Pouch PGI51L : East of the Windwards (Is part of invest 97L)

[HURAKAN]

A system to watch

[cycloneye]

Synopsis by the predict team.

Pouch Name: PGI51L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 11N 48W
Notes:

This pouch has been around for a few days, but the models always
killed it, or at least kept it weaker than PGI48L to its east.
However, today, two of the four models intensify PGI51L more
than PGI48L, so PGI51L deserves its own number.

[Gustywind]

Looks like much convection today with PGI52L and looking a bit more organized compared to the previous days. Let's be vigilant Cycloneye as we're ending this month of September...

[cycloneye]

The 12 Canadian has a strong Tropical Storm/Hurricane just east of the Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[caneseddy]

I think this is the one the Euro also had a strong TS/minimal hurricane east of the Leewards as well?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[ConvergenceZone]

Is this expected to recurve? or be a carib threat?

[cycloneye]

Is this expected to recurve? or be a carib threat?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It looks like the ridge will be strong enough to keep this system moving west to westnorthwestward for a few days.After that it will be key when it begins to take a more northward track as the ridge weakens.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is this expected to recurve? or be a carib threat?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It looks like the ridge will be strong enough to keep this system moving west to westnorthwestward for a few days.After that it will be key when it begins to take a more northward track as the ridge weakens.

ahh okay thanks Luis, so this must not be the Carib system that the models are predicting for next week then...

[Aric Dunn]

This is the same area I have been mentioning for the past few days ( near 45W) in the other thread. It is now merging with the old weak low from the other day.

[chrisjslucia]

Looks like much convection today with PGI52L and looking a bit more organized compared to the previous days. Let's be vigilant Cycloneye as we're ending this month of September...

This loop reminds me of the three card trick (48,49,51) or find the lady - as they appear to interchange position. CIMMS Predict has 51 going N of the Leewards but the track models overlaid on the Predict image offer a scatter gun of possibilities from Trinidad, the Windwards via Barbados, the Leewards or further North.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#

[Aric Dunn]

The 12 z euro brings into the central bahamas heading west with a strong ridge to the north..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[northjaxpro]

The 12 z euro brings into the central bahamas heading west with a strong ridge to the north..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Yeah the ridge on the Euro 12z indeed strengthens to the north of this system. If this system develops, it could be a considerable concern next week. Definitely something to stay vigilant.

[caneseddy]

That would be an unusual path for October to come east under a high pressure towards the SE Coast; typically you would see that in August-early September

Even though it is 240 hours away (long range) I would say that the Euro has been pretty good recently with tropical systems and I believe it was the first model to pick up this feature one, then the GFS jumped on it and now the Canadian, so not totally discount it

[HURAKAN]

793
ABNT20 KNHC 281736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 1210 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[knotimpaired]

Ok eveyone, rise and shine.

I would like to know your opinions on this with a fresh eye

[GCANE]

Dog-leg ensemble track next 72 hrs.

Looks like it is forecast to deepen.

Maybe something for PR to watch.

[GCANE]

Pretty vigorous this morning.

MCS's firing around 12N 54W just at the tail-end of the strong shear axis.

Located underneath an anti-cyclone.









[img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
[/img]

[Gustywind]