Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

The models continue to advertise developments across the NW carribean next week. This may not be associated with Matthew but a new area of low pressure which would likely be designated Nicole. THe GFS has been very consistent in bringing a hurricane with slightly different solutions to portion of South or Central FL in 7-10 days. All resident of FL should monitor this situation closely..


GFS 6Z:



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

[Vortex]

Snipet from NHC:


THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SEVERAL OF THEM SHOWING RATHER
COMPLEX SCENARIOS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL MOVE MATTHEW
WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN
2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY WEAKEN
MATTHEW...THEN DEVELOP A SECOND CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...GFDL....AND HWRF
KEEP MATTHEW AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AND SHOW IT TURNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS THAN NORMAL.

[Vortex]

00Z ECM H120 taking shape across the NW carribean



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

6Z HWRF implies an energy tranfer to the east...Matt moves inland over belize than a new low form to the east hence the jump....




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

6Z GFS 850mb vorticty you can clearly see matt head inland and weaken as a new vorticity takes over in the western carribean...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[jlauderdal]

6Z GFS 850mb vorticty you can clearly see matt head inland and weaken as a new vorticity takes over in the western carribean...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

JB is liking that solution this morning per his twitter post

[Vortex]

NWS Miami chimes in:


FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY...AND
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STUBBORN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DUE TO HIGH LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY...WE MAINTAINED MOSTLY 30-40 POPS FOR EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

[Vortex]

6Z Nogaps implies energy transfer with a broad area of low pressure over the NW carribean and Ex Matthew over or near Guatemala...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

NWS Melbourne:


WED-FRI...FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN AS WE NEAR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MAJOR
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON DEVELOPING TROPICAL ACTIVITY TOWARD
FLORIDA. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE BUILDS TC MATTHEW W/NW TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN BY TUESDAY WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND.
BY MID WEEK THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OR WEAKENING OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS
THIS OCCURS MODELS DEVELOP A MORE VIGOROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM
(CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW?) SOUTH OF CUBA AND LIFT IT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER AS
STATED BEFORE...SEVERE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES HAVE EXISTED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THESE SOLUTIONS

[Vortex]

NWS Tampa:


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC REACHING WEST ACROSS THE
STATE TO THE GULF WILL SLIDE EAST AS A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...MOVING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN STATES BY
LATE TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN SLOWS AND BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE THE DEEP ATLANTIC RIDGING
CONTINUES TO REACH THE U.S. COASTAL WATERS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND/OR THE ADJACENT WATERS BY THURSDAY

[pepeavilenho]

I made a map



Blue=Matthew
Black=Tropical wave(¿future Nicole?)

[Vortex]

12Z NAM H60

More agressive...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Vortex]

H66 stronger

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H72 and stronger S of Cuba...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[caneseddy]

I'm not liking this set-up for us here in South Florida

Vortex, I know you kept mentioning King from 1950 as a good analog for what the models are depicting; are you still on that horse or are you thinking a path like Irene in 1999 (either path would rake us)

Nevertheless, this weekend I'm going to do some preliminary preparations here just in case we have something next week, so I won't be caught off guard

[Vortex]

H84..very bullish



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

I think a wilma, irene, or king track all are equal right now...i do expect a significant threat to S or central fl next weekend...

[srainhoutx]

Here is the PREDICT Team Synopsis of what they think will evolve over Central America...

1. GFS & ECMWF continue to show development of a large
circulation to the east of Matthew around day 4. Yesterday, it
looked like it would come out of a east-west oriented vorticity
strip associated with a line of convection emanating out of the
northeast sector of Matthew itself. As of yesteday's 12Z run,
the story has changed. Now it seems that the models are locking
onto a monsoonal-type of development in which high OW values are
pulled eastward by the flow on the south side of Matthew from
the Eastpac into the Caribbean, which then develop. UKMET and
NOGAPS also show this OW max, but they haven't depicted a
circulation or pouch at the day 4-5 period yet. (See the fields
for Matthew to see this potential system.)



http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... opsis.html

[srainhoutx]

HPC on the possibilities of a future Nicole...

T.S. MATTHEW EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY. SEE NHC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT BUT SOMEWHAT ERRATIC ON ANOTHER AREA OF
CYCLOGENSIS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. A CONTINUED WESTERLY PHASE MJO IS CURRENTLY
AND FORECAST TO KEEP UP ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY H850 MB WINDS OVER
THE TROPICAL EPAC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS CREATES FAVORABLE
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE CHI VERTICAL
VELOCITY ANOMALIES SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME FORM OF CYCLOGENSIS IN
THIS REGION. ALL GLOBAL MODELS GFS/ECMWF/NGPS/CMC/UKMET AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTER
ROUGHLY NEAR WRN CUBA BY DAY 7 FRI. SEE FUTURE NHC/TPC
DISCUSSIONS. HPC PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS AGAIN THE DEPICTION BY
ECMWF ENS MEAN.

[otowntiger]

6Z GFS 850mb vorticty you can clearly see matt head inland and weaken as a new vorticity takes over in the western carribean...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

That bit of animation is perhaps the best graphic I've seen on Matt and this 'future' system. Very ominous look to it at day 7. Very interesting indeed. .