Pouch PGI61L in Central Atlantic

[OURAGAN]

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N20W 07N28W 11N36W THEN RESUMES
06N47W 03N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATES OFFSHORE OF W AFRICA
ANALYZED FROM 11N20W TO 23N16W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-18N BETWEEN 17W-21W AND
WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 19N. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N38W TO 18N35W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MONSOONAL GYRE BETWEEN 35W-45W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 32W-41W...MAINLY
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 22W-33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

[cycloneye]

You nailed this area as now NHC starts to mention it on the TWO'S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS NOT LIKELY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

You nailed this area as now NHC starts to mention it on the TWO'S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS NOT LIKELY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Yep time to keep an small eye on this...

[expat2carib]

Because of the time of the year there is IMO a small possibility this starts spinning. Lots of shear. Lets hope it doesn't bring another rain event to the Islands.

[cycloneye]

Even if this does not form into a Tropical Depression or Storm,only mentioning it on the TWO is interesting. Is not unheard to have storms forming at this time on October in that area as the last example was Tropical Storm Nana in 2008,that formed in the general area this is located.

[Macrocane]

Well, the CMC and NOGAPS have been developing a weak tropical cyclone from this low in the past few days.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N20W 07N28W 11N36W THEN RESUMES
06N47W 03N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATES OFFSHORE OF W AFRICA
ANALYZED FROM 11N20W TO 23N16W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-18N BETWEEN 17W-21W AND
WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 19N. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 05N46W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N38W TO 18N35W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MONSOONAL GYRE BETWEEN 35W-45W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 32W-41W...MAINLY
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 22W-33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

[gatorcane]

Looking good on satellite. Could be an invest soon.

[abajan]

Even if this develops into a TD or TS, I suspect it will recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. Nevertheless, it bears watching.

[cycloneye]

This is now pouch PGI 61L. OURAGAN, I edited the title to include the pouch.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI61L.html

[cycloneye]

Even if this develops into a TD or TS, I suspect it will recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. Nevertheless, it bears watching.

If you look closely at this loop of the 12z GFS, you can follow this low pressure as it moves westward towards the Southern Windwards.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

You said about bear watching,well here they are.

[Gustywind]

Even if this develops into a TD or TS, I suspect it will recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. Nevertheless, it bears watching.

If you look closely at this loop of the 12z GFS, you can follow this low pressure as it moves westward towards the Southern Windwards.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

You said about bear watching,well here they are.

Cycloneye always a genius able to send us some humor with these bears Let's hope that nothing will happen with this after the last amazing episode of rain in the EC . Let's wait and see as usual...

[cycloneye]

The Canadian model continues to develop this and at the 12z run , is much more bullish than anytime before.But different from GFS,it moves it northward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS PART
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS NOT NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

TAFB 72 hour forecast.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
NOT NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Ptarmigan]

It could end up in the Caribbean where it may develop.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
NOT NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC moves it towards northern Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation