Upcoming week - September 27-October 3

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And that will be very important to remember again when looking at this upcoming week....another red disclaimer is coming.

Evaluating last week:

In short, not good. The one major area where I was remotely OK was with Lisa, and even that was off. The development was well-anticipated, but timing was off by about 12 hours. OK, that’s not exactly earth-shattering, but the track sure was. I predicted a northwesterly track, which was a far cry from the easterly track that did happen. I also predicted a re-curve between 35 and 40 degrees, and it didn’t even make it that far west! As for intensity, I was correct in predicting a hurricane of no higher intensity of 75-80 mph, and 80 mph was reached late Friday. However, I predicted that would happen on Wednesday instead, with a gradual weakening from there on. The northward motion was correctly anticipated late in the week, but in the wrong location for obvious reasons, and Lisa did speed up as it weakened from hurricane intensity. I predicted that would happen at about 25 degrees, but it came a bit close to 20 instead. Lisa did then continue weakening, and has de-generated into a remnant low, which was anticipated. Basically, there were snippets of this forecast that were good, such as the maximum overall intensity, the general northward track, and the spot-on timing of dissipation for Sunday. But the events leading up to a lot of this were also way wrong. That said, Lisa was a fish, which was the general prediction, and not terribly important to nail all these aspects right on the nose. Therefore, I give myself a B- for this part of the forecast. OK, not quite as bad as I thought there looking back, but still nothing to brag about too much.

I was also correct in the timing of Julia’s weakening to a remnant low, so that gets an A. Also getting an A is the correct prediction of no developments besides that of Lisa in the eastern Atlantic and Matthew in the Caribbean.

However, the last 24 hours of the Igor forecast were even a train wreck! I predicted Igor would weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, pass just south of Newfoundland but bring tropical storm force winds there, and then become extratropica on Tuesday. Igor actually held its hurricane intensity and made landfall in Newfoundland instead on Monday. That said, it did still become extratropical on Tuesday, but not before I was left with a blown forecast. The weight isn’t too significant, but the grade here is still a D-.

And then there’s Matthew. Well, I guess I was correct in predicting something in the Caribbean, about between Jamaica and Honduras. The timing was a sordid story, however. I predicted the development for Sunday, and it came on Thursday instead. By missing the timing that much, the forecast was guaranteed to be blown. There was no way from there that I would get the landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua for Friday with 60-mph maximum sustained winds and then dissipating over Central America. I have no choice but to give myself an F for this part of the forecast.

The not-as-important forecasts, overall, were pretty good. The more crucial Igor and Matthew forecasts, however, were horrific to say the least. The bad forecasts average to an F and the good forecasts average to probably an A-. With more weight to the bad forecasts because they were overall unfortunately more important, I have to give myself a D- for the week overall.

Can you figure out that I’m glad this past week is over and done with? Yeah, let’s move on to hopefully something better…

Current situation and models

Lisa and Matthew have both dissipated. With Lisa heading further north over cooler waters and Matthew continuing inland, neither should re-develop – this doesn’t even require looking at models. Some people are still talking about the remnants of Julia, and the NHC has been tracking the remnant low on the PDF server. The overall track has shown this remnant appearing to execute a long, Alberto-ish loop over the open waters. It’s at a similar latitude to Lisa’s remnant low, however, and models also don’t really do anything with it, if at all.

So we appear to be in a lull with the storms starting to die out. Or are we? Matthew may have come and gone from the Caribbean, but models are picking up on a development in just a couple days in the same general area. The idea is a development on late Tuesday at the earliest, but more likely on Wednesday, with a northward track towards Florida. The Canadian is giving this a chance at hurricane intensity, the GFS suggests a tropical storm, and the Euro sees something rather disorganized but probably a tropical storm. The East Coast also should probably watch out, but the system looks like it could become elongated as it approaches a front/trough that will pick it up and send it northeast – possibly even becoming absorbed if its weak enough.

Beyond that, PGI48L is being discussed as a possible development east of the Leeward Islands later this week. No models really do anything with it until at least Thursday. It’s pretty small in size and those types of systems can intensify in a hurry. Just as quickly as they do that, they can also weaken. That said, water temperatures are still warm enough to support some development in that part of the world, and the NOGAPS likes something to develop east of the Windward Islands before the weekend.

Finally, following the proposed Caribbean development in the early part of this week is another potential development during the weekend. For now, models are being more aggressive with this system than the more current one, but that aggression goes beyond next weekend. It’s still something to look at for potential development during this upcoming week, though.

Recent history

During this upcoming week, there have been two tropical storms develop since 1995 in the northwestern Caribbean: Keith in 2000 and Stan in 2005. Both took westerly paths, a far cry from what is predicted from the development anticipated on late Tuesday getting into Wednesday. I must point out, however, that Opal’s incipient depression in 1995 also developed on September 27 in the Caribbean – but it became a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Opal, as we all know, took a northerly track from there, but not after its own brief westward jog.

Overall, this is a pretty weak analysis for what this proposed development might do. So I’d like to go a bit further back to find storms that still developed around this time, but took tracks like the one predicted out of the proposed midweek storm. Going back to 1950, I was able to find three examples: How in 1951, an unnamed storm in 1953, and Jenny in 1969. All took similar paths to Florida, and all were tropical storms when they reached there. How had 70-mph maximum sustained winds when it made landfall, but the unnamed storm and Jenny were minimal tropical storms. A closer look shows that How was a tropical storm for about 36 hours before it made landfall, the unnamed storm 24 hours as a tropical storm, and Jenny 12 hours.

Looking at PGI48L, examples since 1995 of storms developing in this region during this upcoming week or close include Noel in 1995, Joyce in 2000, Kate in 2003, and Melissa in 2007. Only Melissa failed to become a hurricane, but it also developed latest and furthest east of this bunch – forming near the Cape Verde Islands on September 28. That said, Joyce, the only one to reach anywhere close to the Windward Islands, was on the way down as it got closer, and dissipated as it approached. Noel and Kate, the two storms that sustained themselves better, re-curved to the north and developed a little outside the week, September 26 for Noel and September 25 for Kate (though Kate became a storm on the 27th).

Finally, a new development could take placed following the proposed development at midweek. Since development is of higher interest for this during this week if it takes place, I’ll focus on timing of similar storms developing in the wake of others. Matthew formed on September 23, and this development would be on September 28 or 29 most likely. Well, following Hurricane Keith in 2000 (developed September 28) was Tropical Storm Leslie, in a similar complex environment, but it didn’t become a tropical storm until October 5, already off the east coast of Florida and heading out to sea. The next Caribbean storm after Stan in 2005 was Wilma, which came two weeks later – not a good example. How about looking at the older examples a bit more? Well, Item in 1951 formed in a similar area after How (form September 28), but not until October 12 – two weeks later. Nothing came immediately after Jenny in 1969. But notice I skipped over the unnamed storm in 1953? That’s because this one could be more crucial, as it developed on October 3 – followed not long by Hazel on October 7 (not to be confused with the famous North Carolina hurricane a year later). That’s a difference of only four days, much closer to these two potential storms. And the unnamed storm on October 7, 1953? It was already extratropical and on its way out. For track and intensity purposes – the unnamed storms skimmed the southeast coast of Florida with 40-mph maximum sustained winds on October 4, while Hazel was almost a hurricane when it made landfall Fort Myers on October 9. Still, if this does all happen, I’ll talk about it more next week, but this is something to start with for then.

So what does this all tell us?

I know, that was quite possibly a really confusing section to read. To cut it brief, Matthew followed a path similar to Keith in 2000, while models predict a track closer to Leslie for the new development. With Leslie being a lot weaker than Keith, it’s most likely the same will happen with the midweek development, especially if models agree with that (yes, Matthew was a lot weaker than Keith, but it also ran into land, and do you really think Matthew wouldn’t intensify further had it been a bit further north and over water longer? I know I wouldn’t with that heat content). So Keith and Leslie is probably the best recent analog to use for this situation. That said, if the storm stalls in the Caribbean, Cuba and Florida could have quite a problem on their hands – but that doesn’t appear likely once it develops, if it does.

For PGI48L, as it moves further west, it’s probably less likely to become anything significant in terms of intensity. Joyce and Melissa sure couldn’t really do anything following similar tracks, instead just weakening. Maybe a depression or weak tropical storm comes out of this, but probably not much more than that.

And finally, the 1953 example does show that if the first development does indeed come on Wednesday, that it is just not out of the realm of possibility for another one to come on Sunday if it’s far enough behind. If the first one is at least on the way out by then as most models predict, it’s very much possible. I know there were no satellites back then, but I do wonder if there was a similar monsoon trough in 1953 around this time.

Back to looking ahead

With the model consensus of a tropical development taking place late Tuesday or more strongly on Wednesday in the northwestern Caribbean, it’s too risky to go against it. The track is also pretty easy to figure out, as it should run into a trough that will take it northeast across Florida and then maybe skirting the East Coast, if not absorbing it as some models appear to suggest. The intensity is another matter, with the Canadian supporting a hurricane, but not much more support for that. Instead, a large, broad tropical storm is the general prediction for Florida with this one. I predict a tropical depression will form at the 11 PM advisory on Tuesday, and Tropical Storm Nicole to for on Wednesday at the 11 AM advisory not far south of the western tip of Cuba, about due east of Cozumel. The next morning, Nicole will slowly head into the Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds reaching 45-50 mph after passing over Pinar del Rio province in Cuba (westernmost on the island). Nicole will speed up that evening and turn northeast, making landfall early on Friday morning with about 50 miles either way of Naples, Florida. Maximum sustained winds will be somewhere in the 50-65 mph range. As Nicole crosses Florida, it will spread very heavy rainfall and tropical storm winds across a wide area of Florida, with effects from the Keys to the Georgia border. Nicole will re-emerge into the Atlantic that evening with 45-50 mph maximum sustained winds, and the next day be absorbed in the trough as it skirts the Carolina coastline. However, due to this precise nature of the prediction and effects of land, overall confidence is 40%. I ask once again to pay closer attention to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts, and your local authorities for what to do if/when this approaches your area if it is significant. This is also a disturbance that has not yet developed, and developing further south than forecast could raise the possibility of a landfalling hurricane, as the Canadian model suggests. Also, keep in mind I had a very poor week last week.

Now PGI48L, which models try to do something with late in the period. If it develops that far west, it probably amounts to very little, with the most recent examples only weakening close to the Lesser Antilles, where models predict this may develop. I predict no development for PGI48L. Confidence is 70%.

And the new development at the weekend. With Nicole being out of the picture by the weekend, the door is open for another area by the weekend. Will it happen? I predict a tropical depression will develop on Sunday morning and become Tropical Storm Otto before the day is up, with maximum sustained winds of 40-45 mph. It will be in the northwestern Caribbean heading slowly northwest. Confidence is 70%.

Elsewhere, I predict no tropical cyclone development, including any re-formation of the remnants of either Julia or Lisa. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[Florida1118]

It sounds like a expert wrote it...Keep up the good work! We appreciate it!

[Raininfyr]

Excellent comments. Enjoyed the read.

[Macrocane]

One of the most complex patterns of the season is in place now in the Caribbean so I know it is a hard forecast and I agree with you about 2 storms developing. Thanks for the discussion.

[Andrew92]

Thanks for the comments you guys, greatly appreciate it. I will admit that the 1953 example is pretty rare, being that it's the only time it's happened during the week this could happen. Then again, maybe it's possible it happened another time during a different time period that I didn't really delve into. All it really shows is that a similar scenario to what I've suggested has happened before and while rare, is not totally unprecedented.

Now we'll see if I'm right!

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Well, let's evaluate....Invest 97L will not develop tonight, I'm pretty certain of that, nor will anything else.

This past week was a somewhat rough week, though it did have a couple bright spots. Starting with the Nicole forecast, I predicted its depression to develop on Monday, being designated at the 11 PM advisory. It did develop on Monday, but at the 11 AM advisory instead. Still, I said that would happen south of the western tip of Cuba, due east of Cozumel, and that’s pretty much where that happened. I also predicted it would become a tropical storm at the 11 AM advisory on Tuesday, and that indeed happened when I said it would. However, I predicted it would happen closer to western Cuba again, but it slid northeast and did so near central Cuba instead. Maximum sustained winds were no higher than 40 mph, a little outside a 45-50 mph window for Cuba and 50-65 mph for Florida. And speaking of Florida, I predicted a landfall near Naples, but the eastward motion kept it just offshore. I also predicted quite a rain event from Nicole in Florida, but it was more concentrated east of the center, in Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, and then later North Carolina as a non-tropical entity. I did predict accurately the dissipation method, that it would be absorbed into a trough of low pressure. It happened closer to Florida on Tuesday, not the Carolinas on Saturday like I said. So I was off on a little of everything really with Nicole but the early development time and location were accurate, as was the method of dissipation. This was not a terribly good forecast, but I did at least have a grasp of what was happening and I acknowledged the forecast would be a difficult one. I did also pick a very good analog in an unnamed storm from 1953 at around the same time. Leslie from 2000 was also not a bad choice either. I give myself a C for this part of the forecast.

PGI48L was a tropical wave that I predicted would not develop. It became Invest 97L, but has become no more than that so far. Therefore, I give myself and A here.

I did predict a Caribbean development on Sunday, and there was a disturbance that, with more favorable conditions, might have pulled it off. However, it fizzled out instead. I gave into some models that were suggesting it could happen, but it turned out to be a phantom, and I give myself a D for this part of the forecast.

But elsewhere, nothing developed as I predicted, so I get an A there.

This past week centered around Nicole. It wasn’t that great of a forecast, but the setup was complicated and harder to pin down. However, nothing else was really threatening to develop except maybe PGI48L, but that didn’t come to fruition as some suggested (but not me). As I said, this was a pretty rough week, but had a few bright spots here and there. I give myself a C+ for this week.

This next week coming up shortly!

-Andrew92