Upcoming week - August 8-14

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Well Emily was certainly the interesting one to track, even if weaker than expected! This was a very low-confidence prediction, as I was hoping I got the gist of it at least, but I still try to get as many particulars down as possible. I did generally get the gist of this storm’s path, but definitely not the intensity. The environment was much less favorable than expected, though the track was close to what I was saying. About the only deviation in that end on my prediction was that this storm turned northwest far later than I was expecting. I expected that to happen as a turn to take it between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola; instead, it made the turn near Haiti and Cuba. I was correct in analyzing a rainfall threat to several of the islands while Emily was there. But, that intensity portion…ugh. This was nowhere close to having a chance to become a hurricane, with or without land.

Elsewhere, I successfully nailed no development for the wave behind Emily, the proposed low in the Gulf of Mexico (where was that again?), and anywhere else in the Atlantic.

However, it really comes back to Emily. Overall, while not a very good prediction, this was extremely tough with what I had to work with. My grade for this past week is a C-.

New week to look at, let’s take a look!

Current situation and models

Emily has dissipated off the East Coast and should not re-develop. Elsewhere, Invest 92L has been christened off the coast of Africa. Conditions are not exactly favorable for development right now in that part of the world, with plenty of dry air and strong wind shear. Development is probably at least five days away, when it gets to an area near about where Emily formed. However, even there conditions have not shown to be all the way favorable, as Emily just dealt with some strong shear of her own. The Euro seems to be the one model performing halfway decent so far this year, and doesn’t really do anything with this wave this upcoming week.

There is also some chatter about a wave still over Africa behind Invest 92L. However, it will have to go through the same environment as this Invest, and would probably be just as slow to develop. Then again, GFS does detect something in about nine days or so near the Lesser Antilles, so I guess it could be this. Oh wait, that’s next week.

Nothing else looks like a threat to develop this upcoming week.

Recent history

Last week there was a definite spike in the number of named storms that developed, so for now we’ll just hone in on the Main Development Region, which appears to be the best shot for any development this upcoming week. Since 1960, the following storms have definitely this upcoming week in that region:

Alma in 1974
Cora in 1978
Bonnie in 1980
Fran in 1990
Cindy in 1993
Felix in 1995
Danielle in 2004
Dean in 2007
Ana in 2009

I will also throw out that Dennis in 1981 had just formed and was churning in this same region for much of this upcoming week. This would make the total ten storms in this region since 1960 this upcoming week. Of these ten storms, six would become hurricanes: Cora, Bonnie, Dennis, Felix, Danielle, and Dean. However, Dennis is the only one of these six that became one much later in life.

As for the tracks of these storms, surprisingly few re-curved north and out to sea. Bonnie, Felix, and Danielle are the only ones that eventually did without hitting land. Dennis in 1981 later would, but not before venturing the Caribbean and along the Southeast Coast later in life. These four re-curvers all became hurricanes (though remember Dennis did so much later). That means only two storms that did not re-curve did become hurricanes: Cora and Dean. Cora was also only a C1 hurricane over open waters in 1978, while Dean would grow much stronger a bit later on (it had actually just become a named storm when August 14 ended, the last day of this upcoming week). All the other four storms just could not get off the ground, with really all of them being no more than minimal tropical storms that either ran into land (Alma, Fran, and Cindy), or in Ana’s case, dealt with strong wind shear due to an El Nino situation.

So what does this all tell us?

With Invest 92L in an unfavorable environment for development, chances are high that it will stay weak and keep churning westward. This would put it closer to land and give it less of an opportunity to re-curve, though it is still possible as Emily has just showed us. This very situation also lessens the chances that a hurricane will form out of this disturbance, and maybe even the one behind it. Yes, Dean pulled it off in 2007 quite spectacularly, but the odds are greatly against it. With Emily already unable to get off the ground this past week in that same area, I don’t buy that that is a very likely scenario, at least right now.

The Prediction

With Emily gone and Invest 92L still several days away from developing at least, this week should be somewhat easier. Then again, as long as there’s an Invest, there’s that chance that models may not be picking up something well, as has been the case with several storms so far this year. Still, the Euro has done as somewhat good of a job as can be expected, so my prediction will really weigh on that model and history alone. With little to nothing being suggested by the Euro in terms of development, and no re-curve also anticipated, the odds are low of a hurricane per history. However, I think odds of anything are low to begin with. I predict no development for Invest 92L this upcoming week. Confidence is 70%.

Elsewhere, I predict no tropical cyclone development for the wave behind Invest 92L still over Africa, or from anything else this upcoming week. Confidence is 85%.

-Andrew92

[BigB0882]

Thanks, I enjoy reading your posts. I agree with you but I would probably go even higher than 70% on the confidence of no development this week on ex92L. Maybe next week things will get more exciting.

[Andrew92]

I went with 70% on Invest 92L because of how poor the other models have been, plus the fact that I can't recall how many consecutive Invests now have developed this year. I see what you're saying though, but this year has proven that anything is possible.

-Andrew92

[Migle]

Welp... Better luck this week Andrew

[Andrew92]

Time to evaluate, a little late because I was out of town all weekend so I'm going to be winging it a little.

This week I predicted no tropical development. Unfortunately, Franklin decided to come and quickly go late in the week, ruining that prediction. But then Gert had to come out on Sunday and make it even worse on me! Truth be told, I probably did about as well as could have been expected for this past week, but the damage is still there. I will be a bit generous and give myself a B- for this past week.

Got a new week coming up, may take a little while to post it.

-Andrew92