So far...

[Frank2]

...per the guesses of a fairly active season:

April - zero
May - zero
June - apparently will be zero but never say never...

P.S. I mentioned April because we've had a sub-tropical system form during that month more than once over recent years, and May because the first small maximum is statistically on May 5...

Just statistically speaking the later the first system forms the greater the chance that the season totals will be negatively affected - just common sense...

I still stand behind what the NOAA folks of the 1980's had to say about the annual forecasts - very unreliable for so many reasons and not worth the trouble...

Even the media seems to have cooled on this idea, because a busted annual forecast also reflects badly on the station's OCM or on the station or network itself (TWC, AW, etc.)...

Frank

[psyclone]

you can generally sleep through june, july and november. they're frequently almost meaningless. I'm in the Depeche Mode zone of "enjoy the silence" right now. Whatever shortcomings seasonal forecasting has... i agree with those calling for an active season. my guess is we jam in the heart of the season with not much if anything happening before August. it's often that way.

[WeatherGuesser]

Just statistically speaking the later the first system forms the greater the chance that the season totals will be negatively affected -

You work for the Government, right?

[KWT]

Frank, I think there has been plenty of seasons which blow your idea totally out of the water.

For example 2010 had just 2 storms before August, 17 after...

2004 had nothing before the 31st July, 1999 and 1998 both took till mid to late August to really get going. Those seasons are just a few that started slow but really kicked into gear..you'd hardly describe those three as being busts would you??

I mean 1955 had a slow start and had a powerful category-5 in Janet...1961 had an ev en slower start with just one system forming before SEPTEMBER...yet that year had TWO category-5 hurricanes as well as multiple majors.

As I've said before, really June at least shows us absolutly nothing at all, and often July don't matter a whole lot either.

[Frank2]

Hi KWT,

Absolutely right - though I was referring to an entire seasonal total (2006 was one glaring example where it was forecast to be like 2005 - until El Nino showed up earlier than expected)...

My thinking is just based on common sense that the later the start the higher the chance that the seasonal total will be less - again just common sense, though it doesn't always turn out that way, as we all know...

My own feeling is that this season might be problematic for someone, but time will tell - if it's anything like the snow, spring flood, tornado and fire seasons we're all in trouble...

[srainhoutx]

It's only June 20th. I'd be very cautious with reading too much into any lack of activity so far.

[Ivanhater]

...per the guesses of a fairly active season:

April - zero
May - zero
June - apparently will be zero but never say never...


I still stand behind what the NOAA folks of the 1980's had to say about the annual forecasts - very unreliable for so many reasons and not worth the trouble...


Frank

A reminder of the seasonal forecast put out in June.

We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

I am curious why you say these forecasts are not worth the trouble. The experts seem to think there are many positive factors this season for an above average season. What are the negative factors that would argue against this forecast?

[TheShrimper]

Don't read too much into Frank2's comments. He is a naysayer and when something does come to fruition that he has dispelled, he's nowhere to be seen. All indications, as provided via the very learned, point that 2011 will be active, whether it starts early or late. I find it quite hypocrytical that someone who states that Andrew ruined his life ( AUG, AUGUST 24 that is I believe), would insinuate that because of some unsubstantiated early monthly facts, 2011 is done in terms of activity or potential threats. That being said, it is safe to say that something will not live up to what it is forecasted to be.....that's the easy way out. But some will and perhaps it will be a couple of months down the road. Wishing it won't happen or bringing God into the equation as has happened in the past, does no good and one that has been reprimaded for doing so, should have full realization of it. There are going to be many storms and potentially many including me will be affected. Be ready. It is easy to say that nothing will happen, but there's times when it will. Take that to the bank.

[StarmanHDB]

I know that most of the people on this site really enjoy the science behind tropical weather, but when I read many comments typical of Frank's , I have to wonder why. I don't mean to offend, but (as I've previously stated) it seems that many here wish to see tropical systems develop for all of the wrong reasons and, frankly, that scares me. I mean, come on! Casting dispersions on predictions for an active season simply because there haven't been any named storms to date? We all know that the average date for named storms to form in the Atlantic basin is the beginning of the second week of July. However, many people new to coastal areas with an obvious vested interest in tropical weather do not. Indeed, many of those same people come here not only out of interest, but for important information from those who, based on their apparent knowledge, seem to be in the know. Sure, Storm2K is definitely responsible with its disclaimer, but those who post on this forum also need to be responsible, especially with topics this important! With that, before you post anything, please remember and consider these words as someone will be reading and considering yours.

[Macrocane]

you can generally sleep through june, july and november. they're frequently almost meaningless. I'm in the Depeche Mode zone of "enjoy the silence" right now. Whatever shortcomings seasonal forecasting has... i agree with those calling for an active season. my guess is we jam in the heart of the season with not much if anything happening before August. it's often that way.

Depeche Mode is my favorite band though I usually don't enjoy the silence in the tropics, for now the WPAC and EPAC have been interesting enough to watch from a weather lover point of view. I agree with the ones that say that early season inactivity doesn't mean mid-season inactivity.

[hurricanetrack]

Just like the seasons and the sunrise, you can always count on some folks to discount the hurricane season.................in June.

Let's revisit this thread in November like we did with similar threads last year.

Soon it will be autumn like weather and unusually strong troughs brought in to the mix. Mark my words.

(consider them marked)- First Pirates of the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

There have been storms in January, February and March too, so we can give these months a zero!! lol

Look at 1969, the 1st tropical storm formed on July 25 and the season had 18 storms.

On the contrary,

Look at 1968, the 1st named storm formed on June 2nd and by June 23, there were already 3 named systems. At the end, 8 storms formed over the entire season!!

This year conditions favor an active season and we should have easily 13+ storms.

[Ptarmigan]

Frank, I think there has been plenty of seasons which blow your idea totally out of the water.

For example 2010 had just 2 storms before August, 17 after...

2004 had nothing before the 31st July, 1999 and 1998 both took till mid to late August to really get going. Those seasons are just a few that started slow but really kicked into gear..you'd hardly describe those three as being busts would you??

I mean 1955 had a slow start and had a powerful category-5 in Janet...1961 had an ev en slower start with just one system forming before SEPTEMBER...yet that year had TWO category-5 hurricanes as well as multiple majors.

As I've said before, really June at least shows us absolutly nothing at all, and often July don't matter a whole lot either.

1969 had 18 storms and started in late July, the year Camille made landfall on the Gulf Coast. 1998, 1999, and 2004 were deadly years, especially 1998.

[tolakram]

Predictions for this season are for 16 or 17 storms.

All recent (since 1990) seasons with 16 or more storms ( taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_At ... ne_seasons ):

1990: 16 (July 22 - Oct 21)
1995: 21 (June 02 - Nov 03)
1999: 16 (June 11 - Nov 23)
2000: 19 (June 07 - Oct 29)
2001: 17 (June 04 - Dec 06)
2003: 21 (April 20 - Dec 11)
2004: 16 (July 31 - Dec 03)
2005: 31 (June 08 - Jan 06)
2007: 17 (May 09 - Dec 13)
2008: 17 (May 30 - Nov 10)
2010: 21 (June 25 - Nov 07)

Only 2 16+ seasons have not had a storm prior to July during this time period. Every season is different, so this should be interesting as always.

[Macrocane]

Yeah I agree that we may not see 16 or more storms, but IMO 13-14 is very possible and that is still above normal.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree I don'ty think we'll get 16-17, esp with us coming off an La Nina, they tend to be a bit slower BUT importantly I think whilst there maybe say 13-14NS there will be some biggies in there and I suspect once again a fairly high ratio of hurricanes to TS systems.

[Frank2]

Note to board:

I'll just ignore what Shrimper said, though I will say that the reason I "disappear" from this board when a viable system is on the map is because like other veterans of this site, we know the board will be overrun by guests and it's almost useless to post a comment that will be buried within minutes, not to mention that if a system is making landfall in Texas, it's not for me here in Florida to take away board time from those in the affected area who are seeking information on their local weather - of course the reverse would be true if the system were heading this way...

But I will say that the NOAA folks of the 1980's who I worked for felt that the annual forecasts were not worth the trouble because any number of complex factors could change the forecast completely...

Again, the 2006 fiasco was one example - almost everyone was jumping up and down in the early summer of that year, convinced that the season was going to be a continuation of 2005, and it might have been - had God not had other plans (thankfully) and El Nino arrived earlier and stronger than anyone expected...

The fear of a busy 2006 season caused the Army Corps of Engineers to insist that a great deal of water be release from Lake Okeechobee - so much so that it lead to water restrictions in South Florida for the next 3 years - had this fear not been generated by an incorrect annual forecast, that error would not have happened and millions of residents would not have had to endure this problem to the point that the Lake almost ran dry during the drought of 2007 and 2008 - which no one predicted...

So, not by my own knowledge but those who I worked for (many deceased) that I stand by their correct thinking that annual forecasts seem to be used more as tools of fear and sensationalism than anything else...

And, as mentioned yesterday the media has cooled to the annual forecast because a busted forecast makes their own OCM look bad - and hurts ratings when the public loses confidence in the stations "storm expert" - even TWC this year has greatly reduced the amount of air time given to discussing the annual forecasts, for apparently the same reason - they are much better at the "realtime" issues (Dr. Forbes, etc.) than trying to discuss what might happen months from now...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

In 2005, 7 storms formed in June and July, which means that 21 formed thereafter!!

[wxman57]

Predictions for this season are for 16 or 17 storms.

All recent (since 1990) seasons with 16 or more storms ( taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_At ... ne_seasons ):

1990: 16 (July 22 - Oct 21)
1995: 21 (June 02 - Nov 03)
1999: 16 (June 11 - Nov 23)
2000: 19 (June 07 - Oct 29)
2001: 17 (June 04 - Dec 06)
2003: 21 (April 20 - Dec 11)
2004: 16 (July 31 - Dec 03)
2005: 31 (June 08 - Jan 06)
2007: 17 (May 09 - Dec 13)
2008: 17 (May 30 - Nov 10)
2010: 21 (June 25 - Nov 07)

Only 2 16+ seasons have not had a storm prior to July during this time period. Every season is different, so this should be interesting as always.

I think a fair part of those early named storms in the list above is due to more liberal naming conventions than prior to 1990. Plus, we're naming subtropical storms now, which accounts for the April and May storms. I'm quite confident we'll see 14-15 named storms this season, probably starting in mid to late July. Not as many as last year, but I think they'll track farther west and there will be more threats to the northern Caribbean islands, the northern Gulf Coast and the southeast U.S.

[dwsqos2]

There were many people who correctly anticipated the arrival of warm ENSO conditions in 2006. I don't think any god had anything to do with El Nino's arrival.

I think we should all stick our heads in the sand and make no effort whatsoever to improve seasonal forecasting. Really, this is a dumb argument. Using this logic we would still have 1000 mile errors for three-day track forecasts.