2010 beating major hurricanes record?

[arkestra]

Good evening,

I have been wondering if some people here think this season may tie or beat 1950's record for most major hurricanes formed? The crazy month we've seen makes me wonder.

In my opinion it's a possibility. Julia and Karl weren't expected to become major - but they did. In addition, CV storms, usually the most powerful, seem to print the trend this season. After all, the record is "only" 3 storms away.

[RL3AO]

I think it has a chance to tie it, but breaking it would be really hard.

[ospreygrad]

Good evening,

I have been wondering if some people here think this season may tie or beat 1950's record for most major hurricanes formed? The crazy month we've seen makes me wonder.

In my opinion it's a possibility. Julia and Karl weren't expected to become major - but they did. In addition, CV storms, usually the most powerful, seem to print the trend this season. After all, the record is "only" 3 storms away.

It will be close and it is plausible that we may get close to tying that mark, but I don't think we will break the record of 8 major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin that was set in 1950.

We have already had five majors this season and indeed that is impressive. I think we will have at least one more major hurricane this season, possibly very soon within the next week or so as the MJO in the SW Atlantic basin is becoming established.

However, SSTs are at or near record levels in the SW Atlantic basin, especially in the NW Caribbean Sea, so plausibly, we could see 2 to 3 major cyclones heading into the final couple of months of the season.

[Macrocane]

I think we could reach 6 or 7, 8 is too high IMO but if we reach that number it would be a tie, 9 is even more unbelievable to me. But that's jsut my opinion and the tropics are always full of surprises .

[KWT]

There is by the way a real chance at least 1 of 1950s major hurricane wasn't actually a major, it was the period when recon was really starting to fly into systems and from sort of 50-65 they had a habit of sometimes overdoing the winds because of not quite knowing the FL-surface ratio.

However I doubt we get to 8...but 6 or 7 is more then do able and that would still be a very extreme season indeed...indeed I'd say 6 right now is just about certain given what we know about warm phase La Nina and October storms...

[Ad Novoxium]

There is by the way a real chance at least 1 of 1950s major hurricane wasn't actually a major, it was the period when recon was really starting to fly into systems and from sort of 50-65 they had a habit of sometimes overdoing the winds because of not quite knowing the FL-surface ratio.

However I doubt we get to 8...but 6 or 7 is more then do able and that would still be a very extreme season indeed...indeed I'd say 6 right now is just about certain given what we know about warm phase La Nina and October storms...

I did a quick go-through of the eight majors in that season and checked whether I can believe it or not. The two really suspect ones are Fox and Jig: both were small storms and out to sea. Also, the MWR doesn't mention if these two had their winds measured. In fact, the MWR indicates that Jig's maximum sustaind winds were possibly estimated rather than measured. The most solid majors were likely King, Dog, Baker, and Easy (they were all near land at major intensities). I'd say if reanalysis comes by, Jig may be demoted.

Also, strangely, one non-major this season - Item - was a Category 2 in the same place Karl was in. Coincidence?

[Hurricanehink]

I think the only way this season could've was if Alex reached major status back in June. It was well on its way before moving ashore. If we had that, we'd be at six right now, and two majors after September 20th isn't impossible (2008, 2005, 2001, 2000, 1996, 1995).

Of those years, only 2005 had 3 after this point (Rita Wilma and Beta), which we need now to tie the record of 8. Granted, 2005 didn't have any November majors, so it isn't impossible. Say, if the prospective Caribbean system becomes a major in September, we get two in October (which other than 2005 hasn't happened since 1964 with Hilda and Isbell, since 1961 with two tropical cyclones becoming hurricanes in October with Frances and Hattie, and since 1950 for two storms forming in October with Jig and King), and one in November (see 2008, 2001, 1999), then this season could get 9. Although it is a longshot, it is possible.

[hurricaneCW]

I think getting a few more majors is very possible especially this season with the moderate La Nina and very hot Caribbean/Gulf. This won't be your typical season where everything begins to slow down rapidly after September and I feel that the Caribbean system that all the models are showing has a good chance of being our next major. Future Caribbean systems could become majors too so it's not impossible to at least tie the record with 8.

[Ptarmigan]

I think we could reach 6 or 7, 8 is too high IMO but if we reach that number it would be a tie, 9 is even more unbelievable to me. But that's jsut my opinion and the tropics are always full of surprises .

That is what I am thinking too. I think we could get 8 major hurricanes.