JB's April 14 about 2011 season Fox.

[OuterBanker]

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4644925/ ... t_id=87069

FYI, the scenes in the background on the right side are from the OBX. Don't know where the left side is from, but it can't be here. We don't have palm trees.

[HURAKAN]

The 50s and 2008 analogs for this year

LOL ... Bastardi says "you don't want to be accused of overhyping." So, it's ok to hype, but not overhype? LOL

[AJC3]

Perhaps I haven't looked as this aspect as closely as I should have, but I've yet to see any of the probablistic, or worse, deterministic, landfall or impact forecasts in the ATLC basin consistently show significant skill compared to climatology over a succession of years. More times than not, I've seen areas forecast or highlighted as having an above normal threat have no impact, and, of course, areas not highlighted having impacts.

IMHO these types of more specific forecasts a very long way to go. Has there any sort of systematic study of their skill?

[NDG]

Hmm, I don't know if I want JB to be giving wx forecasts to financial institutions with his way of hyping things up more than not, we are going to see big swings in the market this year, lol.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Nothing new in his outlook this year lol. JB ALWAYS has a crush on East Coast landfalls, especially NE events. Hey, if he keeps repeating it every year it will eventually happen and he'll be vindicated just by blind luck. Which I'm sure he'll exploit to the fullest.

[Downdraft]

While I do see some merit and skill in determining activity for the upcoming season based on analog years, climitology and ENSO predicting landfall areas with any degress of accuracy is for me a bust. I find it amusing we use such nice terms as probabilities and such. For me saying the probability is "X" is the same as saying the odds are "X" and, odds bring in the element of luck not science.

I am all for hurricane awareness and educating foks of the threat if they live in areas affected by tropical weather. But, I find making predictions of where storms will go in the absence of any current data silly at best and dangerous at worst. I'll wait till we have an initialized center and model data computed on the total synoptic picture.

[Rainband]

While I do see some merit and skill in determining activity for the upcoming season based on analog years, climitology and ENSO predicting landfall areas with any degress of accuracy is for me a bust. I find it amusing we use such nice terms as probabilities and such. For me saying the probability is "X" is the same as saying the odds are "X" and, odds bring in the element of luck not science.

I am all for hurricane awareness and educating foks of the threat if they live in areas affected by tropical weather. But, I find making predictions of where storms will go in the absence of any current data silly at best and dangerous at worst. I'll wait till we have an initialized center and model data computed on the total synoptic picture.

amen I agree with that.