Western GOM

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Lots of heavy convection, is this leftovers from Karl?

[Steve H.]

Yes, noticed that too. Rather suspicious looking aint' it! Looks to be some kind of cyclonic motion to it as well.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like an inverted trough axis Karl. It was sort of left behind Hurricane Karl and does raise an eyebrow. Regarless, rain chances have increased along the TX Coast. It should shift slowly W and onshore tomorrow. Keep an eye on it though. We have seen just how fast something can spin up in the Western Gulf this year.

[Swimdude]

I came here today specifically to start this thread if it hadn't already been started. As strange as it would be for a storm to form in this location... That convection is extremely strong, and it popped up quite fast (in the last hour or so). Of course, this could mean it'll just weaken and/or move inland shortly, but at the same time, that's a lot of moisture out there in the Western BOC. And in the middle of September, that worries me.

[Cyclone1]

Has my attention.

[ROCK]

I am impressed...its going to be very wet around here....

[lrak]

Looks like an inverted trough axis Karl. It was sort of left behind Hurricane Karl and does raise an eyebrow. Regarless, rain chances have increased along the TX Coast. It should shift slowly W and onshore tomorrow. Keep an eye on it though. We have seen just how fast something can spin up in the Western Gulf this year.

I remember seeing this during Karl, it kept its distance from him the whole time and I wondered why it never got sucked towards Mexico.

It would be really strange for something to form right after a hurricane landfall.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Florida1118]

From Dr. Masters at Weather underground-"An area of disturbed weather off the coast of South Texas is due to an region of upper level winds that are spreading out, encouraging thunderstorm updrafts to pull more air aloft. I don't expect this region to develop due to its close proximity to the coast."

[ROCK]

yeah its been moving west and should be over land soon.....I had mentioned Karl's left overs in the model thread..a few days ago....GFS and NAM have been showing a wet scenario after Karl moved on...

[lrak]

From Dr. Masters at Weather underground-"An area of disturbed weather off the coast of South Texas is due to an region of upper level winds that are spreading out, encouraging thunderstorm updrafts to pull more air aloft. I don't expect this region to develop due to its close proximity to the coast."

The "close proximity to the coast" statement is one of those NHC's code yellow with a 0% chance

[ROCK]

From Dr. Masters at Weather underground-"An area of disturbed weather off the coast of South Texas is due to an region of upper level winds that are spreading out, encouraging thunderstorm updrafts to pull more air aloft. I don't expect this region to develop due to its close proximity to the coast."

The "close proximity to the coast" statement is one of those NHC's code yellow with a 0% chance

you better leave it alone and look at the 12Z CMC....

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[lrak]

Wow they have a graphic for this thing Florida1118. I wonder if it could become an invest?

[TexasF6]

Karl has spawn...

[Florida1118]

Wow they have a graphic for this thing Florida1118. I wonder if it could become an invest?

Should no one post the TWO anymore?

[cycloneye]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROCK]

that Low is inland north of Brownsville.....but its slinging moisture up....

[CrazyC83]

Would this be Karl again if it develops, or a new system?

[cycloneye]

Would this be Karl again if it develops, or a new system?

It would be Lisa,but is going inland so no chance.

[Sanibel]

I don't think I've ever seen convection from a hurricane branch off into another system but this one did.


Already inland however.