#6 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 08, 2010 10:41 pm
The dry air really isn't penetrating the eastern Caribbean - yet. And wind shear is low in the area for the next few days, anyway. Surface obs indicate a broad weak low center with a central pressure of 1007-1008mb. Models have been predicting a low formation Tue/Wed for over a week now. Nothing really strong, though. By Thursday, the deepening low near Bermuda should produce increasing westerly flow aloft across the Caribbean, reducing any development threat and steering whatever is there off to the north and northeast. Most likely just a rain event for the NE Caribbean. I'd say development chances 10-20%.
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