Upcoming week - July 25-31

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

Oh boy. Well, let’s start with Bret. For the most part, I got this one right. I pegged the peak intensity of 60-70 mph perfectly as winds reached 65 mph. However, that occurred Monday night instead of Tuesday as I had predicted, but at least the timing was really only 12 hours or less. I also had Bret dissipating or becoming extratropical on Thursday, and it happened Friday morning. OK, still not the worst mistake I could make or have made. Besides, the timing of track and the general weakening were otherwise very solid, with a slow motion until Tuesday and then speeding up. All things considered, the Bret prediction was definitely not perfect, but still a very decent one.

I also was right in not buying into the low developing in the Gulf of Mexico into anything significant, which some models were drooling over. I should have been more confident, but accuracy still probably counts more than confidence when looking at the big picture.

The problem is that nobody saw Cindy coming whatsoever, including me. Granted, she was a fish that never came remotely close to land, but Cindy did get very respectably strong for an entity no model foresaw even as the system became an Invest, with winds as high as 60 mph. Confidence for no other development was 90%, and this really drilled that area to smithereens.

Add it all up: Bret’s grade is probably an A-, the Gulf an A, and everywhere else an F (thanks again Cindy for coming out of nowhere and then intensifying). Alright, I guess really only Cindy killed an otherwise very decent week for me. This week’s grade will be a B.

However, confidence as a result in any non-development situations may now be lower than ever after these two storms. How does this week look?

Current situation and models

Maybe I should just do the current situation, given how terrible the models were in sniffing out Bret and Cindy? They even tried to drop Invest 90L, though there is some good reason. This disturbance is not terribly strong and is hovering near mountainous land masses such as Hispaniola. In order to develop, this will need to get further west away from this land. However, then it could run into Jamaica. The NAM and NOGAPS develop it in the western Caribbean, but no other reliable model or pro met seems to agree with these two models. After that, it would likely run into Central America or the Yucatan. Reaching the Gulf of Mexico is possible, but there are still very few hints that anything will develop there this upcoming week.

Nothing else looks imminent for development this upcoming week. Then again, that was true last week and Cindy came out of nowhere, can I say that enough? I think not.

Recent history

The following storms have developed in the last week of July in the satellite era:

An unnamed storm in 1964
Anna in 1969
Subtropical Storm Alfa in 1973
Blanche in 1975
Anna in 1976
Amelia in 1978
Chantal in 1989
Bertha in 1990
Dean in 1995
Erin in 1995
Cesar in 1996
Alex in 1998
Chantal in 2007

Before I look at how many became hurricanes of this batch, I must call something to attention. That is 13 storms that have formed, but a total of six of these storms developed in subtropical latitudes. That’s only seven storms forming in the tropics, so the odds aren’t that great. Of this whole set of 13, only five would become hurricanes: Blanche, 1989 Chantal, Bertha, Erin, and Cesar. Blanche and Bertha formed in the subtropics, while the other three developed from tropical disturbances. Therefore, the odds of a hurricane in the subtropics for this upcoming week is 1/3, while for a tropical systems is close to 50/50.

For the storms forming in the tropics, Amelia, 1989 Chantal, and Dean all formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Erin also developed pretty close to home, in the Bahamas. 1969 Anna, Cesar, and Alex all formed further east, though Cesar didn’t get named until it was in the Caribbean.

A couple of storms from the prior week were still active coming in. Dorothy in 1966 and Franklin in 2005 were still out spinning over open Atlantic waters erratically, Bob in 1985 was making landfall in South Carolina, and Arthur in 1990 was about to dissipate near Jamaica.

So what does this all tell us?

This isn’t a very ideal week to see tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic, unless maybe if it’s an El Nino year. Too many storms that have developed this upcoming week did so in subtropical latitudes, and most of the ones that developed from tropical disturbances just couldn’t really get off the ground except in the Gulf of Mexico. I know the models can’t really be trusted, but Invest 90L is going to have a tough go of it this week in terms of developing further. Plus, the western Caribbean has never seen a development this upcoming week in the satellite era.

The Prediction

Well, I’m not going to go into this week’s prediction overly confident that nothing will develop. As repeated ad nauseam, the models did a very poor job sniffing out Bret and Cindy. However, it’s hard to see development with Invest 90L in my opinion, or anywhere else in the Atlantic. I predict no development for Invest 90L or any other disturbance in the Atlantic this upcoming week. Confidence is 65%.

-Andrew92

[Florida1118]

Looks like ya had a bad week this week...ecspecially if Emily forms...

[Andrew92]

Time to evaluate! Rough week.....

Well, this past week seemed to really hinge on Invest 90L, which of course became Tropical Storm Don during the week. Unfortunately, I predicted no development for this disturbance, so I am automatically getting a bad grade. Invest 91L also has come awfully close to development, but hasn’t done it yet that anyone knows of. One only slightly mitigating factor towards my grade is that Don was weaker than expected. Confidence was also limited, due to how untrustworthy the models have been in recent weeks. However, I take very small comfort in that, and while I’ll give myself a passing grade, it won’t exactly be a world-beating one. My grade for this past week is a D.

First week of August come up shortly.

-Andrew92