2011 Steering Pattern/Early indicators

[Ivanhater]

Well we are approaching March and eyes are turning to warmer weather, Severe weather and possible early tropical storm formation. Last year was insane number wise but the U.S was saved by a trough off the east coast and a ridge over the Gulf. It is interesting to see early model guidance on how the pattern will evolve this year. We know an active season is forecast this year heading into a weak La Nina or Neutral phase, but what about the steering pattern?

Looking at the Euro ensemble mean forecast for the beginning of Hurricane season, it seems most of the tropical Atlantic will have normal pressure. What has stuck out to me is the lower pressure over the central U.S. That would indicate an opening for storms to hit the Southeast U.S. indicators



Also of note is the SST forecast. It looks like much of the MDR will be above normal this year as well.



The updated Euro seasonal guidance will be out tomorrow I believe. That will bring us into August. It will be interesting to see how the steering pattern will take shape as we head into Spring.

[cycloneye]

Michael, it will be very interesting to follow month by month,how it all evolves in the forecasting by the guidance.Also a factor to look will be how the NAO behaves,because it is a factor on the steering.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Febuary update for June,July and August that shows more lower pressures in the MDR,Caribbean and in the Midwest U.S.

[HurricaneRyan]

I think the tornado and Hurricane Seasons go together sometimes.

2010: Both active seasons. Tornadoes however did more damage than hurricanes.
2009: Tornadoes and hurricanes were both practically forgettable this year.
2008: Second most active year on record for tornadoes, including the Parkersburg EF5. We also had Destructive hurricanes, especially Gustav and Ike.
2007: EF5 tornado in Kansas, TWO Category 5 hurricanes making landfall at that intensity. Needless to say...2007 was a record-breaker in both areas.
2006: March and April were very active, but May and June weren't. Similar to how the 2006 season still had some activity in June, July, August, and September, but no named storms formed in November.
2005: Tornado activity was below average and it actually ramped up in June...which is the same time we started the crazy 2005 season.
2004: Both got off to a late start: Tornadoes started ramping up in April and the Hurricane Season ramped up in August.
2003: Very active May...also very active season. There was also one month without any activity whatsoever...January for Tornadoes...November for Tropical Cyclones.
2002: Pretty low for both tornadoes and hurricanes. 941 tornadoes in 2002, as well as only 4 hurricanes during the season
2000 and 2001: Pretty normal seasons for both...and pretty normal active seasons as well to put it at that.
1999: Poweful tornadoes, especially The 5/3/1999 event, and 5 powerful Category 4 hurricanes. In addition, we had an unusual tornado in Salt Lake City, and Lenny was unusual in moving West in the Carribean during November.
1998: Active season, and active tornado season.

What I mean is. If the steering currents affect tornadoes, they will affect hurricanes too.

[JonathanBelles]

Thanks for the early analysis guys! Great heads up for what might be ahead.

[StormingB81]

I seen well out here in the Pacific I dont know about the atlantic that La Nina could be in effect to spring or even summer...Any thoughts on if La nina will stick around for much of Hurricane season or no?

[Javlin]

Looking at the Euro ensemble mean forecast for the beginning of Hurricane season, it seems most of the tropical Atlantic will have normal pressure. What has stuck out to me is the lower pressure over the central U.S. That would indicate an opening for storms to hit the Southeast U.S.

I would have to agree with that Ivan.I usually look at it from another perspective on snowfall.While we have not had any along the coast this year we have had a number of Lows coming out of Texas crossing the GOM south of us.This is how we get snow along the coast with a cold airmass already in place and the L providing the moisture.I will gamble that the NGOM will see alittle more action this year.

Also is not expected that the season will go Neutral?Those seasons sre the worst for activity and impacts are they not?

[Ivanhater]

Long range Euro now extends to August. There are hints of a stronger Bermuda ridge, however it does not extend that far west. There is still lower pressure off the East coast of the U.S which would imply possible re curvature.

However, you could read the map as showing the extreme lower pressures around the central U.S which could imply a threat from Louisiana to Florida and up the East coast. This is a blend extending into August. Things will become clearer as we head closer into Hurricane season.

[South Texas Storms]

Ivan so it doesn't look like Texas will be favored to get hit this year? And how reliable are those EURO long range forecasts?

[wxman57]

Ivan so it doesn't look like Texas will be favored to get hit this year? And how reliable are those EURO long range forecasts?

Analog years from Dr. Klotzbach indicated a significantly increased risk of a landfall in TX and LA (Carla - 1961, Chantal & Jerry - 1989, Bret - 1999, Dolly, Gustav and Ike - 2008). A stronger Bermuda high could increase the risk of a landfalling hurricane in the NW Gulf.

[Metalicwx220]

Hurricanes clouds are so dark and ominous. Why?... I have never experienced tropical weather. I want to see a 60mph tropical storm lol. I don't like doom storms and I feel a bad hurricane coming this year. Don't know why? Farmers almanac expects a hurricane in june. LOL 2005 steering pattern???

[cycloneye]

These things happen. Michael,as I see the graphic that you posted for JJA of 2011 of ECMWF, I didn't look at the top to see the year of the graphic of ECMWF as I posted the JJA 2010 one.

Anyway, interesting to see how things shape up in the next forecasts as it would be troublesome for the Caribbean,if this pans out.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan so it doesn't look like Texas will be favored to get hit this year? And how reliable are those EURO long range forecasts?

Analog years from Dr. Klotzbach indicated a significantly increased risk of a landfall in TX and LA (Carla - 1961, Chantal & Jerry - 1989, Bret - 1999, Dolly, Gustav and Ike - 2008). A stronger Bermuda high could increase the risk of a landfalling hurricane in the NW Gulf.

Here are the tracking charts for the analog years Dr. Klotzbach is using. It looks like any storm that forms out in the MDR mostly recurve or could threaten the Carolinas (Hugo). I don't see many Capre verde storms make the journey across in these analog years. Now the threat to the Gulf coast looks to come from the Home brew storms that develop close to home. Interesting analogs.

2008



1999



1989



1961

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't think I really like these analogs....not that analogs ever truly matter in late Feb but even so I don't see why the emphasis on Texas. Then again it seems at this point in the pre-season the forecasters are ALWAYS tryna send a big cane to Texas...or the Eastern Seaboard


A blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.

[Ivanhater]

I don't think I really like these analogs....not that analogs ever truly matter in late Feb but even so I don't see why the emphasis on Texas. Then again it seems at this point in the pre-season the forecasters are ALWAYS tryna send a big cane to Texas...or the Eastern Seaboard


A blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.

Some of the old crew are starting to come back in, we must be getting close to Hurricane season

I agree, analogs are not meant to be a crystal ball but more of an overall pattern recognition. It does look like we will have a much stronger Bermuda High than last year and I believe that will lead to less recurving storms.

[Ivanhater]

Missed 1 analog year being used this year. That is the year Hurricane Flossy hit Pensacola.

1956

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't think I really like these analogs....not that analogs ever truly matter in late Feb but even so I don't see why the emphasis on Texas. Then again it seems at this point in the pre-season the forecasters are ALWAYS tryna send a big cane to Texas...or the Eastern Seaboard


A blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.

Some of the old crew are starting to come back in, we must be getting close to Hurricane season

I agree, analogs are not meant to be a crystal ball but more of an overall pattern recognition. It does look like we will have a much stronger Bermuda High than last year and I believe that will lead to less recurving storms.

No Doubt Ivan! I have been witnessing all the signs that a kinda dull winter is ending and the high pressure is gonna start stacking in. I am confident coupled with Neutral settings and probably above average to 2008 levels SST's, we should have quite a season ahead of us.

I mean realistically we are probably 45-55 days from blob watching! can't wait

[vbhoutex]

Missed 1 analog year being used this year. That is the year Hurricane Flossy hit Pensacola.

1956

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_ar ... at1956.gif[

That is the first Hurricane I remember. I was 5 years old.

[Ivanhater]

Your showing your age David

Interesting discussion from Larry Cosgrove. He thinks we will see an early start to the season with stronger storms.

The ever-active ITCZ is a sign of an impending upturn in the tropical cyclone period in the Atlantic Basin. Unlike the 2010 hurricane season, which has many weak systems and no real threats to the U.S., I suspect that a rather early, intense, and active tropical cyclone period is in store for the major islands and continental coastal points, starting in June. In the meantime, Brazil will be and the Orinoco River watershed the focal point of tremendous rains and severe weather."


"This GOES EAST image is notable as it shows the continuation of excessive rainfall from thunderstorms across all of Brazil. But also see the huge tropical wave over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, which exhibits a circulation. This ITCZ impulse is part of a series of unusually well-developed convective disturbances with definable vorticity maxima. Should this type of feature continue to develop as the discontinuity drifts northward with the coming of spring and summer, the odds on an active and early tropical cyclone season over the Atlantic Basin will increase dramatically."

by Larry Cosgrove Meteorologist

[Macrocane]

It's very interesting indeed, though I would not say that 12 hurricanes 5 of them major can be considered "many weak storms", anyways I do agree that the US will have more threats than 2010.