Upcoming week - October 11-17

[Andrew92]

It's way early for me, I know, but I may not get the chance to post this again tonight. The reason? I am sitting at a Starbuck's because I lost my Internet at home. Anyway, without any further ado....

Evaluating last week

This week centered a lot around Otto. When looking at how I did on Otto, it was a bit of a mixed bag. I was off on the development time by 24 hours, but the location was accurate, along with an addendum post indicating a flood threat to the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The storm also got a lot stronger than I expected; I predicted 45-50 mph at the strongest and occurring on Saturday, and Otto became a decent hurricane on Friday (though I don’t think I would have ever predicted Otto to gather 85-mph maximum sustained winds at any point). I predicted the re-curved would begin on Friday and it did, but it was already heading east-northeast to northeast by then, whereas I predicted a north to north-northeasterly movement that day. Still, the location of the track was excellent, and from there on I expected a short-lived storm, becoming extratropical by today. Indeed, the last advisory has been written, this very morning. Overall, intensity was way off, but the track was generally executed well. I give myself a B- for the Otto portion.

Elsewhere, I predicted no other tropical cyclone development, from a wave behind Otto to the Caribbean, to elsewhere in the Atlantic. Invest 98L is threatening to develop, but hasn’t done it yet, so I give myself an A for these categories.

When combining the Otto prediction and the accurate predictions elsewhere, this was a decent week overall. I give myself a B+ for this week.

Now, how will I do this week? It’s going to be tough, confidence will be low at best, but here goes my best shot….

Current situation and models

Invest 98L is the big threat to develop, in the western Caribbean. Models are hesitant at best in developing the system, but it does appear to have a decent spin to it. If it organizes just a bit more, it probably will be upgraded to a tropical depression. That said, it could just as easily run into Nicaragua and Honduras, and may not have enough time to become more than a depression or weak tropical storm, as most models seem to be suggesting. But some models to show a northerly component, allowing this to perhaps threaten most likely Cuba, but south Florida and the Bahamas could just as easily be under the gun if such a thing were to go up that way. Water temperatures I think go without saying, they are plenty warm to support a significant hurricane. Yet, some other models suggest little to no development, or the possibility of the disturbance meandering for the next week. One recent run of the Euro even seems to suggest this, and that development could come closer to the weekend. Or could it be that two different systems develop again, like Matthew and Nicole? What can I say, other than this is a very difficult prediction I am facing in this area, with all these possibilities!

Elsewhere, there doesn’t seem to be anything of note that models are picking up on, so the focus will likely be on Invest 98L this upcoming week.

Recent history

Recent history suggests if something big is going to develop in the Caribbean in October, this is a very good week to see it. Look at these storms which developed in this area during this upcoming week:

Kyle in 1996
Lili in 1996
Irene in 1999
Wilma in 2005
Omar in 2008

That may only be five storms, but only one didn’t become a hurricane (Kyle), and all but one took northerly paths (the exception again is Kyle). Only one other storm since 1995 has taken a different path than one north, and it was the already active Roxanne in 1995. It was also a major hurricane as it hit the Yucatan on October 11. Also, even if it doesn’t happen yet, we hadn’t even seen Mitch in 1998 yet by the time this week was over.

When looking elsewhere as a whole, new storms during this upcoming week since 1995 have included:

Grace in 1997
Jose in 1999
Michael in 2000
Karen in 2001
Nicholas in 2003
Nana in 2008

Out of these six storms, half developed from tropical origins and half came from non-tropical origins. Jose, Michael, and Karen were the only hurricanes. That’s two non-tropical storms that became hurricanes, and one tropical wave that did. Nicholas came close in 2003 from a tropical wave, but came just short. Grace and Nana were not even close.

So what does this all tell us?

Invest 98L certainly has history on its side, but not so much the models. This further reinforces how difficult of a prediction this week is going to be. As I said earlier, confidence was going to be low, and you are now seeing why. Yet, some models also seem to foresee something at the end of the week, but I am not fully sure if this is Invest 98L itself, or something else. My best guess is it’s something else, as models weaken Invest 98L if anything while taking it west or northwest, while the models that foresee something at the end of the week have the development in a rather similar area to where Invest 98L currently is.

History also suggests it is possible to see something form elsewhere, but they are few and far between and are often weaker. With little or no model support, it is probably best to say no development there.

Back to looking ahead

So now it’s crunch time for me in terms of Invest 98L. Do I predict a significant storm to come out of this as history would like me to suggest, or something weaker? Also, could something else form at the end of the week, or is that simply Invest 98L? If two such developments happened, it could certainly be similar to 1996, with 98L/likely Paula acting as Kyle, and the second development (possibly Richard) acting as Lili. For the Caribbean, as a whole this week, this is my best shot: I predict Invest 98L to become a tropical depression on Monday afternoon just off the coast of Honduras. It will graze Central America, but emerge into the Gulf of Honduras and become Tropical Storm Paula on Tuesday in the late morning hours. That evening, Paula will make landfall in the Yucatan, near the Mexico/Belize border, with maximum sustained winds of 40-50 mph. It will then rain itself out over land, but cause some major flooding in the process. Confidence for this portion of the forecast is 40%.

After Paula comes and goes, I am going out on a limb and predicting one more development on Saturday night in the southwestern Caribbean, a little further east from Central America. On Sunday, as it heads northwest to north-northwest, it will become Tropical Storm Richard with maximum sustained winds reaching 50-60 mph by the end of that day, posing the most immediate threat to the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Confidence for this portion of the forecast is 35%.

Elsewhere, I predict no tropical cyclone development. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Oh dear, this one may be going downhill fast. I guess that's what I get for making such a risky prediction.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Let's get this evaluation over with. The bad grade I get is what I deserve for such a gutsy and wrong-o prediction.

Last week was, in short, a disaster for me. It is thankful, though, that Paula was such a small storm and effects were limited, and that nothing else of warrant took place. As for Paula itself, I predicted the timing of development correctly as happening on Monday. But I had Paula being a weak tropical storm that would rain itself out into Central America – instead, it became an impressive, but small, C2 hurricane and re-curved gradually into Cuba as a dying tropical storm, and dissipated shortly after that. I also predicted Richard to form during the weekend – well, Invest 99L is here, but no Richard. Lastly, well, at least I predicted no other developments in the Atlantic. I can only take small solace in that and the good timing of development for Paula. With the rest of the week being the disaster it was and Paula being so important, I’m not sugarcoating anything: I flat-out deserve an F for last week.

This upcoming week coming up shortly, with hopefully a much better outcome.

-Andrew92