty good handle on expectations of overall basin activity in a given season.

[Ladylight]

Very true jinftl. And it really seems to have improved dramatically during just the last 8 years that I've been watching. I would guess the faster computer processing advances have something to do with that. It makes me wonder just how much better it will be in 10 more years.

[jinftl]

That is a very good question - I think the skill at predicting overall season activity will continue to improve. Predicting what areas are at highest risk for impacts from storms before the storms have even formed will be an elusive goal....given we are still looking at 5-day errors in forecasts of over 200 miles....I just can't see how we are close to a time when we know weeks in advance who is at risk for impact, other than some generalizations like ridging may drive storms to the west vs. troughs that would appear to turn storms out to sea east of the u.s. and islands.

With all we know about plate tectonics and fault lines, we are still unable to accurately predict where and when an earthquake will strike, and how strong it will be. We may hit that kind of wall for hurricane forecasting as well - a wealth of data after the fact to explain why it happened, but limited ability to predict those impacts in advance with much detail.

Very true jinftl. And it really seems to have improved dramatically during just the last 8 years that I've been watching. I would guess the faster computer processing advances have something to do with that. It makes me wonder just how much better it will be in 10 more years.

[Ladylight]

I think forecasting a general track has improved dramatically, yeah, jinftl. The problem is any little change in ridges and troughs seems to cause either slight, or occasionally, pretty major changes in the cyclone track. We've seen sudden shifts alter the track quite dramatically at times. I suspect the major errors we sometimes see at 5 days out now, can still be improved a bit generally, and most likely will. But I don't think there will ever be a time when there is a precise mechanism to predict landfall, so I think you're right about hitting the wall. Perhaps a pro would have a different opinion though.

[WeatherGuesser]

Yet no US mainland HX landfalls (yet)

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2010.asp

[Sanibel]

Extra atmospheric energy manifests in ways not expected.